This wild 2020-21 regular season is over -- and the play-in games are finally set. It's Russell Westbrook vs. Jayson Tatum on Tuesday, and Stephen Curry vs. LeBron James on Wednesday. Here's Part 2 of my official NBA awards ballot. (Part 1 is here.)
ALL-NBA
First team
F: Luka Doncic
C: Nikola Jokic
Second team
G: Chris Paul
G: Jimmy Butler
F: LeBron James
C: Joel Embiid
Third team
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Bradley Beal
F: Paul George
C: Rudy Gobert
* There were three first-team locks: Curry, Antetokounmpo, and Jokic. One of Lillard and Doncic was a lock for the second guard spot.
That left one pesky forward spot. For most of the past two months, I had Leonard there: 25 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5 assists on almost 50/40/90 shooting -- with borderline All-Defense work on the other end. I'd be fine with him on first-team.
But Leonard finished with a bit of a whimper: 20-plus points in only two of the Clippers' last 18 games. He ended up about 500 minutes short of Doncic.
I toyed with Butler, who had the league's most underappreciated great season. I have seen Butler left off a few All-NBA ballots, and I understand how hard these choices are. But every evaluation type -- traditional stats, advanced stats, eye test, importance to team -- suggest Butler has to be here. His advanced numbers are a hair ahead of Leonard's.
But Butler and Leonard logged almost the same amount of minutes.
The league made Doncic eligible at forward and guard. He was No. 5 on my MVP ballot, over Lillard. With that huge minutes edge, I decided to shift him to forward and get him on the first team -- so four of my MVP top five were here.
The one missing, of course, is Embiid, and it is fair to ask why I (and many voters) won't take advantage of the same positional leeway and slot Embiid into that forward spot.
I have always tried to remain at least semi-realistic with positions as long as the league is using positional designations. Embiid is a pure center. Doncic is more amorphous. He acts as the Mavs' point guard, which is why most voters start by considering him at guard; but by that logic, James -- listed at forward most of his career -- has been a "guard" all along. (The league made James eligible at guard last season, and again this time.)
Seven of the Mavs' eight most-used lineups featuring Doncic match him with two of Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson. What position is Doncic in those groups? On offense, Doncic is at least as much "point forward" as "point guard." He defends both guards and forwards -- whatever is convenient night-to-night.
It felt more honest slotting Doncic at forward than Embiid. Other voters might feel differently -- I have seen Embiid on several first-team ballots -- and that's fine. I had him No. 2 in MVP, so he's obviously worthy.
* Having Embiid as first-team forward would have vaulted Gobert to second team, and opened the third-team center spot for someone: Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis, Clint Capela, Nikola Vucevic. That person would have replaced one of the last guards or forwards, and I thought all those guards/forwards were more deserving.
The league could have solved that issue in any number of ways, including by making Randle eligible at center. That is no more ridiculous -- and maybe less so -- than having Embiid eligible at forward. Randle played 39 minutes alongside Obi Tobbin; who was the "center" there? A lot of opponents have centers defend Randle to neuter his post game. Does that count for anything?
Oh well. There were a lot of reasonable outcomes. None of them feels awesome. This is where I ended up.
* Four second-team spots were no-brainers. The fifth went to LeBron. It will be interesting to see whether LeBron makes All-NBA at all. I bet he will.
He played 45 of 72 games, and 1,504 minutes. James Harden played 44 games and 1,609 minutes. Harden had a majestic half-season in Brooklyn; he was mounting a legit MVP case before suffering hamstring issues, and was one of my last cuts.
Eight of those 44 games and 290 of those 1609 minutes marked Harden's final moments with the Houston Rockets. Harden put up numbers, but if you watched, you know he wasn't exactly going full throttle or playing in a way that evinced his normal interest level in whether the Rockets won or lost.
Those games matter. They mark a distinction between the 2020-21 seasons of LeBron and Harden. I also don't think it's unreasonable to give James -- provided he meets some threshold of games -- the "duh, we all know he's the best player, and he might have won MVP" benefit of the doubt.
