It was only a year ago that the Milwaukee Bucks were at a crossroads with their roster.
They had just lost to Miami in the second round of the playoffs; their franchise player Giannis Antetokounmpo was faced with a decision to sign a supermax extension or test free agency in 2021; and the reality was that a roster with the best record in the regular season was not good enough for the playoffs.
Now the Bucks are NBA champions.
With the season over, the focus now shifts to the future of head coach Mike Budenholzer and remaking a bench that could lose P.J. Tucker, Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes to free agency.
The future of Mike Budenholzer
Two months ago, with rumors swirling about Budenholzer's job status, GM Jon Horst praised the job his head coach had done.
"I think it's awesome," Horst said. "It's incredible to have a partner in this business that cares about winning as much as he does, that's as willing to adjust and change and try things differently for the ultimate goal. All of us want to win, we want to win at a high level and we're willing to do anything we can to do it. ... Bud's doing a hell of a job." Horst's words proved to be prescient, as Budenholzer made the right adjustments in the playoffs to help the Bucks win their first title since 1971.
Over the past three seasons, Budenholzer has compiled a 162-65 record (.714 win percentage) that ranks as the best in the NBA. After disappointing losses in the conference finals in 2019 and the second round in 2020, the Bucks broke through to win the title this year, despite finishing lower in the East standings (third) than they had in the previous two seasons.
Coaches are judged by putting their players in the best position on the court to succeed, and although we can pick apart Budenholzer's in-game adjustments, winning the Eastern Conference finals while being without Antetokounmpo in Games 5 and 6, then coming back from being down 2-0 in the NBA Finals, proved that Budenholzer passed the test.
The Bucks now have a decision to make on the future of Budenhozler, who is set to enter the last year of his contract.
Earlier this year, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban explained his philosophy on stability at head coach (not long before he ... went and made a change for his own team).
"Let me tell you how I look at coaching," Cuban said. "You don't make a change to make a change. Unless you have someone that you know is much, much, much better, the grass is rarely greener on the other side."
That statement should resonate in Milwaukee. It is now up to Horst and the Bucks ownership group to reward Budenholzer.
State of the team
The Bucks did everything right last offseason when it came to their roster.
Instead of being content with their regular-season success and chalking up the loss to Miami as a bubble fluke, the Bucks took an aggressive approach to improving their roster.
With the uncertain future of Antetokounmpo hovering over the organization, Milwaukee pushed its draft assets (along with two key players in George Hill and Eric Bledsoe) to the middle of the table and made a swing for the fence type of trade, acquiring Jrue Holiday, one of the best players available last fall.
"Getting the opportunity to acquire Jrue Holiday was a big opportunity for the organization, and you don't do something like that unless you try to follow it through and commit and keep the player," Horst told the media back in April. Holiday eventually signed a four-year, $139 million extension with the Bucks. The Bucks re-signed key reserve Pat Connaughton, then reshaped their bench with the signings of DJ Augustin, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes and Torrey Craig (who was later traded to the Phoenix Suns, coincidentally the Bucks' Finals opponent). The offseason was capped off when eight days before the season, Antetokounmpo signed a five-year $228 million extension.
"Giannis committed to our organization for years to come, and he did that -- we did that with him because that's what we want to do -- we want to be great," Horst said. "We don't want to be good. We want to be the best in the NBA. We want to do it year in and year out and the way that you do that is you have a core group of players that you believe in and that you invest in and that believe in you and that want to be here." The foundation in Milwaukee is clearly solid and seven months after what was described as a perfect offseason, the Bucks now enter the offseason as NBA Champions.
However, before even beginning to address their options this offseason, the Bucks need to look at their financial reality. With the extensions of Antetokounmpo and Holiday set to begin and three years left on Khris Middleton's contract, the Bucks have a financial commitment of $481 million to the three players.
That's more total money committed to just three players than 14 other teams have committed to their entire rosters moving forward. As for the Bucks' entire roster, including the player options of Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis, Milwaukee has $146 million in salary on the books, putting the team $10 million above the luxury tax threshold before free agency begins. Even if Forbes and Portis decline their options and become free agents, the Bucks will still be over the tax apron, meaning they'll only have the $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel exception and veteran minimum exceptions to fill out their roster.
Though the Bucks have a large portion of their roster already under contract for next season, they still have decisions to make on multiple key contributors this offseason.
Tucker
Tucker is 36 years old and is coming off a season where he sat out 13 games due to injury, the most he's ever missed in a single season in his career. Prior to this season, he hadn't missed a game since 2017. In the 20 games he played with the Bucks, his minutes per game (19.9) and points per game (2.6) were his lowest since his rookie season in 2006-07.
While Tucker has averaged below 8 points per game in each of the past five seasons, he still has the versatility to guard multiple positions and is considered a top defender in this league.
"When you talk about switching defenses, his IQ, his ability to guard multiple positions, I think really guard one through four, maybe even one through five," Horst told the media in April.
Because he is such a coveted defender, Tucker will likely have a choice of suitors at the minimum exception and possibly up to the $5.9 million tax midlevel. Milwaukee is hamstrung financially, so the Bucks might have to overpay to keep Tucker. They did inherit his Bird rights when they acquired him via trade in March, so they can exceed the cap to re-sign him, and wouldn't have to use the taxpayer midlevel exception to do so.
If Tucker leaves via free agency, Milwaukee would only have that midlevel exception or a veteran minimum exception to find his replacement.
