Let's roll with this week's 10 things, including Paul George's slithering attacks, the Tom Thibodeau effect and the most boring moment of the 2021 season.
1. The Paul George vengeance tour (regular season) is happening. Plus: Rajon Rondo!
Watch him enough, and you learn small ways to distinguish solid Paul George from peak George -- the guy who went toe-to-toe with LeBron on the league's biggest stages early in his career, and the version the LA Clippers will need to get where they want to go. The latter is marked by an extra dose of confidence that manifests as on-ball aggression and general opportunistic verve.
Here he is blitzing the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday without teammate Kawhi Leonard:
The drive is nice, but what really reveals peak George is that little fake toward Nicolas Batum in the corner -- as if George might approach for a hand-off. George's man -- Justin Holiday -- bites, and George spins away. Holiday has to sprint out, and George uses Holiday's momentum against him. That is a fully engaged star conjuring an advantage from thin air, and capitalizing.
Drives are the other indicator. George is a very good midrange shooter, but he can be prone to passivity and over-settling -- including in some of his worst playoff games. Every star has bad shooting games, but George has had too many really bad clunkers -- games in which he bricks jumpers and doesn't compensate with free throws.
That's why these slithering attacks are encouraging:
George is averaging 18.3 drives per 100 possessions -- by far a career high, per Second Spectrum. (His previous season high: 14.1). That hasn't resulted in more free throws or shots at the rim, but it's healthy for an LA offense that is almost entirely dependent on jump-shooting.
Also healthy so far: Rajon Rondo! I was a relative optimist about how the Lou Williams-Rondo swap might work out for the Clips, but I did not expect LA would be plus-71 over Rondo's first 103 minutes. Sometimes you don't realize how many available passes aren't being made until you acquire someone who can make them.
Rondo is faster than Williams from Point A to Point B. He takes whatever driving angle the defense gives him, and makes something from it.
The Clips are pushing the pace with Rondo on the floor, and perhaps no contender is in more need of some extra transition oomph.
2. The Knicks' defense sustained
On paper, the Knicks' defense has hints of fool's gold. The Knicks give up tons of 3s and shots at the rim. If you estimated based only on shot location, the Knicks would rank 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage, per Cleaning The Glass. They foul a lot. They are average at rebounding and forcing turnovers. Mitchell Robinson, their most fearsome rim protector, has missed half the season.
I predicted the Knicks would slide from the top three in points allowed per possession and finish somewhere closer to No. 10.
With 16 games left, they still rank third. Only the Utah Jazz have allowed a lower effective field goal percentage. Head coach Tom Thibodeau can apparently defeat math and geometry by sheer force of will (and by shouting).
Even if the Knicks are punching a little above their weight, it appears to be only a little -- and they are doing it with effort in the sweet spot between precise and maniacal. That is most visible along the perimeter, where New York's (mostly) sturdy wings are flying around with hyper-alert synchronicity.
Watch RJ Barrett and Julius Randle on the right wing:
Barrett clogs the middle and then runs Svi Mykhailiuk off the arc. Randle reads that, and slides off Saddiq Bey in the corner to wall off Mykhailiuk's drive. Without missing a beat, Barrett toggles to Bey.
The Knicks make this kind of jump-style switching and rotating look routine. Here's Barrett and Randle pulling the same trick after helping corral a pick-and-roll:
Randle ventures further into the paint -- his job as low man. Barrett splits the difference between two Oklahoma City Thunder shooters. Both rotate back with the flight of the ball. Barrett has received a ton of (justified) adulation for his improved 3-point stroke, but he is building out every part of his game -- including rugged, attentive defense.
New York opponents have hit a league-low 33% from deep, and that's not all luck. The Knicks are dissuading some easier looks. They close out with a leaping, reaching ferocity that is almost alarming.
Even the bevy of shots New York allows in the restricted area is at least somewhat by design; the Knicks trust Robinson, Nerlens Noel, and Taj Gibson -- plus well-timed help -- to disrupt those attempts. New York opponents have hit only 60% in the restricted area -- second lowest in the league.
