On Jan. 18 against the Brooklyn Nets, Giannis Antetokounmpo set 36 ball screens. His previous high in any game from the past two seasons had been 21.
The Milwaukee Bucks lost, 125-123, but their offense was spectacular. It seemed like a potential turning point in their deployment of Antetokounmpo. After dribbling into walls of defenders in back-to-back postseason defeats -- to the Toronto Raptors in 2019, and then in the bubble last season to the Miami Heat -- was Antetokounmpo finally ready to be a little more Anthony Davis, and a little less LeBron James?
That was part of the point in trading a treasure trove for Jrue Holiday, and nearly swinging a sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic (who landed with the Atlanta Hawks): surround Antetokounmpo with maximum shooting, sure, but also with as many ball handlers as possible capable of running pick-and-roll with him -- turning Antetokounmpo for stretches into the league's deadliest screen-and-dive threat. With two or even three dangerous ball handlers around Antetokounmpo, the Bucks would be able to drag a weak perimeter defender into a star-laden pick-and-roll against almost every opposing lineup.
It didn't have to be a sea change for the two-time MVP. Perhaps just shifting 10% toward that role on offense would provide Milwaukee the schematic diversity to survive three or four playoff series.
Those 36 ball screens still mark a career single-game high for Antetokounmpo, but that small shift in role is happening. (Antetokounmpo's on-ball and off-ball picks are up this season, per Second Spectrum.) It is one of the main reasons the Bucks enter tonight's pivotal Game 3 in Miami up 2-0 over the foe who dispatched them last season.
The Bucks could have ducked this matchup by tanking their next-to-last regular-season game against Miami. They had internal discussions about potentially doing so, sources said. They unanimously opted against it. They wanted to enter the postseason in rhythm. They would not evince any fear of any opponent. Some within the team even evoked their seven-game first-round loss to the Boston Celtics in 2018 -- and how they avenged it the next season by upending Boston 4-1 in the second round, sources said.
The Bucks have two dangerous ball handlers alongside Antetokounmpo in their starting and closing lineups: Holiday and Khris Middleton. Both can shoot off the dribble if defenders duck screens, though some opponents test Holiday by skittering under now and then. The Eric Bledsoe-Antetokounmpo two-man game never became a consistent weapon because defenders invited Bledsoe to shoot -- allowing everyone else to stay home. Antetokounmpo clearly trusts Holiday, and has ceded some control of the offense to him.
Milwaukee's starting five also includes a bruising center in Brook Lopez who has migrated back to the interior as the season has progressed. Slot a wing or guard onto Lopez, and he goes into smash mode. The Heat have toggled Trevor Ariza onto Lopez at points so that Bam Adebayo can guard Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks have immediately punished that matchup by finding Lopez inside. Miami has not dared put one of their guards on Lopez, which would be the only way to have the three best defenders in their starting five -- Jimmy Butler, Adebayo, and Ariza -- defend the Middleton/Antetokounmpo/Holiday trio. (I bet we see Miami break out some zone defense in Game 3.)
The Bucks also sneakily embraced offensive rebounding this season -- in part by positioning one player in the dunker spot -- and they are so far obliterating a Heat team that ranked slightly below-average on the defensive glass. (Lopez snared a crucial offensive board in overtime of Game 1.)
Put it all together, and Miami is often left with one of its four weaker perimeter defenders -- Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro -- on one of the Holiday/Middleton duo, and boy are the Bucks feasting on that.
It's simple: Have that player take a ball screen from Antetokounmpo. That forces Miami into a painful choice: send help, or switch and gift Antetokounmpo an untenable mismatch.
When the Bucks catch Miami switching, Antetokounmpo slips to the rim -- jetting underneath the switch, and robbing Miami of any time to scramble its way out of it:
The Bucks didn't do quite enough of this in Game 1. They let too many possessions pass without even looking at whatever mismatch Holiday or Middleton had. They often drifted back into what is comfortable -- including Antetokounmpo going one-on-one against defenders who give no quarter, and can force him into tough fading jumpers:
In high-leverage moments, the Bucks can't settle for a shot like that when Dragic is on Middleton 15 feet away.
