In the past nine seasons, the Orlando Magic have experienced a playoff drought of six consecutive years, then reached the first round in back-to-back seasons and are now back to a full scale rebuild that started at the trade deadline, when the Magic dealt away All-Star Nikola Vucevic and veterans Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. The return value was three first-round picks and young players RJ Hampton and Wendell Carter Jr., who were added to a remaining young core that already had a full rotation of players with five or less years of experience.
Orlando will add more of those types of players this summer, with three picks in the top 35 of the 2021 NBA draft. How will the Magic approach making those picks and continuing the rebuilding process?
The draft
Though the Magic didn't land the top pick in the draft -- and actually fell from No. 3 to No. 5 after the lottery -- they are in a unique position, thanks to the Nikola Vucevic trade, which gave them Chicago's No. 8 overall pick. Because of that, Orlando could add two top-10 picks to its roster on the same night.
Coincidentally, the last two teams to do so -- the Atlanta Hawks in 2019 and the Phoenix Suns in 2016 -- are both in the conference finals this year.
Still, that doesn't mean the Magic are locked into making either, or both, of the selections.
"I think that there is a little murkiness as far as different teams, different needs kind of around the places where our picks fall," said Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman. "I definitely believe that we'll be getting calls on one or both. I don't know if that means that teams are going to try to package picks below us to move up or if teams are going to be calling from above to move down for both picks. That stuff all remains to be seen. We have to explore all those options."
Those options include:
1. Retaining the two lottery picks
There is nothing wrong with taking a conservative approach. Standing pat would see the Magic take the two best available players on their draft board.
2. Moving up into the top 4
Expect the cost of getting into the top four to be rich. Besides the No. 5 pick, Orlando would likely have to include the No. 8 pick or a future first-round pick with limited protection. Is it worth giving up that much to move up one or two spots? The draft process will determine how much separation in talent there is from where Orlando is picking compared to a team like Cleveland at No. 3.
3. Trading the No. 8 pick for additional assets
This is the approach that Sacramento took in 2016. The Kings traded No. 8 (the rights to Marquese Chriss) to the Suns for No. 13 (George Papagiannis), No. 28 (Skal Labissiere) and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic. The idea behind such a move for Sacramento was to take more swings (and in one way it worked, because of the four players selected, Bogdanovic is the only one still in the NBA, though no longer with the Kings). Could the Magic decide that there's no one player at No. 8 that they like, and instead look to move the pick for multiple picks or players? One option, for example, would be trading No. 8 to the Oklahoma City Thunder for No. 16, No. 18 and one of the many future first-round picks the Thunder control. Would that be a good move for the Magic? That is a conversation the front office will have to have leading up to the draft.
4. Trading No. 33 for future assets
If the Magic do add multiple first-round picks, they'll then have to ask whether it's worth selecting an additional player with the third pick in the second round, or if that pick would have more value in a trade. Orlando currently has 11 players under contract and would have one open roster before free agency starts. Last November, teams in the 33 to 40 range all made a trade to acquire a future draft asset (a second-round pick) or part of a bigger trade that involved players under contract. The Kings traded back in the draft (35 to 40) and picked up a 2022 second from Memphis.
5. Trading the No. 5 or No. 8 pick (or both) for an established player
In 2017, Minnesota traded the No. 7 pick (Lauri Markkanen), Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine to Chicago for Jimmy Butler and the No. 16 pick (Justin Patton). This approach would contradict the rebuilding of the roster that Orlando started at the trade deadline.
Building a sustainable roster
After tearing down a roster that seemed to have topped out as first-round playoff fodder, the goal for Orlando is not to build a team full of quick fixes to get back to the playoffs. The Magic need to establish a foundation that can have increasing success for the foreseeable future.
"In all candor, we have to also accept the fact that our core was aging, contracts were shortening and ultimately, was this a team that was going to win a championship? We had to ask ourselves that question," Weltman said.
They did, and ultimately decided that the answer was no. Yes, Vucevic was a two-time All-Star and under contract for two more seasons, but Evan Fournier was set to become a free agent and Aaron Gordon would have entered the 2021-22 season on an expiring contract. Once the decision was made to trade Vucevic, it only made sense to deal Fournier and Gordon too.
The Magic are in for a long rebuild and yes, the tearing down the roster at the deadline was the smart approach.
However, this current team looks like it was picked in an expansion draft. The backbone of the roster -- Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke and RJ Hampton -- is made up of players who have been drafted since 2017. There are no blue-chip prospects on the roster outside of Isaac, and his status remains in question, as he hasn't played since tearing the ACL in his left knee on Aug. 2, 2020. Fultz, the former No. 1 overall pick, is also coming off a torn ACL.
Can a return to health for Fultz and Isaac, another year of development under the right head coach, and the addition of two top-10 picks change Orlando's fortunes?
