NBA Future Power Rankings: Predicting best, worst franchises

How will your team perform over the next three NBA seasons?

The Future Power Rankings are ESPN's projection of the on-court success expected for each team over the next three seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.

To determine the Future Power Rankings, we asked ESPN analysts Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks to rate teams in five categories and rank them relative to the rest of the league. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each category, click here. Each team also received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 100, based on how well we expect it to perform over the next three seasons.

Here are our latest rankings.

Note: The last version of these rankings dropped in April 2020.

For the first time in the 12-year history of our NBA Future Power Rankings, the Nets hold the top overall spot. Brooklyn ranked second in October 2019, fresh off signing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in free agency, but slipped to ninth last April, shortly after Kenny Atkinson's departure as head coach. Above and beyond the addition of James Harden and cultivation of a strong bench, giving the Nets the top overall score for players, we also have to give credit to the job Steve Nash and his experienced coaching staff (with Mike D'Antoni and Jacque Vaughn as assistants) have done managing this team. Brooklyn's title window looks wide open over the next three years. -- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 9)

Compared with the other teams in the top five, the Clippers have a bigger question mark: their ability to re-sign Kawhi Leonard, who can become the top unrestricted free agent this summer. Still, barring a second consecutive playoff collapse, the Clippers have to feel good about their chances of retaining Leonard, who chose to return to SoCal two years ago. They've already extended fellow All-Star Paul George and have done a nice job of building up their depth despite financial limitations as a tax-paying team. That tax bill won't be an issue for a team owned by Steve Ballmer. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 1)

The Lakers locked up LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma with new contracts in the offseason but still fall back one spot. The slight slip is a result of the uncertain future with the rest of the roster. The defending champions could enter the offseason with nine free agents, including Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell (player option), Talen Horton-Tucker (restricted) and Alex Caruso. If Schroder leaves for a better offer, the Lakers would have only the $9.5 million midlevel or possibly $5.9 million tax midlevel exception to replace him. Despite their limited flexibility to spend in free agency beyond re-signing their own players, the past two seasons have shown that the Lakers are a destination for free agents willing to take a discount for the chance to win a championship. -- Bobby Marks

(Previous rank: No. 2)

Although Jamal Murray is likely out until sometime next season, Denver jumps seven spots into the top four based on the strength of likely MVP winner Nikola Jokic. The combination of Jokic, the strong play of Michael Porter Jr. and the midseason addition of Aaron Gordon gives Denver a strong nucleus moving forward. If there is a concern, it would be financially. Porter can sign a rookie extension this offseason, Gordon is a free agent in 2022 and Jokic is eligible to sign a supermax extension next offseason. Combine those three future salaries with the Murray max contract and Denver is likely headed toward the luxury tax. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 11)

It's worth remembering that the Sixers' core is relatively young compared to their competitors for the Eastern Conference title. Joel Embiid is in his prime at age 27, while Ben Simmons won't turn 25 until July. In his first year on the job, president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has skillfully rebuilt around his stars, putting the 76ers atop the regular-season standings in the East. With Morey and new head coach Doc Rivers, Philly boasts a management team we rated tied for first in the NBA. And the Sixers also benefit from having all their own first-round picks going forward, unlike the contenders ahead of them who have already made win-now moves. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 12)

After signing two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and newcomer Jrue Holiday to long-term extensions taking them out of free agency this summer, the Bucks have their core in place. Only Brooklyn scored better in our players category. Yet Milwaukee drops behind the league's other top contenders because of limited flexibility to upgrade the roster. The Bucks will be in the luxury tax for at least the next couple of seasons, a challenge in a smaller market, and are out two of their three first-round picks in this span. There's also some uncertainty about whether Milwaukee might look to replace head coach Mike Budenholzer, the 2018-19 NBA Coach of the Year, should another playoff run end short of the conference finals. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 4)

No team in the history of the FPR has taken a bigger jump than the New York Knicks. A perennial bottom-feeder in the late 20s (they have an annual average of 25 since 2013), the Knicks are now a remarkable seventh. New York had annually ranked in the top five in money and market but took a big jump with regard to the roster. The All-NBA play of Julius Randle and development of RJ Barrett have New York moving up 10 spots from No. 28 last April. The Knicks are well positioned this offseason with over $50 million in cap space to either add another big-name player, bring back their own free agents (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Reggie Bullock) or maybe do a combination of the two. One drastic change to the rankings is where New York ranks in management. The hiring of head coach Tom Thibodeau and smart roster management by president Leon Rose now has the Knicks at No. 11; last year, they were dead last. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 27)

