Let's roll with this week's 10 things, including the Denver Nuggets reaching legitimate contender status, a Utah Jazz dilemma and one rookie flashing a little bravado.
1. The simple devastation of the Jamal Murray-Nikola Jokic two-man game
The Nuggets have obliterated everything in their path since acquiring Aaron Gordon, whose seamless fit I discussed on the Lowe Post podcast this week. The Nuggets are a legit contender. They could also lose in the first round -- almost anyone in the West could -- but they have graduated from "puncher's chance" to "actual chance."
Gordon has changed their team, but the main reason for Denver's ascent is their two best players reaching new levels -- both individually, and in amplifying each other.
Jokic is the MVP frontrunner. Murray has quietly (outside Denver, anyway) established himself as a reliable All-Star-level player after a blah first 15 games. He's averaging a career-high 21 points on 48% shooting -- and 41% from deep. The gap between playoff Murray and regular-season Murray is shrinking.
Denver's new starting five is plus-61 in 90 minutes. Egads. The Nuggets are averaging 117 points per 100 possessions -- a hair behind the top-ranked Brooklyn Nets offense, and a mark that would (if not for Brooklyn) rank No. 1 in history. That leaps to an unreal 123 points per 100 possessions with Murray and Jokic on the floor.
They have an answer for every scheme. Drop back, and Jokic rains pick-and-pop fire. Blitz Murray, and Jokic flares for 3s or gathers slip passes for 4-on-3s. Switch, and they pick the tastiest mismatch: Murray roasting a big, or Jokic mashing someone on the block.
The Nuggets average almost 1.2 points per possession when Jokic shoots from the post or passes to a teammate who launches -- ninth among 106 players with at least 25 post touches, per Second Spectrum.
Neither guy blows you away with straight-line speed or volcanic explosiveness. They have dozens of subtle tricks to open small windows of space. They prod those windows, exploring the empty space with moves and countermoves until the windows expand to the point that the defense is broken.
Jokic flips his pick to the sideline, catapulting Murray into open space. Murray bounces it back to Jokic once he draws Jonas Valanciunas deep enough to provide Jokic one of those windows. They build upon that advantage until gifting Will Barton -- Denver's X-factor now -- an easy 3.
Murray is a master of mini-moves designed to crack those small windows -- hesitation dribbles, shoulder feints, that one extra bounce into the paint that bends the defense.
He senses when to play against expectations:
Murray is a daring entry passer capable of finding Jokic from any angle.
These two could be the next generation's John Stockton and Karl Malone -- no-frills stars who empower each other, and stick together in a non-glamour market.
2. Utah's Bojan Bogdanovic dilemma
Bogdanovic is something of a barometer for the Jazz. He is the weakest defensive link in their starting five. Some postseason opponents are well-equipped to hunt him. Others offer safe havens.
Bogdanovic is also a deadly catch-and-shoot gunner who rounds out Utah's starters with size and craft -- plus an ability to exploit mismatches that will be critical when postseason defenses switch more to stall Utah's pick-and-roll blender.
A lot of opponents stash power forwards on Royce O'Neale, leaving wings to defend Bogdanovic. When the Jazz swing those matchups in their favor, they are really hard to beat.
Bogdanovic was the league's most efficient post-up threat last season, per Second Spectrum, and Utah has scored 1.1 points per possession this season when he shoots from the post or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 22nd among 106 players with at least 25 post touches.
He has proved a more willing inside-out distributor; Bogdanovic is passing and recording assists from the post at career-high rates, per Second Spectrum:
Utah sometimes has O'Neale and Bogdanovic screen for each other, pouncing when opponents switch slower bigs onto Bogdanovic:
Bogdanovic has played almost two-thirds of his minutes with Rudy Gobert, and the Jazz have allowed only 104.6 points per 100 possessions in those minutes -- below the Lakers' league-best mark, per NBA.com.
Against ultra-big teams -- i.e., the Lakers in some alignments -- the Jazz can pair Gobert and Derrick Favors for spot minutes. They are also sitting on one lineup -- Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, O'Neale, Gobert -- that may represent their best two-way balance.