It doesn't even have to be this complicated. One of the bonuses of Middleton defending Robinson is that Robinson is often stuck on Middleton after Milwaukee stops. Middleton has dragged Robinson to the block, drawn help, and found teammates for open shots. When the Heat hid Robinson on P.J. Tucker in Game 2, Milwaukee ran cross screens between Middleton and Tucker to get the same Robinson/Middleton matchup. Holiday plays bully ball in the post, or on zig-zaggy, shoulder-checking drives.
Antetokounmpo still gets to play lead ball handler. He has looked comfortable attacking Ariza in transition, and lofting hooks and floaters over him. For the season, Milwaukee has averaged 1.18 points per possession anytime Antetokounmpo runs a pick-and-roll, and either shoots or passes to a teammate who fires -- No. 1 among all players, per Second Spectrum. He'll get plenty of chances, and the Heat have not been consistent enough getting under picks for Antetokounmpo. (Credit the Bucks for disguising those actions, and springing them in the chaos of semi-transition.)
Milwaukee's Game 2 evisceration of Miami might have been its most complete blending of the style it played over coach Mike Budenholzer's first two seasons, and the tweaks the Bucks explored this season. It happened on defense, too.
Milwaukee still has Lopez hanging back near the rim, even if his man -- Adebayo -- is screening at the arc for Miami's best shooters. The Bucks trust Middleton to chase Robinson over those picks. They know Robinson will wriggle free here and there. They also know he won't hit every shot, and that there is a constant, churning value to having Lopez patrolling the basket.
But the Bucks are also switching when appropriate, something they did not do enough last season as Miami's shooters inflicted death by a thousand cuts and screens. Any action between two Miami perimeter players and two like-sized Milwaukee defenders should be an automatic switch. If you have Holiday on Dragic -- a juicy matchup the Bucks have designed their rotation to get -- and Antetokounmpo on Butler, refusing to switch the Dragic-Butler two-man game would amount to negligence.
Antetokounmpo on Butler also marks a change from last season, when the Bucks refused to try it -- even as Butler ate Middleton and everyone else alive. Turns out, Antetokounmpo is more than up to it, using his length and speed to disrupt Butler's rhythm.
Milwaukee's key new additions -- Tucker, Bryn Forbes, and Bobby Portis -- add shooting, and make more sense in the context of a team with both Holiday and Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee uses Forbes as the first sub -- in Holiday's place -- guaranteeing he will be buttressed by four good defenders. We have not seen much of Tucker at center, but the trio of Antetokounmpo, Tucker, and Portis is working. It has good size. Tucker and Antetokounmpo can protect Portis on defense, though the Heat should continue going at Portis in the pick-and-roll. Tucker and Portis provide spacing for Antetokounmpo. Portis' limitations on defense are less damaging against opposing backups.
After cycling through frontcourt reserves who didn't quite fit on the biggest stages -- Nikola Mirotic, Ersan Ilyasova, Marvin Williams, Robin Lopez -- the Bucks may have clicked into place with Tucker and Portis. (That said, I suspect we would see lineups with Tucker and Antetokounmpo as the only bigs in a potential Bucks-Nets series.)
Both Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton have improved from 3-point range. When one or both shoot well, Milwaukee is very hard to beat.
When the Bucks feel emboldened -- when they're hunting a game-clinching run, or facing an opposing lineup that doesn't scare them -- they juice up their shooting around Antetokounmpo. What are you supposed to do against a lineup of Forbes, Holiday, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Portis?
Budenholzer has been diligent keeping two of his three stars on the floor for most of the first two games against Miami. That stabilizes the Bucks, and shrinks the number of hiding places for Miami's weakest defenders. One key Miami bench-heavy lineup features Dragic, Herro, and Nunn, and the Bucks have rejiggered their rotation to exploit that.