That's the main reason he snags this second spot over Randle, despite Randle logging 1,100 (!) more minutes. I almost had Randle here, but deferred in the end to James' obvious and historic greatness. We can probably trust Randle's improved jumper will sustain into next season; we know we can trust James.
I ordered things this way knowing I would put Randle on the third team; he was not at risk of missing my ballot. I suspect some voters will slot him into that same pesky first-team forward spot I gave Doncic, and that's reasonable too.
One way or another, Randle should make All-NBA.
* With Gobert and Randle in, that left three spots for some combination of Irving, Beal, George, Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum. (Several other candidates, including Jrue Holiday, Zach LaVine, Trae Young, Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook, Jaylen Brown, and De'Aaron Fox got hard looks, but fell one mini-tier short of the above short list of "snubs.")
I had Simmons third-team last season. He was even better on defense this season -- third on my Defensive Player of the Year ballot -- and his inside-out passing is the main source of Philadelphia's catch-and-shoot diet. But he averaged 14 points, and for long stretches looked tentative attacking the rim.
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Mitchell was probably on track for one guard spot before his ankle injury. His first dozen games were scattershot, but he played like a superstar for the final 30-plus. I almost had him here; he would be a fine choice.
Ditto for Booker, who probably would have made my ballot last season (over Simmons) had voters been allowed to factor in bubble games. But his advanced stats are well below these other guys, and most evidence labels Paul the No. 1 engine of Phoenix's incredible season. Booker was among the very last cuts.
The last one, though, was Williamson, and it was the toughest -- so much so that he was on my ballot up until the last 72 hours. He is undeniable with the ball: averaging 27 points on 61% shooting (!), plus almost four assists -- and more, once the Pelicans handed him the offense. He's a liability on defense, but so are some other candidates.
I initially had Williamson as one third-team forward, bumping George to guard (he's eligible at both positions) and eliminating one of Irving and Beal. The lottery-bound Pelicans have a worse record than Beal's play-in Wizards, but other measures of team quality -- point differential, whatever -- paint New Orleans as at least Washington's equal.
But, man, it's hard to ignore 31 points for a team that was often bereft of shooting around Beal. I'm not sure any player other than Curry received more attention -- more bodies around him, more limbs in his line of sight -- than Beal popping off a screen.
That the Wizards only took off once Russell Westbrook matched Beal's production (and sometimes exceeded it) is not an indictment of Beal's All-NBA case, or evidence that Westbrook is the real driver of Washington's success. It was proof of what this season's Wizards could be once Beal had a peer -- what laid dormant before then. The whole, healthy version of the Wizards has trended toward being a solid, winning team. The Pelicans were never that.
Westbrook's first 20-plus games just weren't good enough to crack All-NBA. (He was a net-negative in a fair number of those games.) The Wizards still ended with a better point differential in Beal-only minutes than in the Westbrook-only subset, per NBA.com.
* As for Irving, it felt wrong having zero Nets even if circumstances would have justified it. Irving has been the closest thing to a constant among Brooklyn's three stars, and was unstoppable: 27 points on 50/40/90 shooting. He was efficient in crunch time. On most nights, he competed on defense with active hands.
The Nets outscored opponents (barely, but still) when Irving played without both Harden and Kevin Durant.
* George enjoyed another fine two-way season, with career-best passing numbers.
That left Williamson as the final cut. But really, you can't go wrong with any of George, Beal, Irving, Williamson, Mitchell, Booker, and maybe Tatum for those final few spots.
ALL-DEFENSE
First team
G: Ben Simmons
G: Jimmy Butler
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Rudy Gobert
Second team
G: Marcus Smart
G: Jrue Holiday
F: Bam Adebayo
C: Joel Embiid
* Gobert, Green, and Simmons went 1-2-3 on my Defensive Player of the Year ballot, so they were first-team locks.