3. Miami, still searching
The Miami Heat have been searching for two-way balance since Jae Crowder left for the Phoenix Suns. Maurice Harkless, one potential Crowder replacement, never fit #HeatCulture. Kelly Olynyk was too slow. Trevor Ariza, their current starter, is almost 36 and didn't play in an NBA game for a year before joining Miami; he's 11-of-42 on 3s.
Miami's revamped starting five (Victor Oladipo, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Ariza, and Bam Adebayo) has managed 109 points per 100 possessions -- below league average. (They have been excellent on defense.) Miami last season mostly avoided lineups featuring three shaky shooters, aside from some (very good) closing stints with Butler, Adebayo, and Andre Iguodala.
On some nights, this lineup might feature four shaky shooters. Defenses aren't guarding Ariza. Oladipo has hit 32% from deep over the past two seasons. Butler is an unthinkable 16-of-72 this season, which means he'll probably shoot 60% on 3s in the playoffs.
Robinson is a one-man floor-spacer, and the Heat shift him around in ways that make help assignments difficult -- including positioning Robinson as the only shooter on the weak side of a pick-and-roll. But on lots of two-man actions, the paint is over-cluttered:
Collective smarts can make up for a scrunched floor. This lineup is overflowing with high-IQ cutters and passers, and dangerous midrange shooters who can navigate tight confines. But it's hard to execute with such five-man precision over and over against great defenses.
I'm not sure what Miami should do -- if anything. The Heat need Oladipo's north-south quickness, provided he can return healthy after an apparent leg injury Thursday night. Starting Goran Dragic has been Miami's failsafe. He adds even more north-south oomph, and has the best pick-and-roll chemistry with Adebayo. Swapping him for Ariza would make the Heat really small, transforming Butler into a power forward. Butler and Iguodala slide there a fair amount, but Erik Spoelstra is cautious overburdening them. Dragic also has not looked quite the same over the past two months.
Miami has used Nemanja Bjelica mostly as Adebayo's backup rather than pairing them -- likely fearing that starting Bjelica would compromise their defense. (Ditto for flipping Tyler Herro in for Ariza or Oladipo.)
Miami leaned into an ultra-aggressive blitzing defense over the past two months. You almost expect to see Chris Bosh trapping pick-and-rolls. The Heat's execution has been solid, but they walk a tightrope against great shooting teams.
Never doubt the Heat's ability to coalesce. They have time, just not much.
4. Zach LaVine, telegrapher
LaVine was a deserving All-Star, but he's still too turnover prone for undisputed alpha playmaking work.
LaVine is miles better than he was as the kid the Minnesota Timberwolves shoehorned into point guard duty. He knows the fundamental reads, and (sometimes) sees and executes them earlier than he used to.
But he still telegraphs passes, and tries a lot that just aren't there.
That's a nice idea -- feeding Nikola Vucevic against a switch -- but Dejounte Murray sniffs it out.
Ingles is there, waiting. He seems almost insulted LaVine throws the pass. LaVine's only chance is to loft it high, but he tries threading an impossible needle.
Vucevic is a good playmaking center; the Bulls can run lots of offense through him, freeing LaVine to work more as an off-ball cutter.
Meanwhile, Thaddeus "Thadgic" Young has been Chicago's best passer all season. The Young-Vucevic frontcourt should absorb enough playmaking for LaVine to find his ideal water level between finishing and creating.
The Bulls are minus-1 in 87 minutes with LaVine, Vucevic, and Young on the floor. How well they can defend is an open question, though their key reserve guards getting healthy should vaporize those disastrous minutes with Lauri Markkanen at small forward.
One thing to watch: Vucevic is rolling to the rim slightly more often in Chicago now that he has a ball handler in LaVine who regularly draws two defenders, and he's a good passer on the move. Vucevic doesn't have as much space with Young lurking around the paint, but the floor is wide open with Markkanen at power forward.
5. Tobias Harris, in full
Anyone glancing at Harris' stats would assume he is basically the same guy, and happens to be draining more long 2s -- a blip that will subside. Harris is probably taking too many midrangers and not enough 3s, and it might be hard for him to continue hitting half those midrangers.
