When Houston Rockets general manager Rafael Stone explained last week why he prioritized a bundle of first-round picks and not a current All-NBA player like Ben Simmons in a James Harden trade, he said it was because, "In the NBA, picks -- especially high picks -- are the best currency."
Those valuable picks, the lifeblood of so many blockbusters, are suddenly in very short supply.
Two developments over the past couple of years have frozen numerous teams out of trading picks for years on end. Currently, 15 teams are either out multiple first-round picks, forbidden from trading more, or have their picks locked -- "encumbered" in front-office vernacular, which means they can't trade them for multiple years.
The March 25 trade deadline was already set to challenge buyers as the new play-in tournament means 20 teams can make the "postseason" this year, incentivizing teams on the fringes from giving up. But coupled with the scarcity of picks available, the nature of trades could change for the foreseeable future.
The NBA has a long history of legislating measures to protect teams from themselves. From the "Stepien rule" in 1982, which prohibited trading first-round picks in consecutive years, to limits on rookie and star contracts, to recent changes in the draft lottery that discourage tanking, one rule is particularly germane in this discussion: teams can only trade picks seven years into the future -- up to the 2027 draft for the current league year.
In the fall of 2017, there was an item on the league's preseason board of governors meeting agenda that called for a vote on a rule that would ban trading pick swaps to teams that already owed future first-round picks to other teams. Basically, a "Brooklyn Nets rule" dating to the infamous 2013 trade with the Boston Celtics that led to the swap of the pick that became the No. 1 in the 2017 draft.
Despite a lobbying effort by several teams, the vote was taken off that agenda. As such, superstar trades that have included multiple first-round picks plus pick swaps have continued unabated. The NBA has seen four of them in roughly 18 months (the Anthony Davis, Paul George, Jrue Holiday and Harden deals).
The other development is the new, flatter draft lottery, enabling teams to climb from further back into top spots. In 2019, the first year of the revamped odds, the New Orleans Pelicans jumped from sixth to first and the Lakers from 11th to fourth. Last year, the Charlotte Hornets and Chicago Bulls took advantage of improved odds to rise into the top four.
As a result, when teams trade first-round picks with protections, they've added more restrictions to prevent being burned by an unexpected leap in the new lottery format. The Detroit Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers each traded first-rounders that had sliding protections for seven seasons.
This means neither of them can trade a first-rounder right now because they don't know when the pick will convey, and the Stepien rule locks them out of trading more. Plenty of teams are in similar jams:
The Phoenix Suns, because of the three years of protections on the 2022 pick they sent to Oklahoma City for Chris Paul, can't trade a first-rounder until 2027. The Utah Jazz, because of the years of protections they put on a pick they sent to Memphis for Mike Conley, can't trade a first until 2026. The Dallas Mavericks, because of the two firsts they sent the New York Knicks for Kristaps Porzingis plus three years of protections, can't trade a first until 2027.
The Washington Wizards, because of a string of protections in the pick sent to Houston for Russell Westbrook, can trade this year's first, but it couldn't be protected and they can't trade any others. Considering the talent in the upcoming draft, a team like Washington that has a chance of being in the lottery is unlikely to trade an unprotected pick this season.
The Miami Heat owe their 2021 first to Oklahoma City and their 2023 first with three years of protections to the Thunder as well. Because of the Stepien rule and an uncertainty of when those picks can convey, the Heat also can't currently trade a first-rounder.
Because of star acquisitions that required multiple firsts and the Stepien rule, the LA Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Lakers and Nets also can't trade any first-round pick right now.
Seven teams are totally locked out of the draft-pick market this season at the trade deadline -- and considering Washington's situation, it might as well count as the provisional eighth. Discussions with those in the league believe a list this deep has never happened.
With the going rate to acquire star players being so high, the lack of supply could inhibit the market for the next star who wants out. One consequence of all this, league executives predict, is that the pick swaps themselves become more commonplace in trades.
Amending old trades is another possibility, something that has already started. When the Bucks wanted to make their trade for Holiday, they were unable to trade the needed three unprotected first-rounders to New Orleans because of a protected first-rounder owed to the Cleveland Cavaliers starting in 2022.
The Bucks had to convince the Cavs to unprotect the pick, ensuring it would convey in 2022, so they would be allowed to move picks in 2025 and 2027 in the Holiday trade.
But nothing is free. Milwaukee had to pay Cleveland a second-round pick to amend the trade.
This puts the teams holding protected picks in solid position. When the Heat had brief talks with the Rockets about a Harden trade, the only way they could've included their own future first-rounders would've been to call the Thunder and agree on a new price to unprotect the picks in addition to what they'd have to trade to the Rockets.
Focusing just on the upcoming trade deadline, only a few contending teams have picks in this year's draft that can be traded: the Philadelphia 76ers, Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets.
But even that comes with caveats. Because the Nuggets owe a pick with protections to -- you guessed it, the Thunder -- starting in 2023, this is the last year they can trade a first until 2027. Because the 76ers owe a pick with protections to -- you guessed it again, the Thunder -- starting in 2025, they can trade 2021 or 2023 firsts but no others.
When next season starts, the 2028 picks will become available for the trade market, though that's so far off into the future it's hard to assign value to them now. And a few picks will probably convey in the 2021 draft that will loosen some teams' restrictions.
But if an NBA team wants to acquire a first-round pick in the near future, it may find the market rather tight.