With the NBA playoffs just over a month away, now is a good time to take a look at where the key races stand and which teams are most likely to have to play their ways into the postseason brackets.
Remember, in this new play-in era, the postseason hunt in each conference is actually split into two: the race for a top-six spot -- guaranteeing entry into the playoff rounds -- and the race for seeds Nos. 7 through 10, which means one or two play-in wins will be necessary to earn the final No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
Here are the teams in each conference with the most reasons for optimism and pessimism in the key seeding groups, plus which franchises will be fighting for every single win down the stretch.
The Eastern Conference
Let's start in the East, where three teams have separated themselves from the pack.
The Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks are on top, but things are beginning to break for Philly. The 76ers are tied with the Nets for No. 1 and play them in a huge game on ESPN on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET). The Nets are short-handed and coming off a back-to-back. If Philly wins it secures the tiebreaker over Brooklyn. That's huge for a couple of reasons:
The Sixers have the best home record in the East, so securing home-court advantage by grabbing the No. 1 seed would only help their Finals chances. Earning the top spot could force an absolutely brutal Nets-Bucks matchup in the second round, while the Sixers would likely face a much easier foe.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects that Philly has the easiest remaining schedule among these three teams. The No. 1 seed in theirs to lose.
Things get messy after those top three teams, which will only add excitement to the final weeks of games. Only four games separate teams Nos. 4 through 9. Let's take a look at the logjam.
Teams with reasons for optimism
• The Atlanta Hawks have been a different team under new head coach Nate McMillan, winning 15 of their past 20 games while posting the best offensive numbers in the conference. They've climbed up to No. 4, and BPI gives them an 84.6% chance to make the playoffs.
The metamorphosis has been particularly evident late in games. Under Lloyd Pierce, the Hawks posted the worst fourth-quarter net rating in the NBA, but since MacMillan took over Atlanta's mark reached plus-16.2, easily No. 1 overall. If the Hawks can keep it up, they will avoid the play-in madness, end up with a decent seed and perhaps even host a first-round series. What a turnaround.
• The Boston Celtics are going to be a factor here, too. They have won five of their past six, including big wins over the Charlotte Hornets and Denver Nuggets. Their net rating has stabilized, and they have the easiest remaining schedule among the six squads fighting for these last three guaranteed spots.
Fighting for every single win
• If the Hawks and Celtics secure the No. 4 and No. 5 spots, that leaves the Hornets and the Miami Heat as the most likely teams fighting for a now-critical No. 6 seed that avoids the play-in bracket. The Hornets enjoy an easier remaining schedule, but the Heat have more talent and more experience in the kinds of big games that will define the stretch run. Those games start now. Charlotte owns the tiebreaker here, but these two teams hook up for what could be a huge game on May 2.
Teams with reason for pessimism
• The Knicks have been playing pretty well, but the bad news is they have the toughest schedule remaining of the six logjam teams. They are still facing a brutal six-game Western Conference road trip in early May, including games versus the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers. They can still make it above the play-in fray, but they'll need to upset a few good teams to secure their spot. Every game matters for them from here on out.
• The Bulls are just 4-11 over their past 15 and are clinging to the No. 10 seed. They have a relatively tough schedule remaining, and if they don't improve, there is a real chance they won't even make the play-in. Watch out for a push from the Toronto Raptors or Washington Wizards.
Western Conference
The top of the West looks pretty stable as the Utah Jazz hold down the No. 1 seed with the NBA's best record. The Phoenix Suns are just 1.5 games back but have a much tougher schedule, so if the Jazz can just win the games they're supposed to, they should lock up home-court advantage.
After the Jazz, three teams -- the Suns, Clippers and Nuggets -- look like locks to avoid the play-in. (Even with Jamal Murray's injury, Denver is unlikely to tumble down too far down the standings.) Then it gets interesting.
The important Lakers watch
The Lakers are undermanned and toiling to stay in one of the top six slots. But the league loves to backload LeBron James' schedule every season with big primetime matchups versus other top teams. With James and Anthony Davis out, that means the banged-up Lakers are clinging to their top-six seed while facing elite competition the rest of the way.
The elite defense is keeping them afloat, but the Lakers have the toughest schedule remaining of the three squads vying for those coveted Nos. 5 and 6 positions. While the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks are currently behind the Lakers, both teams are healthier and playing better basketball than the purple and gold.
This one is going to come down to the wire, and a lot of it depends on when James and Davis return from their injuries. BPI still has the Lakers as heavy favorites to escape the play-in compared to Dallas and Portland, but every victory is critical for these teams now.
Teams with reasons for optimism
• The Mavs have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the West, and they still have a decent chance of climbing out of the play-in slots. Luka Doncic and company have a big matchup Wednesday against the Memphis Grizzlies (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN). These are the exact types of games they need to win to sneak past the Lakers.
• The New Orleans Pelicans! Believe it or not, there are two reasons why I think New Orleans will still land in the play-in. The first one is Zion Williamson, who is playing his best basketball right now, dominating the paint and fueling one of the most exciting offenses in the NBA. The second is the fact that both the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors are flailing. There is a good chance that one or both of those teams fall out of the top 10 seeds.
• Even though the Grizzlies look bound for the play-in, they should be optimistic. Why? They look like one of the top eight teams in the West. Anything can happen in a win-or-go-home play-in scenario, but Memphis should enter the tournament as a favorite.
Fighting for every single win
• We know what Damian Lillard can do in big moments, but those big moments start now with a tough remaining schedule. Thursday's game versus the Lakers is a huge test. If the Blazers win, they will get the tiebreaker over L.A. and gain a game on them in the process. If they don't, that makes them more likely a play-in squad.
Teams with reason for pessimism
• The Warriors used to be light years ahead of everyone else, but these days, they are just plodding along toward the back of the playoff pack. Even though Stephen Curry has been marvelous, the Warriors are 6-9 in their past 15 games, their offense ranks 26th overall and their defense ranks 20th. While it's true that no team would want to see Curry and Draymond Green in a play-in situation, there's real work to do to get there.
• The Spurs have one major reason to be worried: They have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. They have tough opponents, a plethora of road games and few off days. It's brutal.