Two teams that probably started the season one notch below the inner circle of contenders have since busted that party -- at least tentatively: the Eastern Conference-leading Philadelphia 76ers and the Utah Jazz, who had won 11 straight games before Nikola Jokic tap-danced all over them on Sunday.
Two unprecedented statistics help tell the tale of how these two teams have so far outperformed expectations.
Utah: Elite multitasking
The Jazz rank No. 1 in both 3-point attempts and offensive rebounding rate, two statistics that often have an inverse relationship -- i.e., if you're good at one, you're probably bad at the other. Over the past 20 seasons, only one team -- the 2013-14 Portland Trail Blazers -- has ranked even in the top three in both 3-point attempts and offensive rebounds per game, per ESPN Stats & Information research.
The presence of that Portland team, coached by Terry Stotts, is interesting. Under Stotts' (non-interim) predecessor, Nate McMillan, the Blazers were one of the only teams who continued to crash the offensive glass as the rest of the league de-emphasized it. Offensive rebounding leaguewide has fallen continuously for the past 15 years or so, reaching record lows almost every season.
There are two main reasons:
• The rise of the 3-pointer has warped the composition of five-man lineups and where each of those five guys tends to stand on offense. Lineups have gotten a hair smaller, and smaller people generally get fewer rebounds. Power forwards, once voracious offensive rebounders in the mold of Charles Barkley, have migrated behind the 3-point arc; it's hard to snare boards when you are 25 feet from the rim. Some lineups feature five 3-point shooters, unthinkable even 10 years ago, and no one who ends up close to the basket.
It's true that long jumpers produce more long rebounds (and therefore more offensive rebounds), but that it is only relative to shorter jumpers. Shots at the rim generate by far the most offensive boards. Teams swapping midrange shots for 3s would in a vacuum enjoy an uptick in offensive rebounds. Teams also swapping shots at the rim for 3s can nullify that first trend. Utah is 21st in the share of field goal attempts that come in the restricted area, per Cleaning The Glass.
• Coaches have prioritized transition defense over offensive rebounding. Anecdotally, this seems to have done more to silence the offensive glass. Coaches want three, four, and sometimes all five players sprinting back on defense instead of chasing a low-percentage offensive board.
There does seem to be some cost to transition defense in crashing the offensive glass. But the precise cost is unclear, and varies greatly by team depending on scheme and personnel. A handful of teams -- including those McMillan-era Blazers -- regularly posted high offensive rebounding rates without yielding a bonanza of enemy fast-breaks.
The Jazz have been a middle-of-the-pack transition team over the past few seasons. They rank 10th in opponent fast-break points, and a bit worse than average -- in both the frequency of opponent transition chances and points allowed on those chances -- in overall transition defense, according to an analysis of play-by-play data at Cleaning The Glass. Utah would probably accept that as the trade-off for leading everyone in offensive boards.
The best of both worlds is having one player who can single-handedly lift your offensive rebounding rate -- allowing everyone else to get back on defense. With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors -- Nos. 7 and 8 in individual offensive rebounding rate, respectively -- platooning at center, the Jazz live that "best of both worlds" life.
Utah turns pick-and-rolls into offensive rebounds. Those plays have Gobert and Favors rumbling to the rim anyway, placing them in ideal offensive rebounding position -- especially if their guy leaps out to challenge a Jazz shooter launching out of that same pick-and-roll. When Utah's guards and wings drive, they draw help around the basket from opposing centers -- the guys charged with patrolling Gobert and Favors. That results in a ton of easy offensive rebounds:
Gobert and Favors are big and bouncy enough to play volleyball with their own misses, though neither Moses Malones his way to an unusual number of offensive rebounds. (Among players with at least 50 offensive boards, Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, and Clint Capela are in a neck-and-neck-and-neck race for the league lead in percentage of their offensive rebounds that come via their own misses -- all around 30%, per Second Spectrum tracking data.)
On a lot of pick-and-rolls, Favors and Gobert flick minifloaters over smaller help defenders who crash in from the wings. If Utah's centers miss, they reach up and pluck rebounds from over the heads of those undersized helpers.
But Utah's elite offensive rebounding goes beyond its two centers. The Jazz often have a shooter stationed in each corner, and those players have some leeway to crash on misses -- though ideally using different methods. If one corner shooter takes a straight line to the glass, the other often loops up and in toward the center of the foul line -- perfect position for a long boink.
(Gobert's sheer size and length also help him reach back for long ricochet rebounds.)
Royce O'Neale is probably Utah's sneakiest and most ferocious corner crasher. Mike Conley Jr. has an eye for tracking how the ball will fly off the rim. Woe befalls the defender who does not keep two eyes on Miye Oni.
When the Jazz get into blender mode, whipping the ball side to side, they scramble defenses to the point where it's uncertain who is supposed to be guarding whom by the end of possessions. Some Jazz men are left alone along the arc after some of those blender sequences. Quin Snyder appears to have given players freedom to rush all the way in from 3-point range if they think they can do so untouched. O'Neale, again, is a demon at this.
The two elements fuse when an offensive rebound leads to a kickout 3-pointer -- which are often clean looks that, at least in some seasons, have gone in at a higher rate than 3s overall.
Any team that prioritizes offensive rebounding is walking a tightrope to at least some degree. The Jazz pulling this off while leading the league in 3-point attempts is historically rare.
Joel Embiid: Free throw fiend
After bullying his way to 18 free throw attempts against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, Embiid is now averaging 12.9 foul shots per 36 minutes. That would be the highest number in NBA history, surpassing Wilt Chamberlain's mark of 12.6 in the statalicious 1961-62 season, according to both Basketball-Reference and the Elias Sports Bureau. Holy smokes.
Embiid is having one of those magical seasons when a player's physical and mental powers intersect at their zeniths. Embiid can bulldoze all but maybe two or three NBA centers on the block one-on-one. The rest are helpless. Embiid is sprinting harder in transition, and burrowing his way to deeper seals early in the shot clock. Without urgent double-team help, most post defenders choose between fouling Embiid or hoping he somehow misses a layup while they fall out of bounds.
Within Daryl Morey's redesigned roster, Embiid either plays with one (Ben Simmons) or zero non-shooters. Entry passes are easier; Philly's perimeter guys can sometimes lob over fronts without fear that a help defender might creep in for a steal. Double-teamers have more distance to cover, giving Embiid more time to score before they get there -- and cleaner passing lanes if he decides to kick it out.
He has gotten cagier dribbling out toward the perimeter when double-teams come, waiting for help defenders to return to their original assignments, and then -- dribble still live -- going right back into attack mode down low.
Embiid's post game is more decisive, and less laborious. He's getting into his moves faster after the Sixers spring him with cross screens under the basket -- another set piece that does more damage amid improved spacing:
When Embiid sees his defender giving even an inch or two of territory along the baseline, he darts into it -- drawing shoulder-to-shoulder contact. The second Embiid feels any contact, he's going up with it.
Defenders whine that Embiid initiates lots of that contact. Often, they are right. Embiid has a lot of tricks. He extends the ball out on both jumpers and layups, engineering collisions. He'll take unnatural angles to jump into defenders. He's not above a flail, or a cheap rip-through with Philly in the bonus.
But defenders also make a lot of contact with Embiid early, because they have to. If they are not leaning on him -- if they give him a foot of breathing room -- he's so strong, and so fast, he's just going to plow through them for dunks. Embiid also gets defenders off balance with a deep bag of fakes and gorgeous low-block footwork.
Embiid's rate of drawing fouls on post-ups and overall efficiency on them are about where they were last season, per Second Spectrum -- which is to say monstrous. The jump has come in Embiid's face-up game. His midrange jumper has been automatic all season; he has hit 55% of his long 2s, per Cleaning The Glass.
That accuracy has weaponized an already beguiling pump fake -- another mechanism for baiting guys into fouls. If you jump or lunge forward, Embiid turns his jumper into a leaner -- more contact, more free throws.
Philly has scored 1.29 points per possession anytime Embiid shoots out of a drive, or passes to a teammate who fires right away -- a mark that would have led all players last season, per Second Spectrum. He has turned the ball over on only 2% of his drives, a miniscule number.
He's going one-on-one more from the outside -- a career-high 11 isolations per 100 possessions, 12th-most in the league. His efficiency on those plays has also skyrocketed, per Second Spectrum. Embiid has drawn fouls on 15.8% of his isos, a rate that would have ranked third among 162 players who recorded at least 50 isolations last season, per Second Spectrum.
This is the ultra-engaged Embiid we have been waiting for -- the Embiid who can be the MVP, and the best two-way player in the NBA. If he maintains this level -- and Tobias Harris maintains his, and Simmons bottles the level of aggression he tapped into two Fridays ago in the fourth quarter against the Boston Celtics -- the Sixers are going to be a problem in the playoffs.