The Chicago Bulls learned the hard way that winning the trade deadline on paper or in the media does not guarantee a spot in the playoffs, or even the play-in tournament.
At the time of the blockbuster trade that landed All-Star Nikola Vucevic, Chicago was 19-24 and in contention for a playoff spot. Then the Bulls lost Zach LaVine because of the league's health and safety protocols, saw their defense rank 29th over the final two months and finished the season on a 12-17 skid to miss the play-in. Then they watched helplessly as they failed to move up in the lottery, guaranteeing they'd send this year's No. 8 overall pick to Orlando.
Now the question heading into the offseason is: How can Chicago, stripped of draft picks from the Vucevic trade and likely over the salary cap, improve its roster?
The roster
Don't expect Bulls vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas to be content with the roster, despite having two All-Stars in LaVine and Vucevic.
"We will not settle for mediocrity here," Karnisovas said in his first end-of-season media conference.
Mediocrity is a 31-41 record and missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
"We place expectations on our team about winning games," Karnisovas said. "We are certainly not satisfied. But we will learn from it, adjust and make sure what did not go well does not happen again. We will continue being aggressive in our efforts to make this team better, whether that's through trades, free agency or the draft."
Doing that, however, will take creativity. The Bulls don't have a first-round pick this year, and the next pick they're allowed to trade comes in 2026. There is a hole at the point guard position, especially after the injury to Coby White, and generating the cap space necessary to fill that hole would likely come at the expense of restricted free agent Lauri Markkanen and possibly veterans Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky.
If the Bulls stay over the cap, they will have their $9.5 million midlevel exception available. However, that exception likely gets them into the conversation for only backup point guards such as T.J. McConnell, Cameron Payne and Ish Smith. The Bulls could explore sign-and-trade scenarios, but once again that would see them lose a combination of Markkanen, Young and Satoransky. For example, does it make sense to call Brooklyn to explore a Spencer Dinwiddie-for-Young trade?
"We're going to add talent to our roster and from there get better and come back improved and better so we don't have to sit out another postseason," Karnisovas said. "I don't like to watch postseason games now just because I'm not happy that we're not in it. I'm a competitive guy. Talking to all the players, they're disappointed. We're disappointed. And we're going into the next season to make sure it doesn't happen again."
The Zach LaVine contract options
The Bulls will offer LaVine a four-year, $105 million extension on the first day of free agency, and the All-Star will politely decline, not because he doesn't want to stay in Chicago, but because the extension doesn't make business sense. LaVine also has leverage, because the Bulls would not have traded two first-round picks for Vucevic if they didn't consider him part of the team's future.
As a result of the four-year, $78 million offer sheet LaVine signed with the Sacramento Kings (which the Bulls matched), Chicago is limited to offering him a 120% raise off his $19.5 million salary in 2021-22. That means the maximum starting point in any extension is $23.4 million, $11.4 million less than the projected max when he becomes a free agent in 2022. LaVine is coming off a year in which he posted career highs in points (27.5), field goal percentage (50.6%), 3-point percentage (41.6%), rebounds (5.1), assists (5.1), effective field goal percentage (59.4%) and true shooting percentage (63.3%). He made his first All-Star appearance, earned a spot on Team USA and is in the prime of his career, turning 26 this past March. LaVine has missed only six games due to injury since the 2019-20 season. While the contract would guarantee him $105 million, it is far below what his projected value will be as a free agent in 2022.
However, because he has reached the third-year anniversary of his contract, LaVine is also eligible to have his contract renegotiated. A renegotiation would see his current $19.5 million cap hit increased by the amount of cap space Chicago has. That number would then get extended out an additional four seasons. For example, if the Bulls were under the cap by $14 million, they could bump LaVine's contract up to a max salary for this season ($33.6 million) and extend his contract out an additional four seasons. The total amount would come to $194.8 million, a $90 million increase on what an extension would be.
While it sounds like an easy decision, a renegotiation comes with obstacles for the Bulls. For starters, Chicago is over the salary cap when you factor in the $20.2 million Markkanen cap hold along with the partially guaranteed contracts of Young, Satoransky and Ryan Arcidiacono (team option). For the Bulls to create $12.4 million in room, all their free agents (including Markkanen) would get renounced and the team option of Arcidiacono declined.
Instead of having the $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual exception, the Bulls would be left with the $4.9 million room and veteran minimum exception. There have been only eight players to have their contract renegotiated, none since Robert Covington with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017.
The restricted free agency of Lauri Markkanen
The only thing guaranteed about the future of Lauri Markkanen is that the Bulls will tender him a one-year, $9 million qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent. Not offering the qualifying offer would allow Markkanen to walk away from Chicago without any compensation in return. By making Markkanen a restricted free agent, the Bulls retain more control over trade options, even if they don't intend to re-sign him or match an offer sheet.
