The Thunder made a decision last offseason to begin a rebuilding process. That resulted in just their second trip to the lottery in the past 12 seasons, but Oklahoma City is now in a position -- with young players, draft picks and roster flexibility -- to sustain long-term success.
The offseason starts with the July draft, and we will see what direction Oklahoma City goes in with a league-high six picks.
From there, the Thunder will focus on the rookie extension of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and explore multiple options on how to use each one of their four trade exceptions, which range from $27.3 million to $10 million.
The draft
The Thunder did not have good luck in the lottery. They could have come away with two top-5 picks, but instead their own pick fell to No. 6 and the Rockets' pick remained in the top four, keeping it with Houston.
Although this year's draft is projected to be top-heavy, history has shown that Oklahoma City is still in position to draft a solid player at No. 6.
Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and the Thunder's own Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have all been selected outside of the top five.
The Thunder have five additional picks beyond No. 6 (16, 18, 34, 36, 55), so there is a lot of work to do leading up to the July 29 draft.
"We're so distributed throughout the draft that we're going to have a look at a lot of different players, just because of where we're picking in the second or picking in the first, we're covering a lot of territory that way," GM Sam Presti noted. "You're talking about adding a lot of young talent into the NBA, and that talent never goes 1-2-3-4-5-6-7."
The Thunder will cast a wide net in evaluating players in the lottery, first, second round and the ones who go undrafted for their two-way spots.
Below are some of the options that Oklahoma City will explore:
1. What is the cost to get into the top four?
Even with a bevy of future draft picks, it is unlikely that the Thunder have enough to move up to the top overall pick held by Detroit. Of course, if the Thunder put most of their draft capital on the table, the Pistons would certainly have to listen. For example, is the No. 6 pick along with all three unprotected firsts from the LA Clippers enough? Unlikely, because Detroit would have to take a leap of faith that at least one of those firsts lands in the lottery. Now, if Oklahoma City wants to entertain multiple unprotected firsts of its own, that could be a different story.
In the next month, the Thunder front office will rank its top 60 players and determine how much separation in talent there is from a player like Jalen Green to Jalen Suggs. The Thunder officials will also put a value on each of the picks in front of them. For example, the Magic pick at No. 5 could have a trade value of their own No. 5 pick and the Clippers' unprotected first in 2022, if a player like Jonathan Kuminga or Scottie Barnes is available. One option that I would be cautious on exploring is moving prized guard Gilgeous-Alexander for an opportunity to move into the top four. Although Gilgeous-Alexander is set for a significant pay raise, he is only 22 years old and is coming off an All-Star-caliber season.
2. Can 16 and 18 get you into the top 12?
Last year the Thunder packaged 23 and 28 (and Ricky Rubio) to Minnesota for the No. 17 pick (Aleksej Pokusevski). Some recent examples include Sacramento in 2017 trading the rights to Zach Collins (No. 10) to Portland for Justin Jackson (No. 15) and Harry Giles (No. 20). The Nuggets in 2014 moved the No. 11 pick (rights to Doug McDermott) to Chicago for No. 16 (rights to Jusuf Nurkic) and No. 19 pick (Gary Harris).
3. Do we trade 16 or 18 for a future first?
We could make the argument that if the Thunder had two picks in the late 20s, they should look to move one for a future first. However, considering that the return value is likely a lottery-protected first, Oklahoma City should pass.
4. Should we move back in the draft with either 16 or 18 and acquire a future second?
The Thunder in 2019 swapped 21 for 23 with the Grizzlies and acquired a 2024 second from Memphis.
5. Acquiring a contract that has salary but with a first-round pick attached
The Thunder jumped ahead of the line when they acquired the $73 million owed to Kemba Walker and the No. 16 pick from Boston for Al Horford. With three first-round picks, is there an appetite for a fourth? The Nets are likely going to look to shed money to reduce their luxury tax bill, and does taking back the $20 million owed to DeAndre Jordan and the No. 27 pick make sense?
6. Can the roster sustain six draft picks, including three in the second round?
Including their four players on non-guaranteed contracts, the Thunder have 11 players under contract entering the draft. On the surface, selecting six players in the draft is not sustainable when it comes to roster construction. However, in the past two seasons, 18 players drafted in the second round have signed two-way contracts. Oklahoma City has three second-round picks and can take that same approach, draft a player and leave him in Europe or trade out of the second round.
