How much will Donte DiVincenzo's injury hurt the Milwaukee Bucks' chances of a deep playoff run?
The loss of DiVincenzo to a torn ligament in his left ankle, announced by the team Friday, might not seem like a big deal on the surface. Although DiVincenzo started all 66 games he played during the regular season, he was sixth on the Bucks in scoring and they didn't miss him in the second half of Thursday's blowout win to take a 3-0 lead over the Miami Heat.
However, the absence of DiVincenzo as a two-way contributor on the wing could loom large as Milwaukee prepares for a playoff gauntlet that could include matchups against the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers, the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference, in the next two rounds. Let's take a look at how the Bucks will replace DiVincenzo and where he might prove irreplaceable.
Can Forbes hold up defensively?
During Thursday's Game 3, backup guard Bryn Forbes stepped into the lineup in place of DiVincenzo to begin the second half. Forbes' knockdown outside shooting has been a key part of Milwaukee building a 3-0 lead in this series. He had 22 points in 20 minutes during Game 2, making six 3-pointers, and is 9-of-19 (47%) overall from beyond the arc -- helping soften the wall Miami hoped to use defensively to protect the basket.
Against the Heat, the Bucks have been able to stash Forbes against non-threatening scorers who don't have the ability to take advantage of his small stature (6-foot-2). According to Second Spectrum tracking, Forbes has most frequently matched up with Miami forwards Trevor Ariza (41 possessions) and Andre Iguodala (26).
Projecting ahead to a possible second-round matchup against the Nets, Forbes won't find as many comfortable places to hide. He did play a key role in back-to-back wins over Brooklyn at home in May, scoring 26 points in 45 minutes in those two games, which saw him shoot 7-of-12 from 3-point range.
In those games, Milwaukee benefited from the Nets playing without star guard James Harden, allowing Forbes to match up primarily with the similarly sized Landry Shamet (53 matchups per Second Spectrum). In the first meeting between the two teams in Brooklyn, with all three Nets stars active, Forbes played just 10:37 and the Bucks were outscored by 11 points in that span.
Above and beyond more limited minutes for role players like Shamet and Bruce Brown Jr. in a playoff setting, Brooklyn will likely be more intentional about seeking out Forbes defensively and trying to get him matched against a star player. If the Nets can play Forbes off the court, it not only hurts Milwaukee's outside shooting but also exposes a lack of perimeter depth without DiVincenzo.
Limited alternatives for Bucks
Through the first three games of the playoffs, Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer has gone with a nine-player rotation, but just five of those players have primarily seen action on the perimeter: DiVincenzo and fellow starters Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton plus Forbes and Pat Connaughton off the bench.
With DiVincenzo unavailable, Connaughton is now the Bucks' most complete option at shooting guard. At 6-foot-5, he's a more capable individual defender than Forbes and shot a career-high 37% from 3-point range this season. Even if he doesn't start games, I wouldn't be surprised if Connaughton ended up playing more minutes than Forbes, particularly down the stretch.
Still, opponents will probably test Connaughton's improvement as a 3-point shooter and try to make him beat them rather than giving Milwaukee's stars the opportunity to operate one-on-one. Connaughton is just a 35% career 3-point shooter and faltered in last year's playoff series loss to the Heat, scoring nine points on 4-of-14 shooting in 65 minutes of action.
If Connaughton and Forbes both see their weaknesses exposed deeper in the playoffs, Budenholzer quickly starts to run out of options. The Bucks offloaded veteran perimeter players D.J. Augustin and Torrey Craig in separate trades before the deadline. Trading Augustin has left Milwaukee playing without a traditional point guard when Holiday rests, with Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo serving as primary initiators. Those lineups have been ineffective in the playoffs, with the Bucks getting outscored by 13 points in 17 minutes with Middleton on the court and Holiday off according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Whereas Augustin's size would have presented its own challenges in the playoffs, Craig's game seems better suited for the postseason. He's been part of the Phoenix Suns' rotation in their opening-round matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers after starting 14 playoff games for the Denver Nuggets the past two years. Alas, Craig never seemed comfortable in Milwaukee's system and barely got a chance to play after signing on as a free agent last offseason.
Given the limited options, the Bucks may decide their best one is going big and playing P.J. Tucker alongside Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the frontcourt while pushing Middleton to shooting guard. Such lineups are limited in terms of speed, though Tucker plays a similar role offensively to Milwaukee's shooting guards and is capable of defending on the perimeter. Per NBA Advanced Stats, that frontcourt has played 16 minutes together thus far against the Heat. I'd expect even more in a potential matchup with Brooklyn.
On the plus side, losing DiVincenzo may help convince Budenholzer to rely more heavily on his stars in competitive games. We saw that during Milwaukee's 109-107 overtime win in Game 1 vs. Miami. Antetokounmpo and Middleton both logged 40 minutes in regulation and Holiday 37, an increase from the first three games of last year's loss to the Heat when Antetokounmpo and Middleton topped out at 36 minutes apiece.
Nonetheless, the Bucks have to find a fifth player to go along with their three stars and Lopez. DiVincenzo's 38% 3-point shooting and solid defense made him the obvious choice in that spot. Now Milwaukee has a question mark heading into playoff series that would be a difficult test even at full strength.