Let's roll with this week's 10 things, including boundless magic from Nikola Jokic, rim attacking from Dougie McBuckets and a plea for some bullyball.
1. The variety of Nikola Jokic, and the Denver Nuggets not going anywhere yet
The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, and Will Barton, but they still have enough to be a problem: the MVP front-runner in Jokic, and an ascending star in Michael Porter Jr. seizing Murray's No. 2 option role -- and making a late run for Julius Randle's Most Improved Player throne.
They are 8-1 since Murray's injury, with a chance to overtake the LA Clippers for the No. 3 seed in the West in a massive head-to-head game on Saturday.
There has always been an unpredictability to Jokic's game, but before this season, it was mostly confined to his passing. You never knew where he was going when he surveyed his domain. He imagines passes no one sees -- passes that aren't really available to anyone but him.
But you knew he was usually passing. Not anymore. Jokic has bumped his scoring average by almost 6.5 points. He is the league's most efficient high-volume post-up threat, outranking Joel Embiid by a hair, per Second Spectrum.
Getting in better shape has helped Jokic absorb a heavier scoring burden. It has also made him faster. No one thinks of Jokic as particularly quick, but he has balletic footwork. This lighter-on-his-feet Jokic zooms through tight spaces:
That looks like Karl-Anthony Towns gliding through an open corridor! Jokic has also dusted suckers with his baseline spin.
Jokic has 39 dunks, more than his combined total from the past two seasons, per Second Spectrum.
He has an endless reservoir of awkward floaters and weirdo flip shots. Some look out of place in an NBA game -- until they go in.
All of this -- his increased appetite for points, the variety of shots -- has transformed Jokic into an unsolvable mystery. He is a threat to do anything, anytime, from anywhere.
Like, what even is this?
Watch Rudy Gobert. He is so convinced Jokic has kicked the ball out -- that Jokic had no other option -- he's looking away from the basket as Jokic grabs the rebound.
Another Jokic trick: He fools defenses into thinking he has given up on a specific pass -- before making that same pass once defenders exhale:
Jokic makes a big show of looking toward Porter -- almost urging him to catch up -- and then turning elsewhere.
The Nuggets will feel Murray's absence more in the postseason; Porter can score like gangbusters, but he's not ready to run a calculated two-man game with Jokic. They are short on shooting around Jokic and Porter right now. In the meantime, Jokic is a deserving MVP favorite.
2. The power of Jrue Holiday
In true Holiday fashion, he's having a fantastic season that has flown totally under the national radar as part of the NBA intelligentsia's collective case of "wake me in the playoffs" Milwaukee Bucks fatigue.
This is arguably Holiday's best season. He's shooting 51% overall and 39% on 3s -- career highs. He's second on the Bucks in assists, and playing his usual stout defense across three and sometimes four positions as the Bucks explore switching. (One small joy is when some big man with so-so post skills finds Holiday guarding him, and thinks he has a mismatch. After one dribble, he realizes he's in for a fight. After the second dribble fails to move Holiday, the big guy worries he has bitten off more than he can chew -- but is also too embarrassed to give up. The third dribble may not hit the ground before Holiday plucks it.)
Holiday has been Milwaukee's second-best player. On offense, he does a little of everything. He's a spot-up threat. He can work both ends of a pick-and-roll with Giannis Antetokounmpo, adding needed variety to Milwaukee's half-court offense. The Bucks average 1.16 points per possession on any trip featuring a Holiday pick-and-roll -- 38th among 202 guys who have run at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
He can engage in bully ball when the opportunity strikes -- or when the Bucks need something late in the clock:
That's Marcus Smart. Most big men can't dislodge Smart.
Holiday is not a regular post-up threat, but he manufactures some easy looks with early seals:
The conceit of Milwaukee's offseason -- beyond coaxing that signature from Antetokounmpo -- was trading depth for a top-line closing lineup. Milwaukee has walloped opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions with Holiday, Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton on the floor. Antetokounmpo and P.J. Tucker have played only 48 minutes together, but the Bucks are slowly leaning into ultra-switchy lineups featuring Antetokounmpo and Tucker as the only bigs -- with one role player (likely Donte DiVincenzo) as the final ingredient. (Bobby Portis -- deserving of some Sixth Man of the Year love -- could also flank Milwaukee's big three, and maybe Tucker too, in closing lineups.)