Markkanen, 23, is a rare 7-foot-tall stretch-4 who is coming off a career year on offense: highs in field goal percentage (47.9%), three-point percentage (39.4%), true shooting percentage (61.4%) and effective field goal percentage (58.8%).
"I think Lauri is an essential part of our team, and we hope he is part of what we're building here," Karnisovas said.
For all the positives on the offensive end, there are plenty of flaws. There are the durability issues that have seen him miss 69 games over the past four seasons, including 15 this year with a sprained shoulder. He is averaging a career low in free throw attempts (1.9); his defensive rebounding percentage declined from 23.4 in his second year to 16.9 this year; and his midrange game is non-existent (3-for-18 this year from 10-19 feet).
And of course, the big question is how he fits long term alongside Vucevic, and whether Chicago wants to commit starter money to a player who is a sixth man. Markkanen started the first 23 games this season, including the first game with Vucevic in the lineup, but was moved to the bench the following game.
In the 16 games off the bench, Markkanen shot 47.7% from the field and 41.7% from 3, but saw his minutes decline from 30.0 to 22.4 per game.
A starting contract for Markkanen projects to be $13 million, according to ProFitX, and Chicago could certainly go in that direction, looking to flip him down the road once his trade restriction on Jan. 15 expires or maybe even keep him. However, Markkanen would be better suited signing the qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent if the team-friendly contract is the only offer on the table.
A sign-and-trade is certainly an option, but Markkanen would be subject to the complicated rules of Base Year Compensation, meaning his outgoing salary in a trade would count as 50% and not the full amount.
For example, if Markkanen signs a deal in a sign-and-trade with a first-year salary of $15 million, only $7.5 million of that would count in outgoing salary for the Bulls, while the acquiring team would have to be able to fit the full $15 million.
There is always the option of letting Markkanen explore his options in free agency and get an offer sheet from a team like Oklahoma City or San Antonio. The Bulls would then have a decision to make: either match the offer sheet or let him walk away for nothing, similar to what happened to the Kings last offseason with Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Not signing Markkanen still has the Bulls over the salary cap, but gives them more flexibility to re-sign Daniel Theis and opens up the possibility of having a max salary slot in 2022.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Bench depth at shooting guard, small forward and center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: second-round pick
Potential cap space but at the cost of Young, Satoransky and Markkanen
The sign-and-trade option with Markkanen
$9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual exception
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Bulls have until Aug. 1 to extend a one-year qualifying offer to Markkanen and Javonte Green. Markkanen averaged a minimum of 34.25 starts over the past two seasons and has reached starter criteria, earning him a $9.0 million offer. Green was acquired at the trade deadline and appeared in only six games, averaging 5.5 minutes. His one-year contract is for $1.9 million. The qualifying offer will tag each player with the restricted free-agent status, allowing the Bulls to match an offer sheet.
• Young and Satoransky will both have their full contracts guaranteed on Aug. 2. Young will see his guaranteed portion increase from $6 million to $14.19 million and Satoransky from $5 million to $10 million.
• Arcidiacono is entering the last year of a three-year, $9 million contract that he signed back in 2019. The undrafted guard out of Villanova has seen his minutes decrease over the past three seasons: 24.2, 16.0 and now 10.8. The Bulls have until Aug. 1 to decline the team-friendly $3 million contract.
Restrictions
• The earliest first-round pick the Bulls can trade is in the 2026 draft.
Extension eligible
• The Bulls can add an additional three years and up to $85.6 million of new money in an extension for Vucevic. The All-Star is extension eligible because he has reached the second anniversary of the four-year, $100 million contract he signed with the Magic back in 2019. Because he has two years left on his original contract, the deadline to extend is the last day prior to the start of the regular season.
• The Bulls also have Al-Farouq Aminu, Young (if his contract is guaranteed), Satoransky (if his contract is guaranteed) and Arcidiacono (if his team option is exercised) eligible for extensions. It is unlikely all four players will receive a new contract.
The draft
As a result of the trade to acquire Vucevic, the Bulls will send Orlando their first-round pick in July. Chicago also owes the Magic a first in 2023 (top-four protected). The first is top-three protected in 2024 if not conveyed in the prior season. If it doesn't convey in 2023 or 2024, the Bulls will send the Magic second-round picks in 2026 and 2027.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Chicago selecting in July:
No. 38 (via NOP): Roko Prkacin, PF, Cibona Zagreb
Karnisovas did not make a trade in his first draft as head of basketball operations.