Although this team finished 34-38 and got blown out in the play-in round against the Indiana Pacers, the reality is that this Charlotte Hornets roster overachieved. And for once the franchise has a foundation in place for the future.
At one point of the season, the Hornets lost Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges and Devonte' Graham to injuries and still managed a top-10 record in the East. Hayward played his last game of the season on April 2 and he and Ball missed a total of 45 games because of injury.
Now heading into the offseason, the Hornets could have up to $20 million to use in free agency and retool around a roster that returns Ball, Hayward, Bridges, Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington and possibly Graham, who is set to become a restricted free agent.
So how should Charlotte approach this offseason, and what moves can the Hornets make to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016?
Cap space or own free agents?
The Hornets are one of the six teams who project to have cap space this offseason. However, in order to create that room (a projected $22 million), Charlotte has a decision to make on free agents Cody Zeller and Malik Monk.
Zeller has a $23 million cap hold and Monk is on the books for $16 million, pushing the Hornets over the cap despite having only $83 million in committed salary (including the $9 million dead-money charge for the waived-and-stretched contract of Nicolas Batum).
Before the season started, the option of creating room was thought to be a no-brainer. Monk had a nondescript first three seasons in a Hornets uniform, the third of which ended with a suspension for violating the league's anti-drug policy.
This year, Monk had 13 DNPs in the first 17 games. It seemed like the former lottery pick was going to be traded at some point this season or that the Hornets would not extend him a one-year, $7 million qualifying offer when the current season ended.
"I thought I was going to be in the rotation, then I wasn't in the rotation. I was pissed -- very, very, very, very pissed," Monk told the Charlotte Observer in January. "But I just stuck with it."
Monk eventually got an opportunity to crack the rotation in late January, playing a total of 28 minutes and scoring 13 points in a home-and-home series with Indiana. Two nights later in Miami, Monk posted a career-high 36 points on 9-of-13 shooting from 3. In the next 24 games, Monk averaged 14.1 points on 39.4% shooting from 3, posting at least 10 points 18 times.
Monk will certainly now receive that qualifying offer and the question now for the front office becomes what is their comfort level in both salary and years on a multiyear deal for Monk.
According to ProFitX, Monk's starting salary in 2021-22 projects to be $8.4 million, a salary comparable to Philadelphia 76ers guard Seth Curry. If Monk comes in at that number, the Hornets could have the best of both worlds: their sixth man on a contract that is comparable to the midlevel exception and more than $13 million in cap space (plus their $4.9 million room midlevel exception) to use to sign a free agent like Sacramento Kings big man Richaun Holmes.
Zeller is the longest-tenured member of the roster, having been drafted by the then-Bobcats with the No. 4 pick in 2013. He was an opening-night starter for Charlotte this year, but broke his left hand and missed the next 13 games. He eventually settled into a bench role, averaging 9.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in his 26 games as a reserve.
Zeller has a wide salary range, projecting anywhere from the minimum exception to $4.9 million (comparable to Portland's Enes Kanter) up to $8 million (Mason Plumlee). Coach James Borrego has made it well known that an upgrade at center this offseason is a priority.
"Every night I'm just trying to figure it out with that group [of centers]. It's been like that for three years," Borrego told the Charlotte Observer after watching the Hornets get outrebounded 54-33 in a loss to Celtics this season. "It may be another three years that we continue to look like that, actually."
One direction that Charlotte can go is to act as a team over the cap and bring back both players. Charlotte would then have the $9.5 million midlevel exception and the $3.7 million biannual exception to use.
Note: ProFitX is a dynamic financial and performance index powered by Artificial Intelligence with front-office optics displaying 17 visual and time-series models for 480+ NBA Athletes. The Athledex models historical, dynamic & future performance data to monitor and project insights on contracts, performance, injuries, team fit, development, and potential.
The restricted free agent: Devonte' Graham
Unlike with Monk or Zeller, the Hornets are not forced to make a cap-related decision as it relates to Devonte' Graham.
Because he was drafted in the second round, Graham's cap hold is just $4.7 million. That allows the Hornets to use room first (if Monk or Zeller are not signed or brought back on a lower contract) before signing Graham to a new contract that exceeds the cap.
Graham is one of the great success stories in the NBA, going from averaging 14.7 minutes his rookie season (and spending 13 games in the G-League) to starting a combined 97 games over the past two seasons, averaging 16.6 PPG in that span.
Although Graham has never shot above 40% in his career and 70% of his attempts come from 3, the 26-year old has found ways to make an impact. He had 19 games this season with at least seven assists, and ranked No. 6 among all point guards in real plus-minus. He also cut down on turnovers, going from 2.9 per game in 2019-20 to 1.5 this season.
However, it remains to be seen how he fits on a team with a healthy LaMelo Ball. Is Graham better suited to come off the bench in a sixth man role? Or can Borrego start a three-guard lineup of Ball, Graham and Terry Rozier?