Regardless of seeding, the postseason will be a huge test of Milwaukee's trust factor -- players' trust in one another, and in some of the tweaks Mike Budenholzer has gradually introduced. Teams that used to game plan for Milwaukee's refusal to switch will now try to prey on the Bucks' inexperience doing so.
3. A quirk of timing in Zion Williamson's defense
Defending stretch power forwards is really hard for young NBA bigs. They are not used to navigating wide-open spaces far from the rim. The NBA arc is farther out, the shooters more accurate. It can take a half decade to master the steps.
The New Orleans Pelicans made Williamson's life easier with a midseason pivot from blitzing pick-and-rolls to a more conservative drop-back system -- one that requires less scrambling from help defenders. New Orleans ranks 27th in points allowed per possession, but they have been about league average over the past two months.
The current scheme still requires some help, and the Pelicans dabble in the ultra-aggressive look:
Williamson is late sliding inside to corral Ivica Zubac; he's still moving away from his man -- Marcus Morris -- when Paul George's pass hits Reggie Jackson's hands. Coaches preach rotating with the flight of the ball. Williamson is way behind.
Williamson improved at this over the first two months of the season, when New Orleans' base defense required it. He may be out of practice. Even so, he recovers faster than almost every human his size.
New Orleans has punted playing Williamson at center, so Williamson needs to get comfortable chasing stretchier bigs. (The Pelicans could play Williamson more at center with their full perimeter rotation healthy, but coach Stan Van Gundy has showed little inclination to do so.)
4. Miles Bridges, adding layers
Bridges' emergence as the league's most electrifying in-game dunker/soul-snatcher is overshadowing his growth into a seasoned all-around player -- improvements that have huge implications for the Charlotte Hornets as Bridges hurtles toward extension talks.
In January, I wrote about Bridges' leap as a passer -- in transition, out of post-ups, and after screening in the pick-and-roll. Optimists saw those dimes and envisioned him as Charlotte's Draymond Green -- a playmaking power forward who could switch across all five positions on defense.
There is only one Green. Bridges is a decent defender, Green an all-time great. Bridges is averaging 2.2 assists per game, and can be tentative off the dribble.
But Green could never shoot like Bridges is now. Bridges is a handful of made free throws from the 50/40/90 club. He is 32-of-71 on pull-up 3s after hitting 24-of-84 over his first two seasons. He's even launching going to his right -- his weak hand:
If this sustains, the threat of that shot will turn Bridges into a better driver and passer.
Bridges and P.J. Washington are similar players. Washington is bigger and longer -- a more natural small-ball center. Until this season, Washington was the superior outside shooter. Bridges plays with more hunger.
The Hornets don't have to choose; they have outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions with Bridges and Washington on the floor, and take on an ultra-modern look when they go center-less -- with Bridges and Washington as their only bigs.
5. The decisiveness of Doug McDermott, rim-attacking machine
Raise your hand if you envisioned McDermott generating a larger portion of field goal attempts at the basket than LeBron James. Well, it's happening. A fat 48% of McDermott's shots have come in the restricted area this season, per Cleaning The Glass. That is equivalent to peak James. (James is at 39% this season. He has topped 48% twice.)
That's apples to oranges -- really apples to broccoli. McDermott is a secondary option; James faces the wrath of entire defenses. But it's illustrative of how McDermott has evolved from roving sniper to more rounded scorer -- an adaptation born of necessity for ace spot-up types once opponents prioritize vaporizing their triples.
Shooting is a discrete skill, but it is also a meta-skill that empowers every skill beneath it. Defenders press McDermott. That turns a medium-speed driver into a threat; defenders are easy prey for blowbys when they are draped on you.