Possibly, but for Orlando to have sustainable success not just for two seasons but the future, the Magic have to get it right. Getting it right means hiring a coach who has the patience for a rebuild, a strong player development background and most important, communication and relationship skills to work with a young roster.
The front office will need to show patience and not skip the steps in the rebuild.
The resources to build the roster
There is a sense of optimism on what the future holds in Orlando.
"I can say that in my time here, I've never been more excited about the prospects for our team," Weltman said during an end-of-the season media Zoom session.
Those prospects include:
Isaac and Fultz
Weltman talked to NBA.com in late June and addressed the health of both players.
"The first part of any recovery, any rehabilitation, starts with attitude and approach," he said. "Our fans know that Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz are about as good as it gets in their approach, their work, their attitude, their team orientation, their optimism, (and) their belief. So, everything has been going well with them. I always kind of try to have it dummied down for my own understanding to say like 'no setbacks.' So, no setbacks. Everything is on track. Obviously, we're not an organization that's going to put timelines on things like that, but they're both moving forward very well."
Controllable contracts
This year's two lottery picks will join Bamba, Carter, Anthony, Okeke and Hampton as players on rookie scale contracts. All seven players will become restricted free agents when their contracts expire.
Tradable contracts: Gary Harris, Terrence Ross and Michael Carter-Williams
Harris is on an expiring $20.5 million contract. Ross has two years left ($12.5 and $11.5 million) and has value for a playoff team looking to add bench scoring. Carter-Williams averaged 8.9 points last year and is on expiring $3.3 million contract.
Draft assets
Besides their three picks in July, the Magic have all their future first-round picks. They also have a 2023 first from Chicago (top-4 protected) and a 2025 first from Denver (top-5 protected). In total, the Magic will have ten first round picks in the next seven years.
Cap flexibility
The Magic are over the cap this season but are in a position to have close to $50 million in room heading into the 2022 offseason. In 2023, only Isaac, Fultz, Anthony, Okeke, Hampton and their two lottery picks this season will be under contract.
Offseason cap breakdown
The Magic have $93 million in guaranteed contracts but are over the cap when factoring in both first-round picks and both exceptions ($9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual). The big offseason additions along with two lottery picks is the return of starters Fultz and Isaac.
Team needs
Patience
A healthy Fultz and Isaac
Starting small forward
Consistency from Carter
Bamba to develop into a rotational player
Resources to build the roster
The draft: three picks in the top 35 including two in the top 10
Tradable players: Ross and Harris
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The $1.8 million contract of Dwayne Bacon will become guaranteed on August 9. Bacon played in all 72 regular season games, averaging 10.9 points in 25.7 minutes. Expect his contract to become guaranteed.
Restrictions
• The Bacon contract currently has no outgoing value in a trade because it is non-guaranteed.
Extension eligible
• Harris, who was acquired in the trade that saw Gordon shipped to Denver, is eligible to extend for an additional four seasons. Since entering the league in 2014, Harris has missed 120 games because of an injury, including thirty this season because of an abductor strain in his left thigh. Expect the Magic to use his expiring $20.5 million contract as a trade chip this season.
• If this Magic team was competing for a playoff spot, we would circle Ross as a likely extension candidate. Ross is one of the top sixth men, averaging 14.7 and 15.6 points in the past two seasons. He is eligible to sign an extension for an additional three seasons up until October 18. However, his team friendly contract makes him a valuable trade target for contending teams.
• The 2018 draft class could sign contract extensions this summer worth more than a combined $1 billion. That figure, however, is unlikely to include Bamba and Carter. This is not to say that both players are not part of Orlando's future. There is simply not enough of a body of work to reward each player with a lucrative contract. Injuries have derailed the first three years for both players. Bamba missed 35 games his rookie season with a leg injury and Carter Jr. has lost a total of 73 games in his first three seasons.
The draft
The Magic head into the draft with three picks in the top 35.
Besides their own first in each of the next seven years, Orlando also has two future firsts from Chicago and Denver. The first from the Bulls is top four protected in 2023 and top three protected in 2024. The first will turn into a 2026 and 2027 second if not conveyed. From the Aaron Gordon trade, the Magic have a top five protected first from the Nuggets in either 2025, 2026 or 2027. The first is conveyed two years after the Nuggets obligation to Oklahoma City is met.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Orlando selecting in July:
No. 5 (own): Jonathan Kuminga, SF/PF, G League Ignite
No. 8 (via CHI): Keon Johnson, SG, Tennessee
No. 33 (own): JT Thor, PF, Auburn
The Magic have made two draft night deals in the past two years. Last year, Orlando traded the No. 45 pick in the draft to Milwaukee for two future second-round picks. The previous year, the Magic sent the No. 46 pick to the Lakers for $2.2 million and their 2020 second-round pick, which was eventually rerouted to Philadelphia to acquire James Ennis at the 2020 trade deadline.