The Jazz moved up two spots from the last ranking and now rank in the top five in the players category. All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert both signed five-year contracts that will put them in a Jazz uniform for the foreseeable future, and the Jazz return seven of their top eight players in 2021-22. However, Utah is sitting right at the luxury tax threshold (No. 27 in money) in 2021-22 and is faced with a financial decision when it comes to free-agent point guard Mike Conley. One positive is that new owner Ryan Smith proved this year that the team is willing to spend and go into the tax in order to assemble a championship roster. The Jazz rank No. 1 in management and have a Coach of the Year candidate in Quin Snyder. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 10)

Phoenix's first playoff trip since 2010 can be the first of many if the Suns skillfully manage the combination of their young core and 36-year-old point guard Chris Paul. Paul can become an unrestricted free agent this summer by declining a $44.2 million player option, but he seems unlikely to leave after helping orchestrate a trade to Phoenix last fall. Long term, the Suns' payroll could be a concern when extensions for starters Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges kick in. That's a good problem to have given the role Ayton and Bridges have played alongside two-time All-Star Devin Booker in lifting Phoenix out of the lottery. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 19)

A year ago, the Mavericks were on the verge of cracking the top five of the FPR. Now Dallas slides back four spots despite having an MVP candidate in Luka Doncic. The concern with Dallas moving forward is the health of Kristaps Porzingis. Since signing a five-year, $158 million max contract in 2019, Porzingis has missed 40 games, including 32 with right knee soreness (he tore his left ACL while in New York). The Mavericks face a big offseason with the $200 million rookie extension of Doncic and the possibility of having $30 million in room. However, in order to become a spender, Dallas would lose two key contributors to its roster: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Richardson. -- Marks

(Previous rank: T-No. 6)

Much like the Mavericks, the Heat spent the past year-plus planning around having flexibility this summer for a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo in free agency. Unless Kawhi Leonard is interested in leaving the Clippers, that kind of franchise-altering star won't be available. Miami can still create about $20 million in cap space without renouncing the rights to starters Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson but might be better off staying over the cap and retaining veteran guard Goran Dragic and Bird rights for free agent Victor Oladipo. We trust the Heat's highly rated management team to figure out the right path this summer. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 8)

For the first time since September 2013, the Grizzlies are in the top 15 of the FPR. Memphis earns high marks for a roster (No. 10) that has been built through the draft (Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman) along with shrewd trades (Jonas Valanciunas, Grayson Allen and De'Anthony Melton). The Memphis front office has done a good job balancing the salary cap, considering that there are no players on the roster who will earn more than $14 million in 2021-22. If Jackson can stay healthy, expect the Grizzlies to crack the top 10 next year. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 18)

You would think that a team that finished out of the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and is faced with Kyle Lowry's uncertain future would tumble to the bottom of the rankings. No, the Raptors still have a strong foundation in place, led by Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Chris Boucher. They should be back contending for a top-six spot in the Eastern Conference next season. The Raptors' current ranking is higher than when Kawhi Leonard left after winning the NBA championship in 2019. The Raptors do tumble out of the top spot in management as a result of the uncertain future of Masai Ujiri. The Raptors' head of basketball operations is in the last year of his contract. -- Marks

(Previous rank: T-No. 6)

Much like in the East standings, the Celtics have tumbled from fifth in the Future Power Rankings after a disappointing regular season. Although Boston will stay competitive as long as All-Stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are together on the wings, their extensions will push the Celtics deep in the luxury tax. The Celtics need the young players on the roster to develop because their well of future first-rounders acquired via trade has run dry. There are also more questions about coach Brad Stevens now that Boston has underperformed expectations two of the past three seasons. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 5)