It took years of skittish trial and error, but McDermott internalized this reality and finally weaponized it. He accelerates into slicing attacks before he even catches the ball:
Decisiveness is a mentality with physical manifestations. Moving faster in your mind makes you faster on your feet.
It has turned McDermott into a better finisher. He's not stopping to think. He attacks at full speed, determined to get a shot off no matter what awaits. Any close shot is better than an uncertain drive or wayward pass; McDermott has turned the ball over on only 3.8% of drives, 15th lowest among 300 players with at least 50 drives, per Second Spectrum.
In his first year with the Indiana Pacers, McDermott observed how Bojan Bogdanovic leveraged the threat of his 3-pointer into rim points. "I felt like I could do it because I'm respected as a shooter too," McDermott said. He also credited T.J. McConnell with finding him for layups on a pet baseline out-of-bounds set.
McDermott is shooting 70% at the rim -- a career high. He has developed a knack for leaning, contested finishes with both hands. The injury-riddled Pacers would be in serious trouble without McDermott filling gaps at multiple positions. He's averaging a career-best 13 points and deserves Sixth Man of the Year consideration. (McConnell does too. Tim Hardaway Jr. stamped his own candidacy by dropping 42 points with Luka Doncic out in Detroit on Thursday night.)
6. Beef Stew, switchin'
Guess who ranks second among rookies in Player Efficiency Ranking (behind LaMelo Ball) and win shares (behind Jae'Sean Tate)?
It's Beef Freaking Stew, baby! Advanced numbers aren't airtight, but when they all shout the same thing, you should listen. You also have to look deeper to understand the value of a backup averaging 7.4 points per game -- 16th in this rookie class.
Do that (and watch the Detroit Pistons), and you know Isaiah Stewart is a legit candidate for first-team All-Rookie. His motor runs hot, always. He is a ferocious rebounder, with a fast second jump, and he'll knock your ass to the ground to send a message. (Downside: 4.6 fouls per 36 minutes.) His jumper is ahead of schedule. He's talkative on defense, with good feel.
One potential skill showing up more often now: the ability to switch onto point guards:
The Pistons have allowed a measly 0.756 points per chance when Stewart switches from screener to ball handler -- 12th lowest among 171 players who have switched at least 50 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
Stewart is a rotation big already, perhaps even a starter. Can he be more? He's only 6-foot-8 -- though with a giant wingspan -- and he's not a killer athlete. On offense, Stewart can finish possessions with jumpers and start new ones with offensive boards. There is a lot of room between those events, and the X-factor in Stewart's development is whether he can fill some of it with playmaking. Early returns are encouraging.
7. Bigs refusing to be bullies
Boo to all the big men pulling this meek stuff in the name of math:
The analytics might say that's a good pass, though I'm not sure. Daniel Theis catches with his back to the basket, defenders converging. There is some chance he bonks a layup. Denzel Valentine has hit at least 40% on corner 3s in three of four seasons.
I still suspect the numbers favor trying to finish, and I honestly don't even care. You are a center. The defender impeding you is a small point guard. Shove Devonte' Graham into the basket stanchion and dunk. Retired centers are ashamed of you. Also, dunks are more fun than mediocre reserves chucking the 25th mathematically sound corner 3 of the game.
Hail Tristan Thompson!
Thompson is a below-average finisher, and a poor free throw shooter. He sees Grant Williams unguarded in the left corner. Thompson might even know Williams has hit 43% on corner 3s this season.
He does not care. He is big, and Bruce Brown is small (even if he doesn't play like it), and the dictates of basketball require Thompson inflict pain. The basketball gods shall reward him.
8. When Deandre Ayton and the Suns don't give up
A glance at Ayton's numbers would suggest a disappointing third season, and if the barometer is Luka Doncic, Ayton will always be something of a disappointment. Ayton's scoring is down, and he still doesn't get to the line as much as a behemoth should.
But if you watch, you know he's better -- polished, under control, and a little mean when he needs to be. Ayton remains one of the league's critical swing players -- the only traditional big in the Phoenix Suns' rotation, and the wild card who can propel them toward the championship now and later.
