Joel Embiid fell apart Monday night in Atlanta after playing one of his worst halves of basketball all year and letting the Atlanta Hawks steal Game 4 to get back into this series. Embiid missed a key layup with 10 seconds left that would have given the Philadelphia 76ers a late-game lead. It was a fitting end to his awful night.
Embiid was a ghastly 0-for-12 in the second half in Game 4. How bad is that? That's the most attempts without a make in a half in the past 25 years of postseason play (the timeframe in which these kinds of stats are even possible). Yuck.
Joel Embiid went 0-12 in the 2nd half. That's the most attempts in a half without a make over the last 25 postseasons. pic.twitter.com/MkJpGe8zK1
— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) June 15, 2021
Philadelphia hosts a huge Game 5 tonight. Either team can win the series, so let's look at the keys to victory for both squads, starting with the top-seeded Sixers.
Keys for Philadelphia
1. Embiid needs to attack the rack
The 76ers are one of the best home teams in the league, and they host two of the three remaining scheduled games in this series. That basic fact, along with the age-old notion that whichever team has the best player in the series generally wins, both favor Philadelphia.
Embiid is the best player in these games, and when he plays like it, Philadelphia is tough to beat. If the second half of Game 4 is a sign of things to come for the banged-up center, then Atlanta can easily take this series. But if that dismal half was just a temporary nightmare, Philadelphia should still win it.
The key here is simple: Embiid needs to be the best player on the floor, and that starts in the paint. One reason he didn't dominate in Game 4 is that he managed only one shot in the restricted area all game long, the blown layup that cost the 76ers a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, he took 12 jumpers. That's way too passive for one of the most dominant interior forces in the league.
Somehow, Embiid took more jump shots than Trae Young in Game 4, while also attempting fewer shots at the rim than the 6-foot-1 point guard. That's absurd, and while his injury might be curtailing his ability to dominate the paint, Philadelphia is much easier to stop when Embiid settles for jumpers and is a nonfactor inside.
2. Ben Simmons needs to show up, too
Simmons and his All-NBA defense have already changed the complexion of this series, but he needs to thrive on both ends of the court if Philly wants to advance. When matched up against Simmons, Young has averaged 30.2 points per 100 matchups. Against all other 76ers defenders, that average has jumped by 10 points (40.1).
That's the good news, but here's the bad: Embiid wasn't the only disappearing act down the stretch in Game 4. Simmons faded badly too; check out these splits:
First half: 8 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists, +15
Second half: 3 points (1 FGA), 1 rebound, 2 assists, -15
He has to be more of a two-way threat in Game 5, slowing down Young on defense, but also creating looks on offense.
Keys for Atlanta
1. Make 3-pointers
In their two wins thus far this series, the Hawks have averaged 48 points off 3-point shots. In their two losses, that number plummets to 25.5.
Young is the key to Atlanta's 3-point attack, but not just as a shooter. Through four games, Philadelphia has done a good jump containing Young's 3-point shooting; he's converting just 31.4% of his attempts. With Simmons and Matisse Thybulle, two All-Defensive selections, attached to him, it's unfair to expect Young to go off in Game 5.
With Philly's attention laser-focused on Young, Atlanta needs to find perimeter production from Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari, who each thrive in catch-and-shoot situations. In their two wins, Atlanta has averaged 11 made catch-and-shoot triples; in their two losses, they've averaged just 4.5 such buckets.
So how do they generate these looks? With Young's passes, which have led to 41 catch-and-shoot looks for Atlanta thus far. The rest of the squad has generated 44. But simply generating looks isn't enough. In the Game 3 loss, the Hawks converted just 1-of-6 catch-and-shoot 3s off of Young's dishes; in the Game 4 win, they made 6-of-15. For Atlanta to take Game 5 in Philly, Young, the creator, must find ways to concoct good looks for his teammates on the outside.
These catch-and-shoot 3s are the canary in the coal mine for the Hawks' offense. If they're getting them, that means the ball is flying around and finding good shooters in good spots. If they're not, it means these birds are in trouble.
2. Take care of the ball
The team that has won the turnover battle in this series is undefeated. Atlanta turned the ball over just four times in Game 4, which was its fewest in any game (regular season or playoffs) since 1999 and a huge key to the victory. How'd the Hawks do it? With careful passing.
Philly's lengthy defense thrives by disrupting passing lanes and deflecting balls, and when the 76ers are able to tip passes, they're able to create live-ball turnovers, which lead to juicy fast-break opportunities.
Coming into Game 4, Philadelphia led all postseason teams by deflecting 16.4 passes per game. But the 76ers managed just six deflections Monday night, and the Hawks completed 98.3% of their passes, the highest rate allowed by the 76ers this postseason. Just like catch-and-shoot 3s are key indicators for the overall performance of Atlanta's offense, these deflected passes are vital signs for Philly's D.
If Atlanta wants to win Game 5, it needs to take care of the ball just like the Hawks did in Game 4, win the turnover battle and keep those deflected passes down.
3. Get stops
At halftime of Game 4, this series was teetering for the Hawks. They trailed by 13 points, having allowed the 76ers to put up 62 points in the first half. But Atlanta played some of its best defense of the postseason in the final 24 minutes, holding Philadelphia to 38 points and changing the narrative of the series in the process. The Hawks forced stops and turnovers down the stretch, which enabled them to come back and even the series. If they play that way in Game 5, they will win.
But it's not that simple. In their two losses in this series, the Hawks' defense has been woeful.
Throughout the series, Atlanta's offense has been stable, scoring 111.6 points per 100 possessions in wins and 109.2 per 100 in losses. But the defense is another story. It has held Philadelphia to 109.8 points per 100 in the wins, but allowed a ridiculous 126.3 points per 100 in the losses. In Games 2 and 3, the 76ers shot 55.4% from the field and 46.8% from 3. The Hawks can't let the 76ers shoot that well again.
Clint Capela is unquestionably the leader of the Hawks D, and it's his matchup against Embiid that could determine everything in Game 5 and beyond. Capela, who finished second in ESPN's Defensive Real Plus-Minus metric this season, outplayed Embiid in Game 4. If he can do it again in Game 5, Atlanta might have a chance to shock the world back home in Game 6, but if Embiid and Simmons can snap back into form, this series is still Philadelphia's to lose.