The first step in any franchise reboot -- in any dormant big-market team's attempt to appeal to stars -- is to reach some level of base competitiveness. The fastest way to do that is to play defense -- every damned night.
3. Two guards going opposite directions in New Orleans
Eric Bledsoe has done his best on offense for a team that doesn't need his head-down driving skill set -- and in fact needs a point guard with almost the opposite of Bledsoe's skill set. He's shooting 35% from deep, pushing in transition, and playing hard-nosed defense.
On some nights, he makes due in tight confines with floaters and leaners. And for all the hand-wringing over the spacing issues of the New Orleans Pelicans' starting five, that group has poured in 118 points per 100 possessions -- a tick above the league's best overall offenses.
But Bledsoe just doesn't seem useful. He's an unguarded afterthought in the half court. Bledsoe is finishing 18% of New Orleans' possessions, his lowest figure in a decade. Big picture, that's fine; the Pelicans may not need a high-usage point guard taking shots from Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and even Lonzo Ball. They need another player type in that spot, but it's not Bledsoe. (Ironically, George Hill -- whom New Orleans also acquired in the Jrue Holiday deal, but then shipped to Oklahoma City for Steven Adams -- is the right general prototype.)
Bledsoe is hitting just 47% on 2s and earning three free throws per 36 minutes -- both around career lows.
On the flippity flip, Kira Lewis Jr. is getting interesting. He's a spunky defender with a knack for skittering around picks, and challenging shots from behind. He has good footwork, and relishes getting into players:
He's not ready for major solo point guard duty, but few rookies are. The Pelicans have walloped opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions with the Lewis-Nickeil Alexander-Walker duo sharing the controls; Alexander-Walker was surging before a recent injury.
Lewis has looked comfortable attacking off the catch, and making snap reads -- the situations he will find himself in playing off New Orleans' stars:
Lewis shooting 34% from deep on decent volume is a good early sign. The Pelicans have a negative point differential overall, but they're plus-3.2 points per 100 possessions with Lewis on the floor -- evidence he's at least holding his own already.
4. The swerviness of Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdan Bogdanovic since March 17: 19 points and almost four assists per game on 51% shooting, including 49% on 7.3 triples. Bogdanovic and Clint Capela have helped keep the Atlanta Hawks winning amid a ton of injuries -- including Trae Young missing three recent games.
With at least two of Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins on the floor, Atlanta has a road map to competent offense when Young rests -- minutes in which its offense has collapsed into nothingness for most of Young's career. The Hawks have outscored opponents by seven points per 100 possessions when Bogdanovic plays without Young, per NBA.com. Their offense in those minutes ranks around league average -- progress!
Bogdanovic doubles his pick-and-roll frequency when Young rests, per Second Spectrum. With Young, Bogdanovic transforms into one of the league's shiftiest off-ball movers. He has hit 43% on catch-and-shoot 3s; he's a menace popping off screens. Defenses know that. Bogdanovic knows they know, and plays off that fear with meandering cuts to unexpected places:
He's like a phantom gliding between trees. Once Patty Mills blocks Bogdanovic from the Gallinari-Capela double-screen, Bogdanovic improvises until he finds open space. He has hit 67% at the rim and 53% on long 2s -- both career bests, per Cleaning The Glass.
5. The most boring moment in the NBA
Let me preface this by saying Team USA's Mason Plumlee has been fine in Detroit. He's averaging almost a double-double, shooting 60%, and dishing 3.5 dimes per game. He is a Perfectly Serviceable Starting Center. Plumlee is more committed to reverse dunking than I am to almost anything in life.
With that said, I submit this as the NBA's Most Boring Moment of 2021:
We should nickname Plumlee's jab step "the white flag," since its appearance signals Detroit has given up trying anything interesting. It is a basketball shoulder shrug, and we are seeing more of it because of Detroit's limited roster -- especially when Jerami Grant sits.