Phoenix could face a money crunch soon. Devin Booker is locked into a well-deserved maximum contract. Chris Paul can enter free agency. Ayton and Mikal Bridges will be eligible for extensions this summer; most No. 1 overall picks start negotiations at "max or nothing," and rival executives expect Bridges' deal might approach $20 million per season.
Juggling four huge-money players means entering the luxury tax, and limited resources to fill the roster. Depending on the length of Paul's theoretical next contract, the Suns might face that dilemma in only one season -- 2022-23, the first year of potential new deals for Bridges and Ayton. But cobbling around three big contracts isn't easy, either.
Ayton is incrementally making his case. He has probably made greater strides on defense over the past two seasons than any other player. The addled rookie has become a solid rim-protector who can hang in space.
On offense, he and the Suns stick with it when Ayton has a good matchup in the post -- even after defenders take the first entry pass away.
In the past, Ayton may have given up there. He doesn't as often now, and the Phoenix guards don't let him. Phoenix has a ton of slick entry passers -- Paul especially -- capable of lobbing over fronts, and flashing for high-lows.
Ayton's post-up efficiency is middling, but you need every weapon against postseason defenses.
9. It's time to talk about Jakob Poeltl's free throw shooting -- again
I smiled Thursday night when Poeltl laid the ball in against the Miami Heat and screamed at the officials that he had been fouled.
Poeltl missed 25 of his first 35 free throws this season -- after dropping from 59% at the line to 53% to 47% over his three prior seasons. He was trending toward permanent yips and free throw phobia.
Behold: Poeltl is 24-of-31 (77%) in April, bringing him to 49% (54-of-110) for the season.
One month is a small sample, but it's encouraging. The Spurs cannot afford Poeltl playing in fear of getting fouled -- and becoming a regular victim of late-game Hack-a-Jaks. It puts a hard ceiling on his development on offense. Poeltl is a fine defender -- one of the league's best rim protectors -- but the Spurs need him to be a little more of a scoring threat. He is the only traditional big man in their young core.
Speaking of which: How the Spurs approach DeMar DeRozan's free agency will be among the offseason's most telling moments. DeRozan is wrapping maybe the best season of his career. Do people realize he's averaging 7.2 assists -- with an assist-to-turnover ratio approaching 4.0? Wild.
DeRozan has been a good passer for a while, but he has made another late-career step forward. He's making reads a beat earlier, and getting off the ball while the defense is still rotating toward him -- not only after they've swarmed. Those early-release passes kick-start swing-swing-swing sequences.
Only Damian Lillard has more points than DeRozan in the last three minutes of games when the score is within three points.
DeRozan is more floor- than ceiling-raiser, but that can be valuable for a youngish team wary of overtaxing other perimeter players. The Spurs have scored 113 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor, and an atrocious 104 when he sits -- right around the Oklahoma City Thunder's tanktastic league-worst offense. That floor sinks pretty low without DeRozan.
10. This is how you officiate take fouls
Bravo Josh Tiven, No. 58 in your playbooks and No. 1 in your hearts, even if this was an accidental delayed reaction:
That is precisely how more of these horrid take fouls should be officiated: Let the Chicago Bulls' 3-on-1 play out. If they score, keep the game moving. If they fail -- as they do here -- then blow the whistle on Graham hugging Thaddeus Young. These are not basketball plays, and officials should not reward them by stopping the action if the offensive team has momentum in transition -- especially if the foul occurs after the pass. (Some referees do let play continue. Referees also have leeway to reward and and-1 in the rare situation in which the defensive team fouls the passer -- Young in the clip above -- after he releases the ball, and the offensive team scores right away.)
The NBA might counter that this is an unusually physical wrap-up, and that they should penalize any play that risks injury or escalation toward confrontation. Fine. Most wraps-ups are gentle anyway. There is less than one take foul per game, according to league sources, and so the league may ask why critics make a big deal of it
Because these fouls are terrible. You know what's better than 0.5 or 0.8 or whatever per game? Zero -- and one extra fast break. The NBA already levies an extra penalty on these hugs in the G League, so they know.