But watch, and you know he's different -- more poised, in command. He hasn't made a giant leap in any one skill. He has inched forward in everything, the sort of gradual all-around improvement that is almost imperceptible.
Harris is having his most efficient season in basically every play type, per Second Spectrum: post-ups, pick-and-rolls, isolations. He has not changed much about how he operates in any of those plays. He's just more polished. He doesn't rush, or veer out of control, but he acts with decisiveness when required.
He's pulling catch-and-shoot 3s in semi-transition without hesitation:
My favorite Harris thing: when he gets the ball on the wing in transition, discovers a smaller player on him, and bulldozes for a layup. He is doing that more this season.
Philly has scored 1.34 points per possession on any trip featuring a Harris post-up -- fifth among 105 players who have recorded at least 25 post touches, per Second Spectrum. He has coughed the ball up on only 3.6% of those post-ups -- tenth lowest in that same group.
Harris is 23-of-41 in the last five minutes of close games, emerging as the second tentpole of Philadelphia's crunch-time offense -- the outside counterpart to Joel Embiid's interior bashing.
Harris has never been a plus passer, but he's getting off the ball a beat earlier and making snappier reads. Doc Rivers has installed a snazzy set that gets Harris the ball on the move in the middle of the floor, shooters in both corners:
(The Suns run a version of this centered around Devin Booker and Dario Saric.)
Harris was Philly's best player during Embiid's recent absence. The Sixers are 8-4 in their past 12 games without Embiid after going 1-5 in such games earlier in the season. They enjoyed an easy-ish schedule over the past month, but Harris deserves huge credit for keeping Philly afloat -- especially given Ben Simmons' recent slump on offense.
6. Time Lord, jolting Boston into action
Brad Stevens loves running offense through an Al Horford-style hand-off fulcrum, but he hasn't had great veteran big man candidates since Horford's departure.
Daniel Theis was the most reliable facsimile, but Robert Williams is a better passer -- and much more dangerous slicing inside for dunks. Part of being a good passer is posing a threat to do other things -- to make the defense worry you might do something other than pass.
With Theis in Chicago and Williams starting, Stevens is entrusting Williams with the Horford role. Williams is dishing 3.5 dimes per game as a starter. Boston's assist rate leaps from worrisome to acceptable with Williams on the floor. He gets teammates moving, and jolts the Celtics out of isolation mode. Williams might unlock a new sub-system of offense for Boston -- the junior varsity version of Miami's Adebayo-centric offense-within-the-offense:
Those split-style actions are even more effective when they involve Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. (Boston's new starting five is plus-12 in 66 minutes. Williams can still be erratic on defense and on the glass -- Embiid tortured him Tuesday -- but Boston has allowed only 105 points per 100 possessions when he shares the floor with the team's two star wings.)
With Evan Fournier aboard, Stevens can keep at least two of Fournier, Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, and Kemba Walker on the floor at all times -- huge relief for a team that has been too dependent on one-dimensional stand-still types to fill minutes.
Williams also can manipulate small gaps in the defense:
His pass fake gets Olynyk backpedaling -- exposing a corridor to the rim. Williams saunters through, keeping his head up and his options open. That doesn't sound like much, but a lot of young bigs don't have the handle and feel to pull it off.
7. Deni Avdija, getting over the jitters
For the first two months of the season, you could watch an entire week of Washington Wizards action and not notice Avdija.
But imagine being 19, in a new country, playing (starting!) against the world's best players -- and alongside two ball-dominant superstars in Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. You might be intimidated.
Since his promotion back into the starting five two weeks ago, Avdija has shed that meekness and flashed a little bravado -- and even some nasty. Avdija has attempted 10 or more shots in each of Washington's past five games after reaching that mark only three times before that.
He's launching 3s when appropriate, and attacking scrambled defenses off catches and handoffs from (the kind of on fire!) Robin Lopez. He's a decent passer on the move. Avdija hasn't recorded many assists, but he dots some of Washington's best possessions with little connecting plays -- extra passes, impromptu screens, well-timed cuts.
Avdija is a feisty rebounder. He seems to relish physicality, and outworking brutes who might underestimate his competitiveness.
