The Philadelphia 76ers' season unofficially ended in the second half of Game 5 against the Atlanta Hawks.
What was supposed to be a 3-2 lead and a chance to eliminate Atlanta in Game 6 turned into a collapse for the ages. The 76ers bounced back with a win in Game 6 on Friday, but were eliminated in Game 7 at home on Sunday night.
The offseason focus now turns to a supermax extension for Joel Embiid and tweaking a roster that finished the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference but failed to reach the Eastern Conference finals for the 20th consecutive season.
The Joel Embiid supermax
The five-year, $147.7 million rookie max extension that Embiid signed in 2017 is considered one of the most complex and creative contracts in league history. Because Embiid had missed his first two NBA seasons with a foot injury, the 35-page contract included language that essentially gave the 76ers a way to get out of the deal if Embiid suffered a catastrophic injury to his feet or lower back.
Across each of the final four seasons of the extension, ending with the 2022-23 season, the 76ers could have waived Embiid for a financial benefit if he suffered a contractually agreed upon injury that caused him to miss 25 or more regular-season games and play fewer than 1,650 minutes.
If Embiid played a minimum of 1,650 regular-season minutes in three consecutive years during the extension, or three out of four including the 2017-18 season, it would eliminate the possibility of a reduction in the contract. Embiid reached the minutes benchmark last season, guaranteeing the remaining three seasons of the contract.
This offseason, Embiid is once again extension eligible but at a higher price tag and possible financial risk exposure to the 76ers in the future. By earning All-NBA in 2020-21, Embiid met the supermax criteria and is eligible to sign an extension for four years and up to $190 million. The dollar amount is based off 35% of the projected $121.5 million cap in 2023-24 and could increase.
2021-22 | $31.6M (current contract)
2022-23 | $33.6M (current contract)
2023-24 | $42.5M (supermax starts)
2024-25 | $45.9M
2025-26 | $49.3M
2026-27 | $52.7M
Although both sides can negotiate the total value of the contract (for example the salary in 2023-24 could be 33% of the cap and not 35%), the contract has to be for four seasons.
The body of work since Embiid signed his rookie extension in 2017 is that of a supermax player. He is a four-time All-Star, three-time All-NBA selection, three-time All-Defensive team selection and finished second in MVP voting this season.
Although there is a risk involved in every contract that is signed, the risk would be higher for the 76ers because of Embiid's injury history. A supermax extension would put Embiid -- who is playing through a torn meniscus this postseason -- under contract for six more seasons, and set to make nearly $53 million in 2026-27.
Would the 76ers go back to their notes from 2017 and look to add injury language that protects them in the future? His agents at CAA would likely argue that since 2017-18, the longest stretch of games that Embiid missed in one season was the 11-game stint he missed this season because of his left knee. He also missed 10 because of an orbital fracture in 2018 and nine because of a broken left hand in 2020. Neither of those are recurring-type injuries, and Embiid hasn't had any setbacks with his feet or his back.
The seven supermax contracts that have been signed in recent years have not contained any prior injury language. If the 76ers insist on such language and Embiid decides not to sign, there would be risk for both sides. Embiid would have to earn All-NBA honors again to become supermax eligible next offseason. However, if he waits and does become eligible, the 76ers could be on the hook for a five-year extension that would pay Embiid nearly $57 million in the final season.
Daryl Morey
The first year for Morey as head of basketball operations in Philadelphia could be described as both a trimming around the edges and evaluation period of the roster.
There was the Al Horford trade the night of the draft that helped balance their finances but also gave the 76ers a wing defender and shooter in Danny Green. Sending Josh Richardson to Dallas for Seth Curry added more shooting, and the George Hill acquisition at the deadline gave them a veteran guard presence off the bench.
The three moves were a reflection of the timeline Morey envisioned when he was hired in November.
"One thing I think organizations make mistakes is they try to make sure the roster is perfect on Game 1 [of the season]," Morey said. "The players who are going to thrive under [head coach] Doc [Rivers] and how Doc utilizes them is going to teach [76ers GM] Elton [Brand] and I a lot about how best to fit the players around them.
"If there's a great opportunity, obviously we're going to do it early. But the main thing is, you want to do great moves when they are available. But often the best move is not a move that is done right away.
"We want to increase our understanding before we start to make those moves."
Now, heading into the offseason, Morey has to decide how he wants to evaluate the roster as it stands now: Does he judge it by the three-game losing streak to Atlanta that ended the 76ers' season, or by the first-place finish in the Eastern Conference during the regular season? The answer lies somewhere in the middle, and Philadelphia has to be cautious in making wholesale changes.
After the disappointing playoff finish, the easy approach would be to say that the roster needs an overhaul and that Tobias Harris or even Ben Simmons need to go. But do you realistically think the trade market has two All-Star-level players available in the prime of their career and under contract through at least the 2023-24 season?
If the next disgruntled superstar becomes available, that completely changes the dynamics, but more likely Philadelphia's offseason will consist of the same singles and doubles transactions that the 76ers made last offseason.
The first priority for the 76ers will be determining what to do about Hill's non-guaranteed contract and the free agency of Green and Furkan Korkmaz.
