Can the Charlotte Hornets continue their NBA playoff push without star rookie LaMelo Ball?
The Hornets announced Sunday that Ball, the No. 3 overall pick of this year's draft, has suffered a fractured bone in his right wrist. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Ball is expected to miss the rest of the season with the injury, a huge disappointment given how much fun he has been to watch.
Led by newcomers Ball and Gordon Hayward and a career year from holdover Terry Rozier, Charlotte is in the middle of an Eastern Conference playoff logjam. At 20-21, the Hornets are just 1.5 games out of fourth in the East but also 1.5 games away from sliding to 10th and having to win two play-in games on the road to reach the postseason.
How much will Ball's injury hurt Charlotte's playoff push? How should the Hornets approach Thursday's trade deadline? And what does Ball's absence mean for the Rookie of the Year race? Let's take a look at the implications.
Ball's production translating to winning
Last month, Mike Schmitz and I broke down how historic Ball's level of productivity has been for a 19-year-old rookie. Nothing has changed since then. If anything, Ball has gained steam since moving into the Charlotte starting five at the beginning of February. In 21 starts, he averaged 19.5 points, 6.2 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Perhaps more importantly, Ball has compiled those numbers with remarkable efficiency for such a young player. His overall .562 true shooting percentage (TS%) is better than the average point guard (.560), and it has improved to .586 as a starter. Although Ball has predictably struggled with turnovers at times (he is averaging 3.5 per 36 minutes), his efficiency as a scorer stands in stark contrast to that of No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, whose .483 TS% is more typical of a developing teenager.
As a result, Ball has been more than just a thrilling infusion of hope for a franchise that has yet to win a playoff series in 16 seasons since being reborn via expansion: He has been a key part of getting the Hornets back in the playoff picture. They have gone 11-10 since promoting Ball to the starting lineup despite playing 10 of those games without incumbent starter Devonte' Graham, who has returned in a reserve role since the All-Star break.
On the plus side, a healthy Graham means Charlotte coach James Borrego can still put together a solid guard rotation in Ball's absence. The Hornets will surely go back to Graham and Rozier, who started together throughout the 2019-20 season and over the first month-plus this year, with Malik Monk and the Martin twins as backup options.
Per NBA Advanced Stats, Graham-Rozier lineups without Ball have played nearly even this season (minus-0.5 net rating), so Charlotte's playoff push is hardly sunk. But the Hornets find themselves with little margin for additional injuries at point guard. Either Ball or Graham has been on the court for more than 90% of the team's minutes this campaign, so Rozier will be asked to do more playmaking than he has all year. And Charlotte doesn't have another traditional point guard besides rookie Grant Riller, so an injury to Graham or Rozier would force Borrego to rely on Hayward as a point forward with second units.
As noted, there's also little margin in the standings if the Hornets want to avoid a difficult play-in path to the postseason. Prior to Ball's injury, projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index gave Charlotte a 27% chance of finishing with a top-six seed and avoiding the play-in. With just a handful of games separating home-court advantage from the last spot in the play-in, a win or two difference the rest of the way could have a big impact on the Hornets' positioning.
Deadline help for Charlotte?
Ball's injury should affect how the Hornets approach the deadline. It was possible Charlotte could have used $4 million in remaining cap space along with the $15.4 million expiring salary of veteran center Cody Zeller to pursue another key player for a playoff push. That never made much sense for a team whose most promising player is a teenager, and it looks even more shortsighted with Ball out of the lineup.
Ideally, the Hornets would utilize their cap space to take back a contract from another team. Because rosters are limited to 15 players on full NBA contracts during the season, lopsided deals in which a team takes back more players than it sends out to match salary get complicated in a hurry. Charlotte can step in to add one of those players using an open roster spot while getting compensated with cash or a second-round draft pick.
It's possible the Hornets could use the flexibility to both help another team and add depth at point guard. For example, if the Golden State Warriors wanted to move the $2.25 million salary of Brad Wanamaker to cut their luxury-tax bill -- now that Nico Mannion has moved ahead of him in their rotation -- Charlotte would be a natural destination.
Failing that, I'd call the Timberwolves about backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who is on a two-way contract but has been productive whenever he has seen rotation minutes. If McLaughlin could be had for a low-value second-round pick (the Hornets have second-rounders this year from both the Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers), he would add valuable insurance behind Graham and Rozier.
Ball still likely best rookie
Although it's not as important as the impact to Charlotte, Ball's injury does open the door for another player to win Rookie of the Year, an award he seemingly had locked up when healthy. At the same time, Rookie of the Year hasn't typically been as dependent on strong health as compared to MVP, which I discussed Saturday after LeBron James' high ankle sprain.
In 2011-12, Kyrie Irving won Rookie of the Year while playing 77% of the games in the lockout-shortened season (51-of-66), while Brandon Roy won in 2006-07 playing just 70% (57-of-82). And in 1985-86, Patrick Ewing was Rookie of the Year despite playing just 50 games (61%) -- not far from Ball's 57% (41-of-72) if his season is indeed over.
With a smaller field of contenders and more variation in terms of productivity while on the court, it's inevitable that durability will be less of a factor for Rookie of the Year. We did see the voters put a lower limit on the necessary number of games when Joel Embiid finished third in the voting in 2016-17, when he was clearly the most effective rookie but played just 31 games (38%).
As compared to 2016-17, when Malcolm Brogdon became the first player drafted in the second round to win Rookie of the Year since Woody Sauldsberry in 1957-58, the field looks deeper this season. Still, Ball had established a huge advantage in terms of statistical value. Consider Ball's lead in terms of wins above replacement (WAR) in ESPN's real plus-minus.
Ball has produced nearly twice as many WAR as any other rookie thus far, leading a group made up of players drafted outside the top 10 who have generally thrived in smaller roles. His advantage over the other top-five picks putting up the kind of per-game stats that typically translate into Rookie of the Year is even more dramatic. Nobody else in this group rates as better than replacement level thus far.
It's too early to write off the Rookie of the Year race, as it's possible a contender could break out over the final two months of the season. But Ball's lead is going to make him difficult to catch.