There is finally light at the end of the post-LeBron James tunnel in Cleveland.
The Cavaliers will add the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NBA draft to a solid young nucleus that includes Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro and Jarrett Allen, giving the franchise an optimistic outlook for the first time since James left for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018.
Besides the question of which player to take with that pick, the Cavaliers also have to deal with Allen's restricted free agency, a potential rookie extension for Sexton and the future of former All-Star Kevin Love, making this a big summer for Cleveland.
The draft
The draft lottery proved that luck is involved when it comes to building out a roster. Instead of sitting outside the top four for a fourth consecutive season, the Cavaliers are now in position to draft a franchise-level player.
"I think it's a tremendous opportunity. I think it really positions us well," GM Koby Altman said after the lottery. "When we started this a few years back, we talked about building through the draft and creating sustainable success. There's some real game-changers at the top of this draft, but also it puts us in a position to capitalize on different opportunities throughout the landscape of the NBA with this position."
Leading up to the July 29 draft, Altman and his front office faces multiple questions about how to proceed with the No. 3 overall pick.
Do the Cavs take the best available player even if that player is a guard -- Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs -- with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland as their starting backcourt? Sexton is eligible for an extension in the offseason. Garland will be eligible next summer.
What happens if center Evan Mobley falls to No. 3? Do the Cavaliers bypass Mobley because they plan to bring back restricted free agent Jarrett Allen, tabbed by the team as Cleveland's center of the future?
Cleveland has won a combined 60 games over the past three seasons. The Cavaliers are not in a position to pick a player based on his fit with the existing roster, even with lucrative contracts on the horizon for Allen and Sexton.
The state of the roster
It is hard to watch what Atlanta has accomplished in the playoffs and not ask: Why not Cleveland?
"I think you see the young teams in the playoffs right now have established veterans that are really helping those talented young pieces. That has to be our next step," Altman said. "I think there's a lot of that in-house. We just haven't been healthy."
Altman is right. Kevin Love was supposed to be that established veteran, but injuries have limited him to 103 games since he signed a four-year, $120 million extension after the departure of LeBron James in 2018. Love's inability to contribute more is a big reason why Cleveland's rebuild has fallen behind Atlanta's.
After the Hawks finally broke up the team that had reached the conference finals in 2015, bottoming out with a 24-58 record in 2017-18, they took a three-year approach to preserving cap space with a mindset of developing the young players they added in that time frame: Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish.
With each of the five players on rookie-scale contracts, Atlanta was then able to utilize the $50 million in cap space it had built up last summer to sign Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Rajon Rondo -- and later trade Rondo for Lou Williams, who became a key playoff contributor.
Because Cleveland does not have cap space like Atlanta did a year ago, it needs Love, Taurean Prince, Cedi Osman and Larry Nance Jr. to become those established veterans to support the young players. If they don't, Cleveland will be back in the lottery, regardless of how the young players progress on their own.
Jarrett Allen
When GM Koby Altman traded George Hill to the Bucks in 2018, he couldn't have foreseen that the deal would result in the Cavaliers adding their center of the future. In fact, the center he acquired in the deal, John Henson, played just 29 games in Cleveland before being traded to Detroit. But the Cavaliers got a future first-round pick from the Bucks, too, which put them in position to join the James Harden megadeal earlier this year, picking up Allen and his all-important Bird rights.
Without the future first-round pick from Milwaukee that the Houston Rockets coveted, the Cavaliers would not have been in position to become part of that trade. They also wouldn't have had the necessary cap space to put an offer sheet on the table if Allen had remained in Brooklyn or Houston and hit restricted free agency this offseason.
Now the priority pivots to retaining Allen beyond the 51 games he has already played in a Cavaliers uniform.
"Obviously, we traded a draft asset to get him so we certainly think highly of him," Altman said. "We want him to be here long term."
The question now becomes what cost Cleveland is willing to pay to re-sign Allen. It is easy to point at the five-year, $80 million contract Clint Capela signed in 2018 as a comparison, but that contract was signed when the salary cap was just $101.8 million -- and Capela had to wait until late July to re-sign in Houston, after cap space had evaporated from rival suitors.
Cleveland could let Allen shop for an offer sheet but unlike Capela, who entered a tough market with few options, Allen is likely to have plenty of suitors, ranging from Charlotte to New York and Toronto.
Despite the restricted tag, Allen has leverage. The Cavaliers gave up a first-round pick to get him, then bought out their starting center, Andre Drummond, to give Allen a bigger role. Even if they let him walk in free agency, they don't have the cap space to sign a comparable replacement.
If there is no deal to his liking, Allen could sign the $7.7 million qualifying offer and enter the 2022 offseason as an unrestricted free agent, though that would be considerably less than what he has proven to be worth. His salary projection in the first year, per ProFitX, is $17.2 million, which would put a four-year contract at $77.0 million (slightly more than Myles Turner in Indiana) and a five-year deal at $100 million.
