Joel Embiid's knee issues and the demise of the Los Angeles Lakers have upped the chances that the real NBA Finals begin Saturday in Brooklyn between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets.
The contrast between these juggernauts is irresistible. The big-city Nets bring the blue blood Big Three -- a No. 1 and No. 2 overall pick who conspired to make the Nets their fiefdom and the No. 3 pick who watched from afar before flexing his muscle to join up. All three are international superstars -- commercial giants.
The small-market, Midwestern Bucks bring their Big Three consisting of a little-known prospect from the Greek minor leagues (picked 15th), the NBA's perennial "most underrated player" (picked 17th) and a second-round pick who was once a throw-in to a deal centered around two top-10 picks named Brandon.
Jrue Holiday transformed the Bucks, but he also represents the road not taken for Brooklyn. The Nets had the assets to trade for Holiday. Brooklyn already had two high-usage scoring stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Holiday, a rugged multipositional defender who doesn't crave the ball, was the kind of complementary star who would balance their team.
The Nets demurred and waited for perhaps the most ball-dominant superstar in NBA history in Harden. They chose infinite offense.
This clash also brings the desired amount of mystery. The Nets' Big Three have played zero minutes together against Milwaukee -- Irving missed the first game, Harden the two-game series in Milwaukee in early May. Each team is missing a crucial glue guy: the irrepressible Donte DiVincenzo for the Bucks, and jack-of-all-trades Jeff Green for the Nets. (Green appears likely to return at some point, sources say.)
We don't even know either starting lineup for sure -- unusual for teams of this quality entering a series of this magnitude.
In that first game without Irving, Holiday mostly defended Harden. In the final two, with Harden injured, Holiday took the Irving assignment. Obviously, he can only guard one of them now.
In any series, everything flows outward from individual matchups. If Player X can't guard Player Y without crisis-level help, all the pieces get rearranged.
The first domino will be whom Brooklyn decides to start at center alongside Harden, Irving, Durant, and Joe Harris. My bet would be Blake Griffin, who has started for the past month, but DeAndre Jordan started all three regular-season games against Milwaukee. Jordan mostly defended Giannis Antetokounmpo, sparing Durant that unpleasant work; Durant often defended Brook Lopez. Jordan has not played since May 8.
Jordan did OK against Antetokounmpo. The Bucks scored about 110 points per 100 possessions -- below league average -- with both Antetokounmpo and Jordan on the floor, per NBA.com. Jordan sagged off Antetokounmpo, barricading the basket and daring him to shoot jumpers. It is a familiar strategy.
The two-time MVP knows how to counter it now: do his best Draymond Green impression and become a screen-setter catapulting Milwaukee's best shooters into open space. Antetokounmpo then transforms into a lethal screen-and-dive threat. Khris Middleton can rain midrange fire over retreating defenders.
Giannis set 36 ball screens against Brooklyn on Jan. 18, by far a career high -- and something of a turning point in Milwaukee's deployment of Antetokounmpo. (Antetokounmpo ran just four pick-and-rolls as the ball handler in three games against Brooklyn, per Second Spectrum -- shockingly low, even if the Nets would duck such screens. I wonder if the Bucks might try that a little more to catch Brooklyn off guard.)
But if Brooklyn's guards scurry over picks, that drop-back defense can work in stretches:
That last play is a Holiday-Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll, with Irving defending Holiday. That is one way Milwaukee defanged the Miami Heat: find a weak defender on one of Holiday and Middleton, and have that guy run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo.
Regardless of whom Brooklyn starts, Milwaukee is going to get that kind of matchup a lot; one of Irving and Harden will be defending one of Holiday and Middleton. The Bucks will prey on those matchups.
In that clip, the Nets have Irving execute a late switch onto Antetokounmpo. Miami was unwilling to subject its guards to that mismatch. I suspect the Nets will live with it more often. They don't have the league's best personnel to switch -- Milwaukee is probably better equipped to do it -- but they switch the most. From there, they depend on active hands, engaged rotations and spirited gang rebounding. They dug down on Antetokounmpo's post-ups in the regular season, lunging for steals when he turned his back to spin.
