For the Brooklyn Nets, trading for James Harden was a calculation as much as it was a transaction.
Harden wanted to play with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But before shoving in all their chips to make it happen, the Nets spent time studying the landscape. What they saw was a cresting wave of offense in the NBA -- and they wanted to be the surfer on top.
For the past five years, offensive output has been on the rise. But this season is wiping out the record books. To put it in perspective, last season the Dallas Mavericks had the greatest offensive season in modern record (since 1973-74) when they averaged 116.7 points per 100 possessions.
That now ranks eighth all time as seven teams have blazed their way past that mark this season, led by Brooklyn's 118.3.
The 2020-21 season has been the greatest 2-point-shooting season on record (53%), the greatest 3-point-shooting season on record (36.7%), even the greatest foul-shooting season on record (77.8%).
There are many reasons for it: The emphasis on shooting over the past decade, the adaptation of offensive systems that stretch defenses, the lack of practice and prep time, the limitation of home-court advantage and, of course, COVID-19 restrictions that have taxed teams in various ways.
With the playoffs starting, coaching staffs have been discussing whether offenses will pull back in the playoffs in the usual ways. The answer is a mystery.
With more time between games and teams able to focus on planning for one opponent with some practice time, scoring typically slows down. The playoffs have routinely seen declining pace, declining points and a premium on savvy and stout defense as the pressure increases.
"We've been talking about this," Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens said. "I anticipate, like every other series, if you get into the playoffs and you're going to know the other team inside and out. So as you get into Games 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, every possession becomes harder and harder to score in the half court. Right?"
Said Utah Jazz coach Quin Snyder: "If history holds true, when teams have an opportunity to game-plan the game slows down because people are trying to take things away. With the intensity of the playoffs, I would anticipate that happening on the same level."
History, anticipation, expectation. Maybe that is right. Maybe it's not. The Nets, who set the record for the greatest regular-season offense ever, have made a large bet that scoring won't abate -- and they are not alone in that thinking.
"Brooklyn is ahead of all of us," said one league executive. "People look at them and say they don't have a good defense. Well that's the answer to the wrong question."
The right question, some believe as they've watched the unrelenting pace of scoring this season, focuses not on the quality of a defense but its versatility. With the speed of the small lineups and the quick release of shooters -- pull-up 3-pointers, one of the toughest plays to defend, are also being made at a record pace (34%) -- sometimes the only chance is to try to be flexible with lineups.
That redefining of what makes defense "good" has some of the league's top minds expecting this postseason to follow right along in this scoring bonanza.
"I don't think there's anything to suggest the offensive numbers will go down with the playoffs," said Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. "It's been an interesting year to attempt to develop game plans and a defensive system to combat the firepower and skill level and shooting that you're facing every single night. Defenses are all relative now."
Here's what Spoelstra means by "relative." This season the Heat own a top-10 defense, allowing 111.2 points per 100 possessions. Ten years ago, during the 2011-12 season, they would have been dead last in defense with that number. Three years ago, during the 2017-18 season, they would have been 28th.
In last season's playoffs, where the Heat made a magical run to the Finals led by iron-nosed defender Jimmy Butler, the Heat's defense was worse than in this regular season. But their offense, led by the long-range shooting of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, was great.
Last season the Milwaukee Bucks went 56-17 and had the best record in the league thanks to far and away the best defense. In the playoffs they had a better defensive rating than the champion Los Angeles Lakers and a large (by statistical standards) advantage on defense against the Heat, allowing three fewer points per 100 possessions.
But the Bucks were home after the second round and the Heat moved on.
"Last year Milwaukee had a great defensive team, but Miami had a versatile defensive team," one scout said. "I don't care if your tallest guy is 6-5."
Which is why this season the Bucks experimented with playoff-style defense, particularly switching on pick-and-rolls, during the regular season in an effort to prepare for the postseason. They also traded at midseason for P.J. Tucker, who is 6-foot-5 but can defend wings, power forwards and centers.
In the past, playoff preparation has included specialty defenses aimed at taking away opponents' favorite sets. Or elaborate schemes aimed at disguising coverages or creatively bringing help defense. Strategies that can't be installed in normal regular-season prep.
Those are still in the game plans but, frankly, they might not be as effective.
"[Gregg] Popovich used to call sets about 90% of the time, now it's maybe 1 in 10," said one coach. "The game is played too quickly now; the offenses are all read and react."
But there's something else that perhaps can't be charted as effectively that could play a role in this uncertainty. Officiating, which naturally adjusts from game to game, tends to be looser in the playoffs. Simply put, veteran officials who work playoff games often allow for more physical play that can help defenses.
"This has been a tough season for the referees," one general manager said. "But in the playoffs, it's understood that the quality of the officials and the way they call it changes."
"Defense will come back in the playoffs," said one head coach. "Along with the referees letting you play it more."
Because of all these factors, it's hard to say whether this postseason will be a referendum on the direction of the league. But whoever is right about the immediate future -- the traditionalists or the offense-driven -- could end up the winner.
"Really good coaches in this league that know what they're doing," Utah's Snyder said, "and players who've been in those situations and are very capable of implementing game plans [will make] adjustments on their own. Will be interesting to see what happens."
ESPN's Kevin Pelton contributed to this story.