Portis and Forbes
Things are more complicated for the Bucks when it comes to Portis and Forbes, both of whom outplayed their contracts this past season. The team doesn't have Bird rights on either player, which means the maximum the Bucks can offer (not including giving one of them the full taxpayer midlevel of $5.9 million) would be a 120% raise over their 2020-21 salary, which would be an underpay based on what the duo did on the court this past season.
After signing a two-year, $7.4 million deal (with a player option on the second year) last November, Portis averaged 11.4 points per game and shot 47.1% from 3-point range, ranking third in the NBA. Forbes was right behind him in fourth place, shooting 45.2% from beyond the arc and averaging 10 points per game.
According to ProFitX, Portis ($3.6 million) and Forbes ($2.3 million) outplayed their contracts by a combined $16.3 million this season. As a result, it is likely that both players will decline their player options after the season and become free agents, which could mark the end of their time in Milwaukee.
Trade options
Because of the deal for Holiday last offseason, the Bucks are limited in putting together trades. Without draft assets at their disposal, for the Bucks to acquire a player in the trade market, they'll likely have to give up someone who has been a key contributor for them over the past few seasons.
Taking Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Holiday out of the mix leaves Milwaukee looking at potentially moving Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo and Connaughton. DiVincenzo is on a rookie contract that is set to expire after the 2021-22 season and Lopez and Connaughton have two seasons remaining.
Besides those three players, Milwaukee also has two trade exceptions available, one for $4.9 million and one for $1.7 million.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Bench depth
Resources to build the roster
The Giannis factor
Own free agent: Tucker
The draft: early second-round pick (via Houston)
Exceptions: $5.9M midlevel and trade ($4.9M and $1.7M)
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Expect Forbes to decline his $2.3 million player option by July 28. Forbes is coming off a season where he averaged a career high 45.2% from three. It was the third consecutive year that the guard averaged double digits in points.
• Portis has an Aug. 1 decision on his $3.8 million player option. Like Forbes, expect Portis to become a free agent this offseason. In 66 regular-season games this season, Portis averaged 11.4 points, 52.3% from the field and 47.1% from three.
• The Bucks have until Aug. 1 to tender Thanasis Antetokounmpo a one-year, $2.1-million qualifying offer. In 57 games this season, Antetokounmpo averaged 9.7 minutes and 2.9 points. Because he was on the roster for two seasons, the Bucks have early Bird rights and sign him to up to the average player salary ($11 million). Milwaukee has until mid-August to pull the offer without his consent, making him an unrestricted free agent.
• Former second-round pick Sam Merrill has an Aug. 8 trigger date on his $1.5 million contract. Merrill has $500,000 guaranteed and would see that number increase to full if he is not waived by Aug. 8. In the two games that he was part of the rotation this season, Merrill averaged 14 points on 46.2% from 3.
• There are no offseason guaranteed dates on the contracts of Mamadi Diakite and Elijah Bryant. Milwaukee can waive them and not incur a financial penalty.
Restrictions
• Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo both have a trade restriction in their contract as a result of signing an extension. The Holiday restriction gets lifted on Aug. 22 and Antetokounmpo on Sept. 22.
• The Bucks are hard-capped until Aug. 2, when the new league year begins.
• Forbes and Portis cannot be traded until their player options are exercised.
• The Bryant and Diakite contracts are non-guaranteed and count as zero in outgoing salary. Merrill has $500K guaranteed that is allowable to be used in a trade.
• The Bucks do not have the biannual exception available even if Portis declines his option.
• Milwaukee is not allowed to trade a first-round pick in any season.
Extension eligible
• Lopez is set to reach the second anniversary of the four-year, $52-million contract that he signed in 2019. Although it is unlikely, the Bucks can tack on another three seasons to his current contract. Lopez would be 35 years old when the extension would begin.
• DiVincenzo, the No. 17 pick in the 2018 draft, is entering the final season of his rookie-scale contract and is eligible to sign an extension this summer. Because the deadline to extend DiVincenzo is not until the last day prior to the start of the regular season, there is no rush to extend the guard when free agency starts, unless he is willing to take a contract below market value (in the $8-10 million range). The loss to Brooklyn showed how valuable he is to Milwaukee, but the Bucks have the entire offseason to observe where he is from a recovery standpoint and can wait until the end of October to make a decision. Before suffering a torn tendon in his left ankle in Game 4 against Miami, DiVincenzo was the Bucks starter at shooting guard. In 66 regular season games, DiVincenzo had a +4.6 net rating when he was on the court, averaging a career high in points (10.4), 3-point percentage (37.9%), rebounds (5.7) and assists (3.0). According to ProFitX, DiVincenzo outplayed his $3 million contract this past season by $8 million.
The draft
Because of two separate trades, the Bucks are not allowed to trade a first-round pick in any season. From the Holiday trade with New Orleans, the Bucks will send a 2025 and 2027 unprotected first to the Pelicans. New Orleans also has the right to swap firsts in 2024 and 2026.
This year, the Bucks swapped out their own first for the Rockets second as part of the Tucker trade. Milwaukee also owes Houston an unprotected first in 2023. The first in 2023 was originally a 2022 first that was sent to Cleveland to acquire Hill. The Cavaliers then sent it to Houston to acquire Jarrett Allen in the trade that saw Brooklyn land Harden.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Milwaukee selecting in July:
No. 31 (via HOU): Day'Ron Sharpe | North Carolina | C | Age: 19.6
Horst has made four draft-related trades in the past two seasons. Last year, as part of the Holiday trade, the Bucks acquired the rights to the last pick in the draft, Merrill. The Bucks also traded two future seconds (a 2021 Indiana and their own in 2026) to Orlando for the rights to Jordan Nwora (No. 45).