There is a long way between here and Avdija being a jack-of-all-trades complementary starter on a good team, but step one is believing he belongs -- and playing like it.
Meanwhile, Rui Hachimura is averaging 18 points on 52% shooting over his past 13 games. His development is on course. Hachimura could (could!) turn into an All-Star someday -- not a perennial one, but perhaps a fringe candidate who makes one or two teams in the East. (Mike Conley just felt a shudder down his spine.)
8. The Mavs' other bench guard
Jalen Brunson has received adulation as the Dallas Mavericks' most consistent reserve, but don't overlook Tim Hardaway Jr. just because he makes 11 times Brunson's salary. Hardaway has been really good. He's averaging 16.5 points per game, third on the Mavs, and shooting 39% on more than nine triples per 36 minutes.
He's also moving the ball in the flow. When Luka Doncic rests, the Mavs trigger possessions with Hardaway flying off two foul line screens and catching on the move.
Dallas has been bad when Doncic sits, but it's hard to read much into those numbers given how the coronavirus and associated protocols decimated their roster. The Mavs are about even in 264 minutes when both Hardaway and Kristaps Porzingis play without Doncic.
Before the season, I thought the five-man group of Doncic, Hardaway, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Porzingis represented Dallas' best hope of two-way excellence. That lineup is somehow minus-38 in 66 minutes. Richardson has been wildly uneven on offense. Finney-Smith doesn't bring much off-the-bounce dynamism, though he's up to 37% from deep.
Brunson and Hardaway give Rick Carlisle flexibility tilting lineups a little toward offense -- with or without Doncic on the floor. The Mavs' second-most-used lineup has Porzingis with Hardaway, Brunson, Finney-Smith, and Richardson -- and the Mavs are a monstrous plus-51 in 98 minutes with that group. Their starting five with either Hardaway or Brunson in Richadson's place -- or even in Finney-Smith's if Dallas can risk going small -- holds promise.
Hardaway and Doncic have formed a nice two-man partnership as Doncic looks to bully small guards who defend Hardaway. The Mavs have scored 1.3 points per possession when a Doncic-Hardaway pick-and-roll leads directly to an attempt -- No. 2 among almost 275 combinations who have partnered for at least 100 such plays. (The number balloons to an absurd 1.429 -- No. 1 overall -- when you include entire possessions featuring the Doncic-Hardaway dance.)
The Mavs are 20-8 since early February. One of the biggest subplots left is whether they can escape the play-in tournament. Regardless, no one is excited to see these guys -- to joust with Doncic -- in a seven-game series.
9. The coolest pass in basketball?
Lots of NBA passes are inaccessible to pickup hacks. They don't come up much in the flow of way-below-amateur 3-on-3 or 5-on-5. But of passes regular humans might try in their regular human games, I submit this species is the very coolest:
The diagonal, long-distance lead bounce pass tossed right out of someone's dribble is so satisfying. It looks amazing -- demands a rewind every time. The level of timing, dexterity, and accuracy required is incredible.
In any full-court game, I hunted that pass. My hit rate was (shockingly!) not great. But when you even get close, you want to walk off the court and enjoy the postgame beer right away.
Who are some of the NBA candidates for best-ever -- or most stylish -- at this specific pass?
10. How are dumb challenges still happening?
If I ran a team, I would fine my coach for blowing challenges before crunch-time. Not all-pre-clutch challenges are wastes. There is value in keeping a superstar out of severe foul trouble, or (very rarely) contesting a 3-point play (or 3-shot foul) at some pivotal moment.
But in Year 2 of the challenge era, it is astonishing how many coaches barf their challenge up on innocuous early plays when it could prove so valuable in the final minutes.
Sometimes, players browbeat coaches into it. Players whirl their fingers over their heads after almost every semi-questionable call and non-call. It is the new version of screaming "and-1" even when you miss. Coaches shouldn't cave.
I get the theory behind potentially rewarding coaches a second challenge if they win their first, but given how heedless coaches are using them -- and how many things referees can already change via initiating replays on their own -- I'm not sure the extra delays are worth it.