* Antetokounmpo took a slight step back from last season, when he was a deserving Defensive Player of the Year. He didn't always handle switches cleanly as the Bucks diversified their schemes. But he remains one of the league's half-dozen best defenders -- a rim-protector and all-position wrecker who defends every play type well, per Second Spectrum.
* Butler is as stout as ever. He can defend all three perimeter positions, and hold his own against power forwards when the Heat ask it of him. He seems to love getting switched onto centers, and stonewalls all but the very best. He led the league in steals without gambling out of position. He's a good rebounder. He's rugged, unrelenting, unpleasant to play against.
* The most painful omissions (among many!) were Mikal Bridges, Capela, Leonard, George, and especially OG Anunoby. (Pascal Siakam had an underrated season flying around in the Toronto Raptors helter-skelter scheme, but Anunoby was better. Luguentz Dort was close behind too. )
Capela has the disadvantage of being listed only at center. There were games and even weeks when he was at least Embiid's equal. He was probably more consistent. Capela is relentless around the rim and on the glass. He logged about 300 more minutes than Embiid. He would be a fine choice for the second team (over Embiid and Jakob Poeltl).
But Embiid's peak is higher, and he was around that level for a large chunk of his minutes. A fully engaged Embiid is maybe the most intimidating and impactful defender in the game. Embiid is stronger than Gobert in the post, a little nimbler in space.
With a full minutes allotment, Embiid would have been right there for Defensive Player of the Year. Myles Turner was building a case before his injury, but I have him a tick below these other bigs -- mostly due to iffy rebounding.
* Adebayo played almost all his minutes at center, but the league kept him eligible at both center and forward. And, really, he guards everyone anyway. Adebayo is one of the league's 10 best defenders, so I'm taking advantage of that flexibility to reward him.
He is the league's best big-man switch defender. Adebayo switched on a league-high 511 ball screens this season, per Second Spectrum. Those switches bog down opposing offenses, dragging them into isolation mode. Adebayo defended 220 isolations -- second-most in the league. Opponents scored only 0.94 points per possession on those isos, per Second Spectrum.
When the Heat don't switch, they often trap -- another look enabled solely by Adebayo's speed and versatility. Imagine being a 6-3 point guard and having this dude flying at you, arms spread, legs churning? Egads.
Miami finished 9th in points allowed per possession despite blah defensive personnel around Adebayo and Butler. Adebayo is their keystone, just as Gobert is Utah's. Miami's entire scheme and ideology collapses without Adebayo.
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* I can understand Phoenix and Toronto fans being frustrated Anunoby and Bridges came in behind Holiday, Thybulle, and Smart. I struggled with Thybulle.
He averages only 20 minutes. In some games, he was on the fringes of Philly's rotation. Thybulle doesn't play as much as Bridges and Anunoby because he is way worse on offense. Those guys score well into double digits and play great defense over 30-plus minutes per game. Players with that kind of heavy-minutes, two-way burden should have a leg up here on defensive specialists. The latter group -- Thybulle types -- should face a higher bar.
Whenever that bar is, Thybulle clears it. He might be the best perimeter defender in the world. He's one of the best perimeter defenders I've ever seen. Thybulle is some sort of phantom. He doesn't move in normal ways. He's in one spot, and then suddenly, without warning, he's somewhere else 15 feet away -- only not enough time has passed for any human to traverse 15 feet. Thybulle doesn't move. He apparates.
He averaged five combined blocks and steals per 36 minutes, an absolutely absurd rate. He is straight-up destructive to your emotional well-being and physical safety. Having Thybulle on the floor is like playing with 5½ defenders.
So, yes, the Sixers -- with the league's No. 2 defense -- get three guys. The Lakers, Jazz, and Knicks -- owners of the Nos. 1, 3, 4 defenses, respectively -- end up with only Gobert.
New York pulled that off with a collection of B-plus defenders moving on a string -- amplifying each other, transforming into more than the sum of their parts. Reggie Bullock and Nerlens Noel probably deserve the most consideration, but they just aren't as good as these guys.
