Although the disappointment of losing in the conference finals is likely to linger into the offseason, these playoffs gave us a glimpse of what the future holds for the Atlanta Hawks.
This is no longer a team stuck in the bottom of the standings but a roster with a strong foundation that should compete for a top-four seed in the foreseeable future.
The first order of business in the offseason is lifting the interim tag off of head coach Nate McMillan.
There is also the restricted free agency of John Collins to be handled, plus rookie extensions for Trae Young and Kevin Huerter.
Nate McMillan
Despite making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, the Hawks were in no rush to lift McMillan's interim tag at the end of the regular season.
"When Nate decided to take the interim tag three months ago, whatever it was, we told him that let's just get through the end of the year and see where things stand," GM Travis Schlenk told the media before the playoffs started. "Obviously he's done a great job, I've said that publicly. I've told Nate that, but our stance is still the same. We're going to let the season play out and then once the season plays out, we'll sit down and have conversations."
Atlanta's season is over, and now it is time to reward McMillan for the job he has done and give him the role on a full-time basis. The Hawks went 27-11 in the regular season under McMillan after Lloyd Pierce was let go, the third-best record in the NBA in that span.
"I think one of the big things that he's done is just be unbelievably consistent with his messaging with the guys," Schlenk said. "We still play a lot of young guys, a lot of guys new to our team this year, and since day one he's been unbelievably consistent about what we're going to do every single day. And the guys took to that. I think one of the other things that he does, he started changing some of the plays to fit some of our players' skill sets a little bit better. Just little tweaks here and there, and it really got guys confident, got guys believing in what we were trying to do."
To be fair to Pierce, the Hawks roster he coached was a shell of itself and not at full strength because of injuries to Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, Rajon Rondo and Danilo Gallinari.
McMillan has support from the most important player in the Hawks' locker room, Young.
"I couldn't see a scenario where he's not back with us," Young told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski on The Woj Pod. "The way we're winning right now. If we go into the playoffs and do really well, it's hard to see him not back next year. At the end of the day, it's not up to me, but as a player, I don't see why he wouldn't be back."
John Collins
Collins is the classic example of a player betting on himself. Instead of signing what he perceived as a team-friendly rookie extension in December, Collins played out the season and is now set to become a restricted free agent.
Will his decision pay off?
Going strictly by the numbers, Collins should not have bypassed the extension and the Hawks should be hesitant about committing significant long-term money to him in free agency. His points per game and shooting percentage both dropped from a season ago, and there are games when Collins is often the fourth option.
However, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Collins made significant sacrifices to help the Hawks become a winning franchise after Atlanta upgraded its roster last offseason, and he adapted to a reduced role alongside Bogdanovic, Gallinari and more recent addition Lou Williams.
For example, in the Game 4 win against the New York Knicks and the Game 1 win against the Philadelphia 76ers, Collins topped the 20-point mark despite taking fewer than 10 shots in each game.
Schlenk has made it known that Collins is a priority in the offseason. "John's a big part of our team," Schlenk said. "We all know how effective he can be offensively with his ability to finish in the lane and to shoot the ball from the perimeter."
As in all cases in free agency, especially with the restricted market, supply and demand will dictate the cost when it comes to Collins, whose starting salary according to ProFitX should come in at $22.8 million. That would translate to a four-year, $102 million contract, or potentially a five-year, $132 million deal if he were to remain in Atlanta.
Unless Atlanta comes with an aggressive offer on the first day of free agency, Collins will certainly test the market to see whether a team such as Charlotte, Dallas, New York, Oklahoma City or San Antonio will make an offer sheet.
However, the Hawks aren't likely going to let Collins walk away for nothing. Because of the team's cap situation, Atlanta has only $15 million in cap space to find a replacement, and although the Hawks have Gallinari and De'Andre Hunter on the bench, neither is a significant upgrade over Collins. If Collins tests the market and agrees to an offer sheet with another team, the Hawks could try to work out a sign-and-trade deal with that team to bring back something of value in return, or could just match the offer sheet, keeping Collins in Atlanta. Doing the latter, however, could get very costly when looming extensions for Young and Huerter kick in.
Re-signing all three players would likely put the Hawks in the luxury tax in 2022-23, assuming Gallinari's contract for that season is guaranteed, but that is the cost of keeping a team that was one win away from the conference finals together.
Trae Young
The Hawks' All-Star point guard is set to join an exclusive club. Like Luka Doncic, the player to whom he'll always be linked because of the draft-day trade that swapped the two of them, Young should be on the receiving end of a five-year rookie max extension this summer.
In fact, according to ProFitX, Young's salary in the first year of the extension reflects that of a player on a $39 million super max contract.
However, unlike Doncic who has earned All-NBA honors in consecutive seasons and is eligible for an extension that starts at 30% of the salary cap, the maximum Young is eligible for at the moment is $168 million. He does have the option of negotiating All-NBA language into the extension he signs this summer, which would give him a pay bump if he makes an All-NBA team next season. Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo and De'Aaron Fox all did so last offseason, though none of them ended up reaching All-NBA status in 2020-21.