An Allen contract that starts in the $17 million range would leave Cleveland with the ability to use its $9.5 million midlevel exception and still remain below the luxury tax. It would also put the Cavaliers in a position in 2022-23 to stay below the tax if Sexton is extended or possibly have them with cap space if there is a taker for Kevin Love.
Collin Sexton
Sometimes the decision to offer a player a max extension as he enters the final year of his rookie deal is easy. Just last offseason, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo were no-brainers. They'd all already been All-Stars and had led their respective teams to the playoffs.
Then there was De'Aaron Fox. The No. 5 pick in the 2017 draft had proven himself as a scorer in his first three years in the league, but he hadn't made an All-Star team and hadn't helped the Kings end their playoff drought, which has now extended to 15 seasons.
Still, Sacramento gave Fox a five-year, $168 million max extension on the first day of free agency. Like all extensions, the Kings bought more stock in the future with the belief that the upside of Fox outweighed getting into a prolonged negotiation that would have resulted in Fox becoming a restricted free agent in 2021.
When it comes to Sexton this offseason, could we see the Cavaliers follow a similar approach with the former No. 8 pick?
Sexton is a dynamic borderline All-Star who is coming off a season in which he averaged career highs in points (24.3), field goal percentage (47.5%) and assists (4.3).
While his production over the first three years of his career might not seem max worthy, the same could've been said about Fox last offseason. If Cleveland views him part of the future, it is wise to invest in him now and not wait until he is a restricted free agent.
The narrative that the Cavaliers will paint themselves into a financial corner if Allen, Sexton and Darius Garland sign lucrative contracts is incorrect. The Cavaliers will not be in the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. The deciding factor will not come down to finances but if they view Sexton as a player they can build a playoff team around.
Kevin Love
Love played just 25 games this past season, so it might've been a bit of a surprise to see him on the Team USA roster for the Tokyo Olympics. Still, there are two ways this could end up being a positive for the Cavaliers.
The first is that Love, who has been limited by injuries for much of the past three seasons, needs to prove he can play at an All-Star level if Cleveland is going to take the next step and return to the playoffs.
"He gets to play five-on-five against the best players in the world every day, and then go on and play meaningful games. That's going to be great for him," Altman said. "He knows he needs to have a big offseason and this is the perfect place for him to do that."
Love having a big offseason could pay off in a different way for the Cavaliers as well. A good performance on the world stage could be a solid audition for the other 29 teams in the NBA, allowing Cleveland to trade Love -- and the $60 million he is owed over the next two years -- while getting something in return. As of now, Love's contract is viewed around the league as underwater, and the Cavaliers would have to send out something additional just to move it. But a strong performance in the Olympics could change that narrative.
Offseason cap breakdown
The $11.7 million free-agent hold of Allen and a lottery pick has Cleveland right at the cap when free agency starts. A starting salary of $18 million for Allen would leave the Cavaliers $18 million below the luxury tax, allowing them to use the full $9.5 million midlevel exception. Losing Allen on an offer sheet does not gain them cap space and the Cavaliers are still technically over the cap when you factor in both exceptions (midlevel and biannual).
Team needs
A franchise player in the draft
Resolution to the future of Kevin Love
Continued development with the recent draft picks
Depth at point guard and center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: first-round pick
Exceptions: $9.5 million midlevel, $3.7 million biannual and $1.8 million trade
The recent first-round picks: Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Allen and Windler
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• By Aug. 1, the Cavaliers will tender Allen a one-year $4.7 million qualifying offer. Allen will then become a restricted free agent, and Cleveland has the right to match if they receive an offer sheet from another team.
• There are no offseason guarantee dates for the contracts of Damyean Dotson, Lamar Peters, Mfiondu Kabengele and Dean Wade. Cleveland can waive any of the players and not incur a financial cost.
• Expect Isaiah Hartenstein to decline his $1.8 million player option by July 26. There is no risk involved considering the minimum contract for Hartenstein as a free agent is $1.7 million. Acquired at the deadline from Denver, Hartenstein averaged 8.3 points and 6.0 rebounds in 16 games with the Cavaliers.
Restrictions
• Hartenstein cannot be traded until his $1.8 million option is exercised.
• The contracts of Dotson, Wade, Peters and Kabengele have no outgoing trade value because their contracts are not guaranteed.
Extension eligible
• The Cavaliers have three players -- Love, Nance and Taurean -- who are eligible for an extension. It is unlikely that any of the players receive a new contract.
The draft
Besides the third pick in the July draft, Cleveland has all its own first-round picks in the future.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Cleveland selecting in July:
No. 3 (own): Evan Mobley, C, USC
The Cavaliers have made two trades in the past two drafts. Last November, as part of removing the protection on the 2022 first-round pick owed from Milwaukee, Cleveland received a 2025 second from the Bucks. In 2019, the Cavaliers acquired Kevin Porter Jr. (the last pick in the first round) from Detroit for $5 million and four second-round picks.