This feels too low for the Warriors, whose ability to straddle winning now and building for the future seems to have eluded the FPR formula. As long as Stephen Curry is healthy -- no guarantee, as we saw in 2019-20 -- this should be a floor for Golden State in the standings, particularly with Klay Thompson due back next season after two campaigns lost to injury. How high the Warriors can climb depends on the development of 2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman and the pick they get from the Minnesota Timberwolves to complete the Andrew Wiggins trade. That pick, top-three protected this year, could deliver Golden State one of this year's top prospects. Alternatively, if Minnesota retains the pick, the Warriors could be looking at a much lower pick in 2022, given the improvement the Timberwolves have shown in the second half of this season. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 3)

We will go out on a limb and say that the No. 16 ranking (up from No. 22 last April) for the Hawks will be short-lived. That is not to say that Atlanta is in danger of falling back into the 20s; a jump into the top 15 should be in the near future. The nucleus of this playoff team is under contract through the 2022-23 season, and although John Collins is a restricted free agent in the offseason, the Hawks have the right to match on an offer sheet. All-Star Trae Young can be a free agent in 2022, but the likelihood is that he will be signed to a rookie max extension this offseason. The big question for Atlanta is whether it will lift the interim tag on head coach Nate McMillan. The former Pacers coach has gone 23-11 since taking over for Lloyd Pierce. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 22)

The Hornets had annually received the award that no team wanted: last in the FPR. Since 2009, Charlotte had an average of 28.5, and it had finished last in four consecutive rankings before moving to No. 28 last April. Led by LaMelo Ball, the Hornets now have their highest ranking since September 2014. The drafting of Ball, P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges and free-agent signings of Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier have the Hornets' roster ranked No. 16, up 11 spots from a year ago. The improved roster is a credit to GM Mitch Kupchak and head coach James Borrego. The Hornets had annually ranked in the bottom of management but now rank No. 17. Keep an eye on Charlotte this offseason as well. It is one of a handful of teams that have cap space to use in free agency. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 28)

After taking steps toward embracing a new era built around young starters Keldon Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl and Derrick White, the Spurs face an important pivot point this summer. Will San Antonio re-sign leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, an unrestricted free agent who will turn 32 shortly after free agency begins? The other question looming in San Antonio is who might replace Gregg Popovich when the legendary coach, now 72 and the oldest coach in NBA history, decides to call it a career. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 20)

At the risk of implying Oklahoma City has a lot of draft picks coming, an attempt to rate teams on our 0-100 scale statistically scored them a 115 in this category. The Thunder could land two top-five picks this summer if their own selection moves up and they're able to swap an incoming pick for the Houston Rockets' first-rounder, which is top-four protected. Already there's enough young talent in Oklahoma City, led by guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort, that the Thunder were competitive before Gilgeous-Alexander and veteran Al Horford came out of the lineup. So while Oklahoma City will likely try to build slowly through the lottery, the Thunder should be on the rise by the end of the three-year period. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 14)

Since August 2010, the Pacers have ranked in the 20s only twice: after the Paul George trade and now. A contributing factor is the fall from No. 9 last April to No. 20 with regard to management. The steep drop is a result of the uncertain future of first-year head coach Nate Bjorkman, who has faced a turbulent season. While the Pacers have Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert and Myles Turner under contract through 2022-23, there is a concern that the upside of this roster has already peaked. One positive is that Indiana has tradable contracts (six players earning between $10 million and $22 million) to reshape this roster if needed. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 16)

In Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have the centerpiece in place to contend in the West. The question remains whether Williamson is surrounded by a sufficient supporting cast, just as it was with Anthony Davis before him. Even with Williamson staying healthy for much of the season, the Pelicans have a bottom-10 record in the NBA because of their dreadful (though improving) defense and a league-high 15 losses in games decided by five points or fewer. Worse yet, New Orleans faces a difficult decision on restricted free agent Lonzo Ball this summer, which could cost them a key starter. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 13)

This is the lowest the Blazers have been in the Future Power Rankings since August 2012, two months after they drafted Damian Lillard. Lillard has led Portland to seven consecutive playoff appearances, with an eighth likely in the offing, but the Blazers may be trending in the wrong direction, with three starters (Lillard, Robert Covington and CJ McCollum) in their 30s by opening night 2021 and limited financial flexibility. Our rating of Portland's management also has fallen because of the possibility that Terry Stotts, who has coached the Blazers throughout Lillard's career, might be replaced unless the team surprises in the playoffs. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 17)