The Heat could adjust by playing more with only one of the Herro/Robinson/Nunn/Dragic quartet -- effectively upsizing by shifting minutes to Ariza, Andre Iguodala, and Dewayne Dedmon alongside Butler and Adebayo. Erik Spoelstra experimented with the Adebayo-Dedmon pairing once Game 2 got out of hand. But the Heat won't score enough in such alignments. We might see the Adebayo-Dedmon duo again -- it worked fine -- but I doubt it's something Spoelstra really wants to use. Miami could try Nemanja Bjelica's combination of size and shooting, but he's not going to help on defense.
This general theme looms in any potential Bucks-Nets series -- one blue-blood Big Three against another less-heralded one consisting of two sub-lottery first-rounders and a throw-in to the Brandon Jennings/Brandon Knight trade.
Two of Brooklyn's stars -- James Harden and Kyrie Irving -- are below-average defenders, though both put up resistance when they dial in. The Bucks would hunt for mismatches against them the way they are hunting Miami's guards. The Nets would be more likely than the Heat have been so far to switch, and test the respective post games -- and kickout passing skills -- of Milwaukee's stars.
Antetokounmpo set all those ball screens against Brooklyn in January because the Nets were guarding him with DeAndre Jordan, and having Jordan sag way off Antetokounmpo. The obvious counter was having Antetokounmpo screen, Draymond Green-style, and catapult Milwaukee's best shooters into the open space Jordan was conceding. We may see that chess match again with Jordan, or maybe someday in the playoffs against Joel Embiid.
But the Bucks have to get by Miami first. The Heat get their first home game tonight. They are tough, and fiery, and will not lay down. They can absolutely get back in this series, and will bust out adjustments of their own. Some other things to watch:
* The Heat should be as predatory hunting Forbes as the Bucks have been hunting Miami's guards.
* To that end, they could start Dragic for Nunn.
* Adebayo has to shoot some jumpers, and assert himself on offense. He's a good shooter, and more than capable of using all that space Lopez is giving him as a runway. If the Heat are switching on defense, Adebayo may find himself with a size mismatch after stops -- and a chance for a quick-hitting post-up.
* Butler was icy in Game 1 and oddly quiet in Game 2, and the Heat can't win with a quiet Butler. He made mincemeat out of Middleton last season, and can probably be more aggressive going at that match-up if he has it.
* The Bucks are going under screens against Butler, and his appetite for launching jumpers comes and goes. Miami had some success in Game 2 setting very low screens for Butler -- freeing him for shorter jumpers -- or rescreening to get Butler forward momentum:
* Butler has a speed advantage over Tucker, and the Heat can find ways to leverage that when Tucker takes Butler. Tucker has also been a beat late switching onto Miami's guards a few times -- yielding just enough airspace for clean 3s.
* If the Bucks defend Miami's first action with Adebayo as screener, the Heat can pivot right into another Adebayo-centric set on the other side. Don't let Lopez and Milwaukee's drop-back scheme off the hook after one try. Make the Bucks do it over and over. That might unlock Herro, who has been invisible through two games.
Watch how this Dragic-Adebayo pick-and-roll morphs into an Adebayo handoff for Herro -- with Lopez nowhere near the ball:
Milwaukee defends well, but that side-to-side continuity puts so much pressure on their perimeter defenders. One blip -- one hesitation, one false step -- and a good shooter is open.
Here's Adebayo flowing from a pick-and-roll with Butler into a pindown for Robinson -- earning a three-shot foul:
Perhaps Adebayo can even run more pick-and-roll as ball handler -- with one of Miami's shooters screening for him.
Spoelstra and his staff will concoct dozens of other mini-adjustments. They'll have to, because the Bucks team that showed up to Game 2 -- including with the defending MVP screening more -- is the one we have waited to see.