That marks another appealing contrast: Milwaukee rarely skimps on the little things, but the Nets are sometimes guilty of it. After destroying the Boston Celtics in Games 1 and 2 of their first-round series, they adopted a haughty, cavalier attitude. They missed boxouts, lollygagged in transition, miscommunicated on switches. Harden played some classic Harden matador defense in the open floor.
That was fine against an injured and limited Boston team. The Nets showed their defensive chops in Games 1 and 2, and knew they could clinch the series with offense alone. These Bucks, talented and hungry, offer no such margin for error or arrogance.
In particular, the Bucks have emerged as a dangerous offensive rebounding team. The Nets ranked 23rd in defensive rebounding rate and are dead last in the playoffs. These Nets are never going to be a good defensive rebounding team. The difference between below average and very bad might be two or three boards per night, and given how often offensive boards lead to good shots, that can be the difference between a win and a loss.
These are also two of the league's deadliest transition teams. Both will pounce on any lazy first step or reckless gamble.
The Nets will switch much more with Griffin at center, and my hunch is they keep him in that spot to begin the series -- keep their starting five intact after going through so much lineup churn. Nicolas Claxton will get minutes, and I would not be surprised if the Nets dusted off Jordan at points.
They will also play Green at center if and when he returns, and go even smaller with Durant there -- something they did a lot with Green unavailable in Games 4 and 5 against Boston. In those lineups, Durant may have to defend Antetokounmpo -- another reason Green's availability matters. Green can't really guard Antetokounmpo -- few can -- but he can make a pass at it so Durant doesn't have to. Antetokounmpo's strength troubles Durant. The fifth cog in those Durant-at-center groups without Green either gives up shooting (Bruce Brown, an important player here because of his defensive versatility) or defense (Landry Shamet.)
If Griffin starts, he'll probably defend Antetokounmpo. Durant could defend Lopez, though the Nets could also slide Harden there -- allowing Durant to envelop Middleton.
The Nets have both switched with Griffin on Antetokounmpo and had him drop back in the style of Jordan. The problem is that he's not especially good at either tactic. He offers zero rim protection as a drop-back guy, though the Nets are surely hoping the NBA's leader in taking charges can bait Antetokounmpo into offensive fouls. If Brooklyn has to send help toward Griffin inside, that defeats the purpose of any drop-back scheme:
Griffin will struggle to contain Milwaukee's ball handlers on switches. Antetokounmpo looked mostly comfortable going at Griffin one-on-one and flicking close-range hooks over him. His shooting efficiency against Griffin wasn't great, at least according to the NBA's matchup data, but Antetokounmpo didn't look bothered.
The Bucks have also gotten better at all the counters to switch-everything schemes: slipping picks, rejecting them, faking them -- all the little tricks that tip defenses into switching too obviously and too soon. The Nets, for their part, have improved at recognizing those cons and staying home when they should. Part of being a good switching team is knowing when not to switch.
Griffin can space the floor for Brooklyn's guards. If Lopez hangs near the rim, Griffin can screen to spring Joe Harris for open 3s -- just as Bam Adebayo did (or tried to) with Duncan Robinson. The Nets might try to play Lopez off the floor with shooting, knowing Milwaukee has fewer small-ball options without DiVincenzo.
The Nets also represent the ultimate test of Lopez's drop-back pick-and-roll defense. Irving and Durant are two of the greatest pull-up shooters ever; they can actually beat you with off-the-dribble 2s. (They will also go right at Bobby Portis when he replaces Lopez.) Harden's floater is airtight, and he has used it often against Lopez. (Remember: It was Mike Budenholzer's Bucks who pioneered defending Harden from behind his left shoulder -- forcing him to drive for floaters.) One wrinkle to watch: picks around half court for Harden, giving him a long runway before meeting Lopez.
Lopez has ventured outside his comfort zone to challenge those jumpers, exposing himself to blow-bys.