The Bulls remain at No. 23 in the FPR despite trading for All-Star Nikola Vucevic at the deadline. Although Vucevic is under contract through 2022-23, Zach LaVine could become a free agent in 2022 if his contract is not renegotiated this offseason. Despite the possibility of not having their first-round pick this season (they also owe a future first to Orlando), there are avenues for the Bulls to improve the roster. They have two promising players in former lottery picks Coby White and Patrick Williams. They also have the expiring contracts of veterans Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky to use in a trade. One big question that Chicago will face in the offseason is the future of Lauri Markkanen. If the Bulls let Markkanen walk and waive Young and Satoransky, they could be looking at $31 million in cap space. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 23)

The Kings have De'Aaron Fox under contract for the next five seasons and a promising rookie in Tyrese Haliburton but still failed to make up ground. While Sacramento also has Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield under contract, we are left wondering about the rest of the roster. Former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III has shown promise but has spent more time on the injured list than on the court. The Kings are over the cap this offseason, and there is a question whether they can afford starting center Richaun Holmes and improve upon a bench that ranked near the bottom for most of the season. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 25)

This season has revealed two possible paths ahead for the Wizards. Over the past month, with Russell Westbrook piling up triple-doubles, Washington has looked capable of competing with anyone outside the East's top three. Before that, however, the Wizards were languishing outside the conference's top 10, with Westbrook's inefficiency an issue. As he ages, we fear more of Washington's first half, which would in turn lead to renewed questions about Bradley Beal's future in the District. The Wizards also suffer from a bottom-five management score with coach Scott Brooks in the final season of his contract. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 24)

The Pistons seem to be headed in the right direction, improving three spots after finishing 29th in April 2020. Since then, Detroit has brought in Troy Weaver as GM and overhauled its roster. Weaver's first draft yielded two apparent hits in Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart, with No. 7 pick Killian Hayes slower to contribute in the NBA. Jerami Grant, signed in free agency, also impressed in a larger offensive role. Still, the Pistons have a long way to go to contend in the East and don't have the benefit of substantial cap flexibility until Blake Griffin's dead money comes off the book in 2022. They also don't have any extra draft picks coming in, and they owe one with descending protection to the Houston Rockets from the deal to pick Stewart. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 29)

The days of consistently ranking in the top 15 of the FPR are over in Houston for now. Although the Rockets have a No. 2 ranking for the draft assets they have accumulated and could see their fortunes change with a top pick this July, their current roster is under construction. The positive is that Houston has Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. under contract for the next two seasons. The downside is the $92 million owed to John Wall and $38 million still left on the contract of Eric Gordon. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 15)

There is a light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the future in Orlando. Yes, the Magic are under a full-scale rebuild and starters Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac are coming off serious injuries. However, Orlando could have two lottery picks in this year's draft and acknowledged at the trade deadline something that front offices have a hard time doing: The roster is just not good enough. Instead of riding the treadmill of mediocrity, the roster was torn down, and a concerted effort is now being made on drafting and developing. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 21)

If the Timberwolves can keep up the play we've seen with both D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup this season, going 11-9, we could look foolish for having them near the bottom of the rankings. Minnesota's surge has also coincided with the arrival of coach Chris Finch and rapid development as a scorer from No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards. But this mix had better work: The Timberwolves are capped out through 2023 and will have to move salary to avoid paying the luxury tax next season. Minnesota's ranking also suffers because of the pick owed to the Warriors, which could prevent the Timberwolves from reaping the benefits of another year in the lottery. -- Pelton

(Previous rank: No. 26)

The Cavaliers hold down the last spot in the FPR for a second consecutive year. Despite the last-place ranking, all is not lost in Cleveland. The Cavs do have a borderline All-Star in Collin Sexton, Darius Garland has had a strong sophomore season and they acquired a starter in Jarrett Allen during the season. However, Allen is a restricted free agent this offseason, and Sexton is rookie-extension-eligible. Things could get costly for a team that has been buried in the standings. There is also the Kevin Love puzzle to figure out. The former All-Star still has $60 million left on his contract and does not fit the timeline of this roster. -- Marks

(Previous rank: No. 30)