Young was the No. 5 pick three years ago, but his journey to max contract status has not been easy.
"Not everyone thinks the way I do," Young told Jackie MacMullan back in February. "I'm learning how to adjust and adapt to different people. But there's one thing I hope my teammates all understand. There's two different people in me: the basketball version and the personal version.
"The basketball version is willing to do whatever it takes to win. Sometimes, that will come along with controversy. I want to bring out the best in everybody and I hope they will bring out the best in me. The teammates who understand that are the ones I'm closest with."
The best version of Young was on display in the first round against New York. In the series win, Young found the right balance between scoring and setting up his teammates. Despite shooting only 33.8% from 3, he averaged 29.2 points while adding 9.8 assists per game. He followed that up by averaging 29.0 and 10.9 in the second-round victory over the 76ers, and averaged 32.7 points in the first three games against the Bucks before getting hurt. Young's growth has not gone unnoticed.
"Like I always used to tell Trae, 'The fourth quarter is when stars earn their money,'" former teammate Vince Carter told MacMullan. "He showed his growth by showing trust in his guys.
"Last year, if we were getting blown out like that, no one was expecting the ball. Trae would take it upon himself to say, 'OK, we're losing, I gotta prove I'm a great player.' And then he would put up a ton of shots."
Offseason cap breakdown
After spending $160 million in free agency last offseason, the Hawks are over the cap for the first time since Schlenk took over as the head of basketball operations. Although Atlanta has only $96 million in committed salary (including its first-round pick), the $12.4 million free-agent hold on Collins pushes it over the threshold.
If Collins walks without Atlanta matching an offer sheet, the Hawks will have only the $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual exception available in free agency. If Collins is signed to a contract in the max salary range (around $28 million), the Hawks will have $12 million to fill out their roster and stay below the tax.
Team needs
Backup point guard
A healthy Dunn, Bogdanovic and Gallinari
Continued development of Reddish, Hunter and Okongwu
Resources to build the roster
The draft: first- and second-round picks
Exceptions: $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual
Cash: $5.8M to send out or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Expect both Brandon Goodwin and Collins to receive a one-year qualifying offer by Aug. 1. Goodwin started five games this season, averaging 32.5 minutes, 11.2 points and 5.0 assists. His best game of the season was a win against Charlotte in which he posted 17 points and 8 assists. He did not play in the postseason because of a non-COVID-19 illness. His one-year qualifying offer is $2.1 million. The Hawks would then have until mid-August to pull the offer, which would make Goodwin an unrestricted free agent. Collins reached starter criteria this season when he started more than 36 games. His qualifying offer is $7.7 million.
• Dunn has until July 28 to make a decision on his $5 million player option for 2021-22. The two-year, $9.7 million contract Dunn signed last November was deemed one of the better value contracts in free agency. Dunn was coming off an All-Defense type season in Chicago before a right knee injury ended his season. It was that same knee that would eventually see the guard miss the first 59 games of this season. Dunn played in only five games upon his return and missed the remainder of the season with a left ankle impingement. Because of his injuries this season, it is all but certain that Dunn will opt in.
Restrictions
• Bogdanovic has a 15% trade bonus in his contract. The bonus is currently valued at $5.4 million.
• Dunn cannot be traded until he exercises his player option.
Extension eligible
• Clint Capela signed a five-year contract in 2018 and had to wait until the third-year anniversary before he was eligible to sign an extension. Now that he has met the criteria, the Hawks can extend their starting center to a three-year, $70.5 million contract. Capela is coming off a career year in which he led the league in defensive rebounding percentage and rebounds per game (14.3). He finished with 36 second-place votes for All-Defense, trailing only Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid among centers. Because he has two years remaining, the Hawks will have until Oct. 18 to extend him.
• The four-year, $56 million extension Luke Kennard signed last December with the LA Clippers should serve as a comp when it comes to Huerter. The 2018 first-round pick is rookie extension eligible and can sign a four-year contract up until Oct. 18. In the playoffs, Huerter averaged 10.5 points and shot 51.4% from the field and 44.2% from 3.
• Bruno Fernando, a 2019 second-round pick, is also eligible to sign an extension during the season.
The draft
For the first time since 2017, when Collins was selected, the Hawks are not drafting in the lottery.
Atlanta also has its own first-round pick in future years and is owed a lottery-protected first-round pick from Oklahoma City in 2022. If the Thunder miss the playoffs next year, Atlanta will receive second-round picks in 2024 and 2025.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Atlanta selecting in July:
No. 20 (own): Jared Butler | Baylor | PG/SG
No. 48 (via MIA): Isaiah Todd | G League Ignite | PF
Although Schlenk did not make a trade in last November's draft, the Atlanta GM has been active since taking over in 2017. In total, the Hawks have made eight draft-related transactions, including acquiring a future first-round pick from Brooklyn in the Taurean Prince trade. That pick was eventually used as part of the trade to acquire Capela.