The future draft assets
Including this upcoming draft, Oklahoma City has 18 first-round picks and 18 second-round picks through 2027.
However, this is not an NFL team that has 53 roster spots, so Oklahoma City is not going to keep each of those picks. The overflow of draft assets gives Oklahoma City the option to package and maybe move up in the draft or identify an established young veteran who can help the roster now and in the future.
Because the Thunder have so many first-round picks in the next seven years, we thought it was a good idea to break each first into four different tiers based on their perceived value.
Tier A-1
Despite Paul George signing a five-year, $190 million extension and the likelihood that Kawhi Leonard agrees to a long-term deal this offseason, the Clippers' three unprotected firsts and two pick swaps have high value.
If either player is lost for an extended period of time because of an injury, the Clippers go from a team competing for a championship to a borderline playoff team.
The 76ers' first-round pick in 2025 is top six protected, but there is uncertainty as to what the roster will look like four years from now. Ben Simmons (if he is still there) and Joel Embiid are projected to earn $100 million, leaving Philadelphia with limited options on how the rest of the roster is built.
2021-2027: Own first*
2022: Unprotected first from LA Clippers
2023: Right to swap firsts with LA Clippers
2024: Unprotected first from LA Clippers
2025: Right to swap firsts with LA Clippers
2025: Top six protected first from Philadelphia (2026 (top 4 protected) and 2027 (top 4 protected)
2026: Unprotected first from LA Clippers
*The Thunder will send Atlanta a first in 2022 if it falls outside of the top 14
Tier A-2
The Rockets' first-round picks that are owed in 2024 and 2026 are not in the top tier because there is no guarantee that Oklahoma City will receive them in either season.
Unlike the 76ers' first, which rolls over in consecutive seasons if not conveyed, the Thunder receive two second-round picks if Houston's pick falls in the top four in 2024. They will also receive a 2026 second-round pick if the 2026 pick doesn't convey.
2024: Top-4 protected first from Houston
2026: Top-4 protected first from Houston
Tier B-1
The two picks in this year's draft (16 and 18) have value because they are a known quantity from a trade perspective. A team looking to trade for them doesn't have to project out how another team might perform in a future year to figure out where the pick will land.
The Thunder could keep both picks, package them to move into the lottery or trade one for a future first.
2021: First from Boston
2021: First from Miami
Tier B-2
There are three first round picks on the Tier B-2 list, including the first acquired from Phoenix in the Chris Paul trade. The Suns' pick at one time was projected to be in the teens but will now likely fall into the 20s. The same starting five that carried Phoenix to the conference finals is all under contract next season.
The Miami and Denver first-round picks are lottery protected and turn into three future seconds (one from Miami and two from Denver) if not conveyed.
2022: Top 12 protected first from Phoenix (2023 (top 10 protected), 2024 (top 8 protected) and 2025 (unprotected)
2023: Top 14 protected first from Miami (top 14 protected in 2024 and 2025)
2023: Top 14 protected first from Denver (top 14 protected in 2024 and 2025)
2025: The right to swap with Houston (if outside of the top 10) or Brooklyn
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The rookie max extension of De'Aaron Fox last November and Jamal Murray the year before set the bar when it comes to extension talks of Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder.
"We have a big conversation that we'll be able to have with Shai coming up in the offseason," Presti said. "We're really looking forward to that. His impact on the team was pretty obvious, and we think he's a very, very bright rising player in the NBA. We couldn't be more excited about the growth he took, both as a player but also as a leader during the year."
According to ProFitX, Gilgeous-Alexander outplayed his 2020-21 contract by $21 million and projects as a max player in 2022-23.
He is only 22 years old and is coming off a season where he averaged 23.7 points, 50.8% from the field, 41.8% from three, 5.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds. In the 35 games he played, Oklahoma City was 16-19. Without him in the lineup, the Thunder were 6-31.
"He made quantum jumps in his assist rate," Presti said. "I think he may have led the league in drives. He improved his 3-point shooting. All of those things are tangible and obvious. I thought he helped a lot of our guys improve and put them in position to be successful, and that got much tougher when he wasn't on the court, which is an indicator that he's a good player. That's what you want."