Green was a starter before injuring his calf in the Atlanta series. Because he signed a two-year contract with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2019, the 76ers acquired Early Bird rights on him when they traded for him.
The 76ers can exceed the cap to re-sign him, but according to ProFitX, the veteran has underperformed on the two-year, $30 million contract that he signed with the Lakers by $10 million over the past two seasons. His salary projection for next season is $8.3 million, slightly below the midlevel exception. The options with Green range from signing him to a free agent, using his contract in a sign-and-trade or cutting ties with him completely.
Korkmaz, the No. 26 pick in the 2016 draft, went from having his third-year option in his rookie contract declined to becoming a valuable reserve off the bench. He outperformed his $1.8 million contract this past season by $12 million according to ProFitX. He has full Bird rights and, like Green, the 76ers' options range from signing him, exploring a sign-and-trade or going a different direction.
The $10 million Hill contract becomes fully guaranteed if he is not waived by Aug. 3.
The 76ers would still be over the cap if they let Green and Korkmaz walk and waive Hill, which means they'd have only the $9.5 midlevel exception and their own first-round pick to replace them. On the other side, keeping the entire roster intact will put the 76ers into the luxury tax for a second consecutive season.
Offseason cap breakdown
The 76ers' roster is top heavy in salary. Embiid, Harris and Simmons earn $100M of the committed $120M in salary.
Because Philadelphia is over the salary cap, the options in free agency range from signing their own free agents, using the midlevel and minimum exceptions or a combination of both.
Expect the 76ers to be right at the $136 million luxury tax threshold.
Team needs
Shooting off the bench
Depth at both forward spots and center
Resources to build the roster
The 2021 draft: first- and second-round picks
Future draft picks assets: 2022, 2023 firsts and a plethora of second-rounders
Own free agents: Green and Korkmaz
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual (or $5.9M taxpayer midlevel)
$8.29M trade exception
Cash: $5.8M to send out or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The 76ers have an Aug. 3 deadline for determining the future of George Hill. Acquired at the trade deadline from Oklahoma City, Hill has $1.3 million guaranteed of his $10 million contract with the balance fully protected after Aug. 3. After playing 19.1 minutes per game in the first round, Hill saw his minutes dip to 13.9 in the loss to the Hawks, averaging just 2.2 points per game. Waiving Hill creates financial flexibility as it relates to the luxury tax but would see Philadelphia lose a valuable veteran and a valuable expiring contract that could be used in a trade.
• The second year of the two-year deal Anthony Tolliver signed this spring is non-guaranteed and does not become fully guaranteed until 30 days after the moratorium is lifted. Tolliver played only one game in the postseason. His $2.7 million salary could become valuable in a trade, but the 76ers would have to guarantee it first.
Restrictions
• Simmons has a 15% trade bonus that is voided because it exceeds the maximum salary allowed.
• Harris has a trade kicker of the lesser of 5% remaining in his contract or $5 million.
• The outgoing salary in a trade for Hill is $1.27 million. For Philadelphia to use the full $10 million, the contract has to be guaranteed.
• Tolliver's salary counts as zero in outgoing salary in a trade until it is guaranteed.
• The 76ers can trade their own first-round pick in 2021, 2022 and 2023. However, they are not allowed to trade back-to-back future firsts.
Extension eligible
• Because he is entering the third year of the four-year contract that he signed in Dallas, Curry is now eligible to sign an extension up until Oct. 18. The 76ers can add an additional three seasons and up to $35.6 million in new money. In 57 regular-season games this season, Curry shot 45% from 3-point range and averaged 12.5 points. Those numbers increased to 18.6 points and 47.8% in the playoffs this season. He outplayed his $7.8 million contract this year by $4.2 million according to ProFitX.
• Shake Milton signed a four-year contract in July 2019 and is extension eligible. Although the guard is under contract for two additional seasons, he will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022 if his player option is declined or in 2023. Philadelphia can add up to $55 million in new money and an additional four seasons if the team option in the last year is declined.
• Hill is also eligible to sign an extension if he is not waived before his contract becomes guaranteed on Aug. 3.
The draft
The 76ers have built their roster with homegrown talent from the draft. Out of the 11 players under contract in 2021-22, seven were originally selected by the 76ers, a number that will likely increase as Philadelphia has two picks in this year's draft.
The 76ers have found value in adding depth the past two years, adding Matisse Thybulle in a draft-day trade in 2019 and selecting Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Thybulle earned second-team All-Defense honors this season, and Maxey developed into a key contributor off the bench.
The 76ers have control of their first-round pick through 2024 but owe the Thunder a first-round pick starting in 2025. The pick has top-six protection in 2025, and is top-four protected in both 2026 and 2027. If it is not conveyed in any of the three years, Philadelphia will send the Thunder a 2027 second and $2 million.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Philadelphia selecting in July:
No. 28 (own): Max Abmas | PG | Oral Roberts
No. 50 (own): Isaiah Todd | PF | G League Ignite
In his first draft as the head of basketball operations in Philadelphia, Morey made two transactions last year, agreeing to the Horford trade and acquiring Curry from Dallas.