I'm not sure how the Lakers maintained with their two best defenders -- James and Anthony Davis -- missing huge stretches. LeBron is still incredible defensively. He has a case for one of these second-team spots. Shooters underperformed their expected effective-field goal percentage -- based on the location of each shot and the nearest defender -- by seven percentage points when LeBron was the closest defender to them, per Second Spectrum. That was the third-biggest negative differential of any defender. (Thybulle was No. 2.)
(Another Laker who ranks near the top of every advanced defensive stat -- and received consideration: Alex Caruso.)
Holiday fares poorly by that measure, but digging in further, it's mostly because opposing shooters canned an unusual amount of well-contested 3s. A lot of that is luck. Holiday ranks much better by other advanced metrics. He is one of the most fearsome and respected defenders in the league -- the rare guy quick enough to snatch the ball from Irving, and strong enough to withstand Randle in the post.
I thought Smart was a tick worse than in his best seasons, but he still belongs.
Bridges' advanced metrics aren't as glowing as I had expected. But he's a menace, and he defends the best opposing perimeter player almost every night regardless of position.
Anunoby is one of the league's best all-position defenders. He doesn't just switch onto centers; he sometimes starts games defending them. But he missed 29 games, and he's kind of an (unfair) casualty of Toronto's strange season.
Other honorable mentions include: Dejounte Murray; Derrick White; Dillon Brooks; T.J. McConnell; Tatum; Dorian Finney-Smith; Royce O'Neale; Leonard; George; Robert Covington.
ALL-ROOKIE
First team
Second team
* No positions for All-Rookie!
* There were eight must-haves: the five on the first team, plus Tate, Stewart, and Bey. I wouldn't quibble with any combination of Tate, Stewart, Bey, Bane, and Quickley rounding out the first team after the top three on my Rookie of the Year ballot.
Bey led them in points. Tate led in many advanced stats. Stewart led in win shares, and was probably the best defender among them -- though Tate was rock-solid switching across almost every position.
Without much separating them statistically, I went with the two guys who put up their numbers on winning teams -- facing real stakes, real pressure.
Quickley quieted some over the past month, but he shot 39% from 3 and played crucial reserve minutes. His ultra-long 3s and running floater are two of the defining shots of this rookie class.
Bane averaged 9.3 points, below Bey and Tate, but Bane's sterling 43% mark on 3s stands out -- and made him a plug-and-play role player for a good team. He's a solid defender, and does enough off the bounce to keep the machine moving. He takes nothing off the table. You are never worried about him being exploited on either end.
* I had a half-dozen names penciled in for those last two spots at various points. I started out with Chuma Okeke and Jaden McDaniels, but Okeke hasn't played in three weeks, and McDaniels faded as the distant fifth option in the Timberwolves' starting five. He's a good multi-positional defender, and his shooting numbers (36% on 3s, 53% on 2s) are encouraging.
Tyrese Maxey finished strong, but he spent a lot of the season out of Philly's rotation. Ditto for Kenyon Martin Jr. in Houston. Cole Anthony might have made my ballot had he not missed so much time with injuries.
Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams, and Theo Maledon finished second, fourth, and sixth, respectively, in minutes among rookies; Williams was on my midseason second-team.
Okoro has been more daring on offense lately, flashing off-the-catch aggression that bodes well. Williams is going to be good, and maybe really, really good. He profiles as a major plus defender with a silky jumper. But he and Okoro did so little offensively on a per-minute basis, it's hard to know what to make of their candidacies. I'd be fine with Williams on second-team, but I leaned toward two guys who did a little more heavy lifting for one decent team and one very good one.
* Campazzo is not a normal rookie, of course. He's an international star! But he's on the ballot, and his fill-in work as a starter down the stretch won him the nod. Campazzo is a pest on defense, an all-world passer, and he hit just enough 3s -- 35.2% -- to keep defenses honest.
Pritchard's role fluctuated, but he was helpful whenever Brad Stevens called on him. He's a good defender with a knack for steals, and shot 41% on a healthy number of 3s. Pritchard can run some backup point guard, and play alongside one or both of Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker.