What are the key takeaways from the NBA's announcement of starters for the All-Star Game on March 7?
Hours after the league made the long-expected, scaled-down All-Star Game in Atlanta official, the starters from the Eastern and Western Conferences were announced Thursday night. As has become tradition, the other eight starters will make up the pool of players for team captains Kevin Durant and LeBron James to pick in the first four rounds of the All-Star player draft before selecting among the players announced as reserves next week.
Who should be the No. 1 pick of the All-Star draft? Who were the best players left out of the starting fives? And what decisions are left for the coaches on reserves? Let's break it down, FAQ-style.
1. Did the process get it "right"?
Fortunately, the three groups involved in picking starters -- the fans, the media and the players -- were almost entirely in agreement on the three frontcourt spots in both conferences. The only mild debate among this group was whether Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers merited a spot in the West frontcourt over chosen starters James, Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard, who have outperformed him so far this season. (Davis finished third in player voting, ahead of Leonard.)
That became moot on Sunday when Davis suffered a calf strain and aggravated tendonosis in his right Achilles tendon, injuries expected to sideline him through the All-Star break. Davis still deserves a spot on the West roster as a reserve, but the starters are now clear.
The two guard spots in both conferences were more difficult calls. In the West, Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard all have strong cases to start. In the end, the fan vote gave Doncic the tiebreaker over Lillard, who had the edge among players and the media. The East backcourt race was wide open, but all three groups agreed on Bradley Beal of the Washington Wizards as the first choice with Kyrie Irving getting the other spot ahead of backcourt-mate James Harden by virtue of fan and player votes.
I voted for Lillard and Harden, but the guards who made it are deserving, so it's hard to fault the process this time around.
2. Who should be the No. 1 pick?
There was never any question last year that James would take his Lakers teammate Davis as the No. 1 pick in the All-Star draft. In 2019, James took Durant No. 1, and he picked both Davis and Durant in 2018 when the first incarnation of the draft was neither televised nor announced in order. With those two players ineligible for selection because Davis is injured and Durant is the other captain this time around, James will have to find a new top choice.
Beyond the two captains, three other starters have separated themselves with their play in past All-Star Games as measured by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and its per-minute counterpart, player win percentage.
Any of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard or Irving would be a reasonable first choice for James. From a pure basketball standpoint, Leonard -- last year's MVP -- is probably the best pick to try to win the game. He provides both floor spacing and a lockdown wing defender if the game is close once it nears the Elam ending target score and winning becomes a serious consideration.
There's also a strong case for taking Irving No. 1. He's the fourth starter (including the two captains) with an All-Star MVP to his credit, back in 2014. It's worth noting that James drafted his former Cleveland Cavaliers teammate in both 2018 and 2019, taking him ahead of Kawhi the latter year.
3. Who's the easiest reserve pick?
Lillard, who has had the clock stuck on "Dame Time" the entire month of February. Since backcourt-mate CJ McCollum -- who was off to an All-Star start to the season -- went down with a hairline fracture of the lateral cuneiform in his left foot, all Lillard has done is average 31.9 PPG and 8.6 APG, make 4.5 3s per game at a 39% clip and make a pair of winning shots during a surprising 10-5 stretch for the Portland Trail Blazers. As a result, Lillard's 4.9 wins produced by ESPN's real plus-minus rank him fourth in the league behind Curry, James and Jokic.
It should take West coaches less time to write in Lillard's name in their guard column than it took you to read this sentence.
4. What are the toughest choices for coaches?
The first question in the East is what to do with Jimmy Butler, who has missed extended periods so far this season. Butler sat out 10 games due to the league's health and safety protocols after missing two early in the campaign with an ankle sprain, meaning he has played in just over half of the Miami Heat's 28 games to date. After demonstrating in last year's playoffs that he's one of the league's most impactful star players, Butler might find himself out of the All-Star Game for the second time in three years.
Assuming Harden joins Jaylen Brown and Trae Young as East backcourt reserves, that leaves East coaches just four spots for a group of players that includes 2020 All-Stars Butler, Bam Adebayo, Khris Middleton, Domantas Sabonis, Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum plus Malcolm Brogdon, Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, Zach LaVine, Julius Randle, Fred VanVleet and Nikola Vucevic. Good luck cutting nine of them.
The first five spots in the West should be relatively easy. Lillard and Donovan Mitchell have separated themselves as picks in the backcourt with Davis, Paul George (despite injuries and a protocol-related absence that have cost him 10 games) and Rudy Gobert in the frontcourt.
The West wild-card spots are wide open. Mike Conley has a case to finally make his first All-Star appearance as a third representative for the Utah Jazz, who have the league's best record, while both the Phoenix Suns (Devin Booker and Chris Paul) and New Orleans Pelicans (Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson) have a pair of contenders. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, De'Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings and DeMar DeRozan of the San Antonio Spurs are also in the mix for those two openings, with a third spot likely available if and when Davis is ruled out for the All-Star Game.