He recently ranked No. 10 in ESPN's 25-under-25 rankings and although his 2018 draftmates Luka Doncic and Trae Young have received more national attention, Gilgeous-Alexander has the potential to become a top-5 guard in the league.
Waiting until next offseason to sign Gilgeous-Alexander would preserve $14 million in cap space because of his $16.8 million cap hold. However, the Thunder have preferred to build through the draft and trades rather than go after a big free agent.
The patient approach of retooling
Presti is aware that in order to succeed in this league you have to build sustainable success as it relates to your roster.
"When we do get back to the postseason, we want it to be an arrival and not an appearance, arrival meaning that we can return, we can be there, we can take some chance or bad fortune and not have it sink us completely," he said. "We've seen the benefit of that during our earlier years. We don't want to be in a position where we get there but we have no way to get back. That's the focus and the precision with which we're working."
Don't expect the Thunder to take a big swing for the fences via trade or use their cap space on free agents who barely move the needle. Instead, Oklahoma City will continue to stay the course of drafting, developing, signing under the radar free agents who fit their timeline while also taking advantage of being in a position to take back salary with additional draft assets.
Besides their six draft picks, Oklahoma City has 11 players under contract and four trade exceptions of $27.5, $12.8, $10.1 and $9.6 million. Although they could create $36 million in cap space, the Thunder will likely stay over the cap with their exceptions.
The Thunder are well aware that the retooling of their roster is not going to happen overnight.
"You stick to your principles, you stick to your values, you think in the best interests of the organization long term," Presti said. "In our case we're really focused on building a sustainably great team in Oklahoma City. I think good things will happen, and I think we should be optimistic about that and continue to be forward facing with that respect."
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Depth at shooting guard and small forward
Continued development of their young players
Resources to build the roster
The draft: multiple first-round picks (Own, Boston and Miami)
Future draft assets
Foundation: Gilgeous-Alexander, Bazley, Pokusevski, Maledon and Dort
Trade exceptions: $27.3M, $19.5M and $7.4M (but would lose them if they elect cap space)
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual (if over the cap) or $4.9M room midlevel
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Thunder have until August 1 to tender Svi Mykhailiuk a $2.1 million qualifying offer. In the 30 games since he was acquired from Detroit, Mykhailiuk averaged a career-high 10.3 points and shot 43.8% from the field.
• Oklahoma City also has until August 1 to tender Tony Bradley a $5.2 million qualifying offer. Bradley was acquired at the trade deadline in exchange for George Hill and averaged 8.7 points and 6.1 rebounds in 22 games.
• The Thunder have two of the best value contracts in the NBA with Isaiah Roby and Kenrich Williams. Both players are on non-guaranteed contracts with Roby seeing his $1.8 million salary guaranteed on August 4. Williams has a December 15 trigger date for his $2 million salary. Roby averaged 8.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and started 34 out of 61 games this season. In the 66 games (13 starts), the forward averaged 8.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and shot a career high 53.3% from three.
• There is no offseason guarantee date for Gabriel Deck ($3.7 million) and Charlie Brown ($1.7 million).
Restrictions
• The four players on non-guaranteed contracts -- Roby, Williams, Deck and Brown -- have no outgoing value in a trade.
• Walker cannot be aggregated in a trade until August 2.
Extension eligible
• Walker is extension eligible but because of the trade, Oklahoma City can add only one additional season to the two years remaining on his contract. It is unlikely he will receive an extension.
• Roby can be extended for an additional three or four seasons (if the team option is declined).
The draft
The Thunder will enter the July draft with a league high six selections.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Oklahoma City selecting in July:
No. 6 (own): Jonathan Kuminga, SF/PF, G League Ignite
No. 16 (via BOS): Alperen Sengun, PF/C, Besiktas
No. 18 (via MIA): Moses Moody, SG, Arkansas
No. 34 (own): Josh Christopher, SG, Arizona State
No. 36 (via CLE): Marcus Bagley, SF/PF, Arizona State
No. 55 (via DEN): Matthew Hurt, PF, Duke
The Thunder have made six draft-night-related trades in the past two seasons.