The three players started only one game together but shared the court for 150 minutes this season (56 in the fourth quarter) and had a net rating of +2.3 in those minutes.
Graham is a restricted free agent and the Hornets will have the right to match on an offer sheet. Graham's starting number is $8 million (comparable to Denver Nuggets guard Monte Morris) and could increase as high as $11 million, slightly above the midlevel exception. The salary projection according to ProFitX is $9.6 million.
Extensions for Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges
We would normally reserve the extension breakdown until the end but the play of Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges this season warranted their own section.
Two years ago, Rozier's three-year, $56.7 million contract was thought of as an overpay. The Hornets were paying starter money (an average of $19 million per season) to a player who never averaged more than 26 minutes nor shot above 40% in four seasons with the Boston Celtics.
Now as Rozier enters the final year of that contract, he's seen as one of the bargains in the NBA. Rozier posted career highs in offensive rating (110.9), true shooting percentage (57.5%), field goal percentage (45.0%) and points per game (20.4) this season. He's also become incredibly efficient in the midrange, going from a 39.5% shooter to a 57.4% shooter on shots taken 10-14 feet from the basket, per NBA.com.
Rozier is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, but because his salary is declining (from $18.9 to $17.9 million), the maximum that Charlotte can offer is $96.3 million over four seasons. The cap hit in the first year of the extension would be $21.5 million, comparable to the 2022-23 salary projection by ProFitX.
Bridges is best known for his highlight dunks but quietly put together his most efficient season. Moved to the bench as a result of the Gordon Hayward signing, the forward shot a career high 50.3% from the field and 40% from 3. In the 19 games that Bridges did start, the forward averaged 18.6 points on 50.8% from the field and 41.8% from 3.
Per NBA.com, Bridges is shooting 68.2% from inside 5 feet (55.9% last year) and 89% of his shot attempts have either come from the short distance or beyond 20 feet.
Unlike Rozier, who can be extended at any time this upcoming season, Bridges would have to sign an extension by the day before the first regular-season game.
Offseason Cap Breakdown
Team needs
Starting center
Backup point and shooting guard
Depth at power forward and center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: First and second round (two picks)
Cap space: Projected $22M (and still sign RFA Graham)
Own free agents: Zeller, Graham and Monk but at the risk of cap space
Exceptions: $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual or $4.9 million room
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Hornets have until Aug. 1 to extend qualifying offers to Malik Monk, Devonte' Graham and Brad Wanamaker, making them restricted free agents. Because Monk failed to average 34.25 starts over the past two seasons (or start 36 games this year), his qualifying offer is $7.0 million (the amount equal to a player selected 15th in the 2017 NBA draft). Graham met the starter criteria this season and saw his qualifying offer increase from $2.1 million to $4.7 million. The one-year offer for Wanamaker is $2.8 million.
• There is a TBD for now next to the guaranteed dates for the $1.7 million contracts of Cody Martin, Caleb Martin and Jalen McDaniels. Both Martins had an original July 15 guaranteed date and McDaniels' was on Aug. 1. However, because the NBA salary-cap calendar for 2021-22 is not set to begin until Aug. 3, each date is likely to be pushed back a month. McDaniels started 14 games this season, averaging 10.8 and 5.1 rebounds. He scored a season-high 21 points in a win against Oklahoma City. Since the All-Star break, Cody Martin had his minutes increase from 11.6 to 20. He started 10 games this season and had a season-high 13 points in a win against Boston. His brother Caleb started two games, averaging 5 points. He has struggled shooting the ball, going from 44% a year ago to 37.9% this season while also shooting 25.2% from 3. Because of the minimum salary charge for an incomplete roster, the Hornets would gain only an additional $700K in cap space if any of the players are waived.
Restrictions
• Gordon Hayward has a 15% trade bonus. If Hayward is traded in the offseason the bonus would be worth $13.9 million and Charlotte is responsible for paying the full amount.
• The contracts of Cody Martin, Caleb Martin and Jalen McDaniels do not have any outgoing trade value because their salary is non-guaranteed.
Extension candidates
• Besides Rozier and Bridges, both Martins and Jalen McDaniels are extension-eligible.
The draft
The Hornets have fared well in the draft, stockpiling young talent like LaMelo Ball, P.J. Washington, Miles Bridges and Devonte' Graham. This July they will look to add to that group with three selections: their own first and two seconds (from Brooklyn and the LA Clippers).
The Hornets own all their future firsts in future years.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Charlotte selecting in July:
No. 12 (own): Corey Kispert, SF, Gonzaga
No. 56 (via LAC): Trendon Watford, PF, LSU
No. 57 (via BKN): Herbert Jones, SF, Alabama
Since taking over in April of 2018, GM Mitch Kupchak has made four trades at the draft, most notably in 2018, when The Hornets traded two future seconds to Atlanta for the No. 34 pick, which Charlotte used to select Devonte' Graham.