Plumlee's post-up and isolation volume is up, and the Pistons score at a middling (or worse) rate out of those actions, per Second Spectrum. He's taking more midrangers, but hitting only 35% of them.
Plumlee is solid. It's just that I would rather watch almost any available alternative to Plumlee going one-on-one. I'd rather watch Sekou Doumbouya try a skyhook. I'd rather watch Bey hoist a lefty triple. I'd rather watch Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart play an all-night game of Risk.
6. Chris Paul, once and forever king of the 1-on-2 steal
The Point God, Chris Paul, is fifth all-time in steals, and still swiping 1.5 per game. At that pace (and with good health), he could leap Gary Payton and Michael Jordan late in the 2022-23 season. Catching Jason Kidd at No. 2 is a taller order. John Stockton at the top is unreachable barring, well, Stockton-level longevity.
But I wish we could track steals recorded as last line of defense on fast breaks, because I'm not sure I've seen anyone better than Paul. (Draymond Green is close among current players.)
That's rude. Paul is so smart, thinking so far ahead of most players, that you almost feel he has the advantage when he plainly does not. If you froze that clip when Jake Layman approaches the 3-point arc -- with Jarred Vanderbilt to his right and Paul between them -- and asked me to bet on the outcome, I may well have wagered on Paul deflecting the ball away.
Once Layman passes to poor, overmatched Vanderbilt, it's over. Paul pivots toward Vanderbilt, but it's a ruse. He's fooling Vanderbilt into passing back to Layman. Paul plants on his left foot, and lunges toward Layman with his right arm outstretched. Snatch.
Paul remains one of the league's best defenders at his position. The Suns hide him more on non-threatening wings -- as the Thunder did last season -- but Paul remains impactful as a lurking, clawing help defender.
Devin Booker has probably surpassed Paul as Phoenix's MVP -- even if the advanced stats say otherwise -- but Paul has changed everything about the Suns. Don't sleep on these guys.
7. Can the Pacers go under sometimes?
The Pacers go under the fewest ball screens of any team, per Second Spectrum. That is not, by definition, bad. Indiana ranks 13th in points allowed per possession, decent considering injuries and lineup turmoil.
There is a school of thought that ducking screens gives good ball handlers too much space -- too clear a view of passing lanes. There is also the notion that getting into guys at the point of attack sets the tone for the rest of the defense: If you're physical there, you'll be physical everywhere.
The Pacers under Nate Bjorkgren have clearly decided they are fine with ball handlers getting downhill and challenging Myles Turner at the basket; no team allows more shots within the restricted area or holds opponents to a lower field goal percentage on such shots, per Cleaning The Glass.
A side effect appears to be that the rest of Indy's defenders can stay home on shooters; only the league-leading Jazz allow fewer 3-point attempts.
Ducking picks is also harder than it sounds against turbocharged ball handlers. Those guys can outrace defenders to the other side of the pick -- and into open space. Teams that know defenses will go under have counters ready: re-screens, picks set lower on the floor, lots more.
But there is room for nuance and game-to-game adjustments, even in the muck of this compressed season, and Indiana might try giving some non-shooters a cushion. Like, why gift Ben Simmons this alleyway by directing him away from Joel Embiid's screen?
That is a good base scheme against most ball handlers. But Simmons is not "most" ball-handlers, and scooting under picks for him can stall Philly's offense. Ditto for Ja Morant, who gashed Indiana's go-over scheme this week. (The Pacers won anyway, 132-125). All those shots at the rim also yield a ton of offensive rebounds; Indy ranks dead last in defensive rebounding rate.
I'll be curious to see what Bjorkgren does in the postseason -- if the Pacers get there and face an opponent who merits going under. Lots of coaches are loath to scrap core principles in the regular season, though Bjorkgren has busted out the box-and-one and even the triangle-and-two.