Against smaller Brooklyn lineups, the Bucks might hide Lopez on Green or Brown. Brooklyn can have those guys screen for its stars to target Lopez, and Brown is brilliant skulking inside for floaters. Lopez can try to brutalize those lineups on offense, where he has reengaged smashmouth mode over the past few months.
The Bucks could play more with P.J. Tucker or Antetokounmpo at center. Regardless, the foursome of Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Holiday and Tucker figures to play a lot. Those four can switch just about everything. Holiday might be Milwaukee's best option against all three of Irving, Harden and Durant. Antetokounmpo and Tucker absorbed the Jimmy Butler assignment in the first round.
The first step in having any hope of containing the Nets to non-nuclear efficiency is to have good wing-sized defenders on all three Brooklyn stars as often as possible -- allowing you to switch two-man actions between them without entering into a fatal mismatch. Milwaukee can do that with the starting five it used in Game 4 against Miami -- with Pat Connaughton in DiVincenzo's place. Connaughton takes Harris, Holiday gets Irving, Middleton likely bites the Harden bullet and Antetokounmpo tries Durant -- an assignment he rarely took in regular-season matchups, when the Nets started the bigger trio of Durant, Green and Jordan.
That's a tough ask for Middleton and Antetokounmpo. The Bucks might try Connaughton on Harden some, if only to let him absorb the inevitable fouls instead of Middleton. (DiVincenzo was a utility defender in this matchup, spending time on Irving, Harden and Harris.) They could then shift Middleton onto Durant, and Middleton has usually been their primary defender on Durant. But where does Antetokounmpo go then? Harris?
The Bucks can mitigate this by playing smaller or bigger. The Connaughton-Holiday-Middleton-Tucker-Antetokounmpo fivesome should get a decent chunk of time, freeing the Bucks to operate at their switchiest:
The Bucks could also get radical and start Tucker in DiVincenzo's place. That doesn't create the best slate of matchups -- it's a big lineup against a faster one -- but they could compensate by switching more.
Either way, Milwaukee figures to switch a lot with everyone but Lopez.
That becomes less tenable when Bryn Forbes enters. Brooklyn will redirect its entire offense to hunt him. If Forbes is on Harris, expect a barrage of Harden-Harris pick-and-rolls -- the weapon Brooklyn used to eviscerate D.J. Augustin:
The Bucks may try to limit the time both Forbes and Harden are on the floor, but Durant and Irving usually play when Harden rests. And Harden-only lineups are dangerous. The safest hiding place there (with Green injured) is probably Tyler Johnson, but Johnson can do damage if Harden gives him a giant head start.
The Nets can go small along with Milwaukee. The Irving-Harden-Harris-Durant-Green lineup is plus-33 in 81 minutes. The same lineup with Brown in Green's place is Brooklyn's second-most-used group in the playoffs.
There is no real scheme to contain Irving, Harden and Durant with shooting around them. All you can do is gather great individual defenders, avoid mistakes and hope for the best.
Milwaukee has a lot of great defenders. Brooklyn's individual talent is just overwhelming. Harden can create a shot anytime, against anyone. Durant has had no issues shooting over Middleton. Irving is a phantom with the ball. The idea of switching Tucker onto him sounds good in theory. In reality, this happens a lot:
That is the whole point of the Nets: If switchy playoff defenses force us into the mud of isolation basketball, well, we're the best in that mud.
The Nets have flashed a level of cooperation that is a luxury against most teams but might be a requirement -- at least in doses -- against Milwaukee: Harden and Irving screening for each other on one side as Griffin handles, with Durant setting a flare screen for Harris on the opposite side. Pindowns for Durant are always good. Irving is a dangerous cutter when he wants to be, setting random screens and darting into voids.
If the Nets are diligent, that kind of five-man, two-sided action will dot possessions beyond Steve Nash's out-of-timeout sets.
The Nets have to be diligent. These teams are well-matched and well-coached. Milwaukee has its own great one-on-one scorers capable of punishing Harden, Irving, Griffin and Shamet.
The health of Brooklyn's stars is a wild card, though Harden looked like himself in picking apart the Celtics. With Brooklyn holding home court, I'll go Nets in 7.
Whatever the outcome, this could be a classic.