After an unpredictable regular season, which lower-seeded NBA teams are most likely to pull upsets in the first round of the playoffs?
This year's bracket may force us to reconsider our definition of the term. Typically, when I've ranked the first-round series in terms of the chances of the team without home-court advantage winning, those have in fact meant upsets. But this year, two lower seeds (the No. 5 Atlanta Hawks and the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers) are favored to win their series according to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. For our purposes, we'll stick with defining upsets by seeding.
Should the Hawks and Lakers be favored? And which lower seeds are most likely to join them in advancing to the second round? Let's break down all eight series based on projections from ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI).
1. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers over No. 2 Phoenix Suns: 61%
This series exemplifies why BPI projections were reconfigured last postseason, based on the players expected to see action rather than team performance over the course of the season. The 17 games the Lakers played with neither Anthony Davis nor LeBron James, going 8-9, doesn't tell us much about their chances in this series. As I noted earlier this week, Phoenix's stars were unusually healthy by contrast, with the team's four regular starters (Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and Chris Paul) missing just 10 games combined.
At full strength, the Lakers look like the stronger team. The question is whether they're at full strength. The Lakers didn't look it during the first half of their play-in tournament win over the Golden State Warriors, which saw Davis, LeBron and third-leading scorer Dennis Schroder shoot a combined 4-of-28 from the field.
Nonetheless, the Lakers rallied behind their consistently stout defense and Frank Vogel going small after halftime with Anthony Davis playing the game's final 17 minutes at center. Lineups with Davis at center were the Lakers' trump card en route to the championship last season and look similarly strong this season.
The Suns have earned respect with a strong regular season start to finish, and a first-round loss would be unusual for a team so good. Phoenix won the equivalent of 58 games in a full 82-game schedule, and the only teams with a better winning percentage to lose in the opening round were the 2007-08 Dallas Mavericks, the 2010-11 San Antonio Spurs and the 2011-12 Chicago Bulls. Unfortunately for the Suns, most high seeds don't draw a No. 7 seed nearly this dangerous.
2. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks over No. 4 New York Knicks: 58%
The Hawks and Knicks submitted nearly identical regular seasons in terms of overall performance. Both went 41-31 and, as John Hollinger of The Athletic noted, they were separated by one point over 72 games in terms of differential. So why does BPI favor Atlanta without home-court advantage?
The explanation stems from the lingering effect of performance before this season in BPI ratings. There's a strong case for including that. I found earlier this week that teams who dramatically outperform their preseason over/under win totals tend to be more vulnerable to upsets in the playoffs.
As in Suns-Lakers, there's also a wide gap in terms of health during the regular season. The Hawks lost the third-most wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric to players absent due to injury, illness, rest or the NBA's health & safety protocols. New York was in the bottom 10 in that measure. Cam Reddish is the only Atlanta player who hasn't returned from injury.
Still, I wonder if BPI is underrating the legitimate improvement the Knicks have made defensively over the course of the season. After relying heavily on unsustainably poor opponent 3-point shooting to rank in the top five defensively in the first half, New York built a defense good enough to survive regression to the mean in terms of opponent shooting luck. The Hawks may win, but this series will be a grind.
3. No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers over No. 3 Denver Nuggets: 51%
BPI favors a third team without home-court advantage, splitting narrowly from the oddsmakers in giving Portland an ever-so-slight edge in the rematch of a 2018 second-round series that went the full seven games. Injuries to Will Barton (hamstring strain) and PJ Dozier (adductor strain) are key factors, testing Denver's guard depth after the loss of Jamal Murray to an ACL tear. The sooner Barton and Dozier can return, the better the Nuggets' chances.
Additionally, the Blazers' rating benefits from how well their starting five has played after getting CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic back from injuries and adding Norman Powell at the trade deadline. According to NBA Advanced Stats, only one lineup in the NBA has played more minutes with a better net rating than Portland's plus-13.4 points per 100 possessions in 370 minutes with those five players: the Philadelphia 76ers' starting five (plus-14.0 in 656 minutes).
4. No. 6 Miami Heat over No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks: 46%
Despite finishing as the No. 6 seed in the East, the Heat are rated the sixth-best team in the playoffs by BPI, one spot behind the Bucks. They finished the regular season on a 12-4 tear, albeit one built heavily on wins over lottery-bound teams. Just two of those 12 wins came against teams that finished in the top six in either conference.
I certainly agree that Miami is a more dangerous first-round opponent than a 40-32 record and a neutral point differential (plus-0.1 ppg) would indicate. With Jimmy Butler in the lineup, the Heat went 33-19 with a plus-2.5 differential. But I don't quite buy that these two teams are equally talented before accounting for how well Miami matches up with Milwaukee as we saw in last year's second-round upset by the Heat.
5. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks over No. 4 LA Clippers: 35%
In theory, the 4-5 matchup should be the closest in the West. In practice, it looks more lopsided. The Clippers seemed happy to drop to fourth with losses to the lowly Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder in their last two games, but posted the West's second-best differential at plus-6.2 ppg. Meanwhile, the Mavericks won a three-team tie for fifth with a far worse differential (plus-2.2) than last year's matchup with the Clippers as the seventh seed (plus-4.9).
6. No. 7 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets: 22%
A 50-point outburst from Jayson Tatum was enough to lift the Celtics out of the play-in tournament. Beating the Nets four times will be a far greater challenge. Brooklyn swept the season series despite having Durant and James Harden available for just one of those games each. Kyrie Irving was the only All-Star available for the Nets in a 109-104 home win on April 30.
7 (tie). No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies over No. 1 Utah Jazz: 10%
Watching at home in Salt Lake City, the Jazz had to be thrilled to see Friday's play-in tournament finale go to overtime -- ahead of a quick turnaround before Game 1 on Sunday night -- and then to see Memphis upset the Golden State Warriors.
As impressive as they were in withstanding the Warriors' second-half comeback, the young Grizzlies don't look like nearly as dangerous an opponent. Golden State would've been given a 30% chance of knocking off Utah.
7 (tie). No. 8 Washington Wizards vs. No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers: 10%
Perhaps if Bradley Beal were healthy, the Wizards would have a reasonable chance of pulling an enormous upset after going 15-4 over a 19-game stretch prior to Beal's hamstring knocking him out of the lineup. Although Beal is back, he hasn't looked like himself, which cost Washington in their loss to Boston in the play-in tournament. Trying to beat Philadelphia at full strength is hard enough. Without Beal, the task becomes nearly impossible.