8. Boy was I wrong about Markieff Morris
I was skeptical Markieff Morris had much to give the Lakers last season. Injuries had slowed him. His jumper came and went.
Wrong. Morris shot 42% from deep in the playoffs. He started Games 4 and 5 of the conference semifinals against the Houston Rockets as the Lakers downsized -- and scored 25 combined points on 10-of-17 shooting as they vaporized damn near the entire Rockets franchise.
He stuck in the rotation, and even spent spot time defending Jimmy Butler in the Finals -- a role he (briefly) reprised against Miami last week.
Morris has helped the Lakers hang near enough to .500 without both Anthony Davis and LeBron James -- they're 6-7 since James' ankle injury -- that the Lake Show should manage to avoid the play-in tournament. They have a good shot at sticking in the No. 4 or No. 5 slots, and drawing the Denver Nuggets without Jamal Murray.
Since James' injury, Morris is averaging 12 points -- fourth on the Lakers -- on 49% shooting, including 39% from deep. He can manufacture a bucket in the post against mismatches, though that is not something you should overdo.
Morris has looked frisky on defense, both at the rim ...
... and hanging with some slick ball handlers on switches:
Let's not exaggerate. The Lakers are minus-4.9 per 100 possessions with Morris on the floor in this stretch without James and Davis. But with their margin for error so low, the Lakers need every little thing -- every shot, every rebound, every sound defensive possession -- their role players can give.
9. Creative end-of-game clock usage
I loved what the Pacers did when they got the ball back up 3 with 30.1 seconds left in Miami last month. That six-second differential between shot clock and game clock is in a tricky range for coaches on the trailing team. Most coaches seem to prefer playing straight-up defense, with the tipping point toward fouling coming when the differential shrinks to four or five seconds. Even then, some coaches holding a timeout may opt against fouling. (I would probably lean toward fouling earlier, but I suspect the analytics on this are pretty murky.)
When the Pacers realized Miami was not fouling, Indiana ran the clock almost all the way down; Caris LeVert released his triple with 1.8 seconds left:
More teams should do this. So many teams in Indiana's situation rush for no reason, jack something up with a half-dozen ticks left, and gift the opponent plenty of time. Moonball a shot at the buzzer, and one weird bounce carom -- one tip of the rebound -- ends the game.
The Heat got the best-case scenario: a clean rebound falling to their superstar. (They had a timeout, but Erik Spoelstra chose not to use it.) Even then, all Jimmy Butler had time for was a leaning contested triple. The Pacers took any potential offensive rebound off the board. Even a single pass from Butler was risky. The Pacers, up three, also had the option of hacking Butler if they felt safe doing so.
Down one against the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night, the Portland Trail Blazers fouled Marcus Smart with 3.5 seconds left. The Blazers had no timeouts. Smart missed the first free throw. The Blazers' broadcast crew agreed Smart should try to make the second. He missed on purpose. The decision seemed to catch Boston's broadcasters by surprise. Portland point guard Damian Lillard snatched the rebound under the rim, two Boston defenders surrounding him. He could only manage an 84-foot heave.
This was an absolute no-brainer with Portland having no timeouts. A lot of coaches have players miss on purpose with one or two seconds remaining, but 3.5 feels like a lot for some reason. It's not, and Celtics coach Brad Stevens proved the point Tuesday.
10. Color-coordinated coaching cards
I wish I knew who to credit for setting this trend, but any coach who favors a cheat sheet during games should -- nay, must! -- use paper in one team color other than white. Plain white paper is boring.
I *think* I first noticed this when Doc Rivers coached the Boston Celtics, and kept notes on a green sheet. (Rivers told me he saw this first with Pat Riley.) Rivers then shifted to red with the Clippers, and now blue that matches the Sixers. Stevens has carried over those green cards. But the best for my money is Monty Williams strutting around the Phoenix Suns sidelines with orange cards.
Is this stupid? Yes. Does my noticing it indicate deeper issues? Absolutely. But life is about small joys, and this is one for me.