How much rest can the Philadelphia 76ers afford to give Joel Embiid?
The Sixers announced Wednesday that Embiid has been diagnosed with a "small" tear of the lateral meniscus in his right knee after he took an awkward fall during Monday's Game 4 against the Washington Wizards. Embiid didn't play in Wednesday's closeout Game 5 of the series and is listed as day-to-day going forward.
As Philadelphia attempts to treat the injury with rest and rehabilitation rather than with arthroscopic surgery that would sideline Embiid, he'll benefit from as much rest as possible. Can the remaining 76ers help him by continuing to win games with Embiid watching from the bench?
How the Sixers fare without Embiid
The good news is that Philadelphia has been here before. Embiid missed 21 games during the regular season, including a three-week stretch in March while he dealt with a bone bruise in his left knee. The 76ers went 10-11 (.477) in those games, as compared to 39-12 (.765) when he played.
After adjusting for opponent, Philadelphia saw major declines at both ends of the court in the 21 games Embiid missed, dropping below NBA average in offensive rating and going from elite to merely solid defensively.
The Sixers tended to miss Embiid slightly more at the offensive end, where their adjusted rating dropped by 5.4 points per 100 possessions in the games he missed. That's actually less dramatic than we saw in terms of all lineups with and without Embiid. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Philadelphia's offensive rating was 11.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Embiid on the bench this season.
In part, that's probably because Embiid's time on the bench when he plays often overlaps with other starters resting, leaving the 76ers short on overall offensive firepower. With Embiid out entirely, Philadelphia head coach Doc Rivers can rely more heavily on his other shot creators, most notably Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons.
Harris averaged 21.6 PPG in the 20 games he played that Embiid missed, as compared to 18.5 PPG with Embiid active, and rounded up to 50-40-90 shooting in that span thanks to 39.7% accuracy beyond the arc. Simmons also boosted his scoring from 13.8 PPG to 15.5 PPG in games without Embiid, albeit at a greater cost to his own efficiency. Simmons shot an even 50% in games Embiid missed but 59% when the two All-Stars played together.
Both Harris and Simmons were outstanding in Game 5 after subpar performances in Philadelphia's lone loss to the Wizards. Harris scored 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting and handed out six assists, while Simmons recorded a triple-double with 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. Add in a more-surprising 30 points from Seth Curry and the 76ers had more than enough to close out Washington. The Atlanta Hawks will present a stiffer challenge.
Can Philly buy Embiid time against the Hawks?
Atlanta's potent offense figures to test Philadelphia. The Hawks had a better offensive rating than the Sixers over the course of the regular season, an advantage that would be exacerbated if Embiid misses time in the second round.
Clint Capela, the NBA's leading offensive rebounder, looks like a particularly tough matchup for the smaller lineup that Rivers started in Game 5 against Washington, with wing Matisse Thybulle in place of Embiid and Simmons as the biggest Philadelphia player.
Rivers has preferred not to start Dwight Howard alongside Simmons, going instead with since-traded Tony Bradley or stretch-4 Mike Scott as centers in Embiid's absence. If Howard is the 76ers' lone healthy traditional center, Rivers might have little choice but to start him against Capela, his former backup with the Houston Rockets. Avoiding foul trouble will also be key for Howard, whose rate of 6.0 fouls per 36 minutes was the highest among qualifying players during the regular season.
For Philadelphia, a first-round series win against the Miami Heat in 2018 might be the template for this series. Embiid missed the first two games of that series due to an orbital fracture, but the Sixers still managed to split those games at home and won the next three after Embiid was cleared to play. Game 3 appears a reasonable target for Embiid with Game 1 scheduled for Sunday in Philadelphia, which likely will mean an extended break between Games 2 and 3.
How quickly Embiid can return will depend on the location of his meniscus tear, as injury analyst Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes broke down in 2014 when Patrick Beverley returned a little more than two weeks from suffering one ahead of the playoffs. Stotts also cited Andrew Bynum for the Los Angeles Lakers during their 2010 championship run as another example of playing through a meniscus tear. Bynum did not miss any time with the injury, though the 76ers will want to be careful to avoid the long-term knee issues that affected Bynum later in his career.
Certainly, Philadelphia will need Embiid back for a possible Eastern Conference finals matchup against the winner of the other semifinal series in the East between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. Between now and then, the more wins the Sixers can get without Embiid, the better his chances of getting the rest needed to return at something close to full strength.