Can the Portland Trail Blazers survive playing without two starters for an extended period?
Late Monday night in the Pacific Northwest, the Blazers announced that CJ McCollum's foot injury -- previously reported as a sprain -- was in fact a rare hairline fracture of the lateral cuneiform in his left foot. He'll miss at least the next four weeks before being reevaluated.
McCollum's injury on Saturday night came two days after Portland lost starting center Jusuf Nurkic to a fractured wrist that will also sideline him an extended period. Without both players, the Blazers lost at home to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday afternoon, dropping them to 8-6. After falling to the eighth seed in 2019-20 because of injuries, is Portland looking at a similar fate this season? Who could the Blazers add to help replace Nurkic and McCollum? Let's break it down.
Injury ends McCollum's hot start
For McCollum, the timing of this injury is surely difficult because he was in the midst of the best sustained stretch of play during his NBA career. When he was injured, McCollum led the NBA in wins above replacement player by my metric with 2.9 WARP. (He's since been passed by Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.)
A new focus on seeking out 3s had benefited McCollum, who had increased his attempts per 36 minutes from a career-high 9.5 last season by nearly 40% to 15.5 during the season's first 13 games. Add in 44% accuracy on those attempts, which would also be a career high for McCollum, and he'd boosted his scoring by 6.5 points per 36 minutes as compared to 2019-20.
Given the number of proven All-Star guards in the Western Conference, including his backcourt mate Damian Lillard, McCollum would have had a hard time making the roster for the first time in his career. But if McCollum continued playing so well, coaches might have had to find room for him somehow. Unfortunately, the injury rules out that possibility. Worse yet, McCollum's start was a big reason the Blazers started the season 8-5, and his loss puts that momentum in jeopardy.
Portland carried by starters
The Blazers entered 2020-21 with high hopes of bouncing back after a below-.500 finish in 2019-20 forced them to rally for a seventh consecutive playoff appearance by virtue of winning the play-in matchup for the eighth seed.
In particular, Portland struggled defensively last season with Nurkic sidelined the entirety of the pre-restart schedule while recovering from a compound fracture of his lower left leg in March 2019. His return along with the additions of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. figured to help the Blazers at the defensive end, and it has -- to a point.
The Portland starting five of guards McCollum and Lillard, forwards Covington and Jones and Nurkic has defended at a league-average level in 188 minutes of action, allowing a 107.6 defensive rating and outscoring opponents by six points per 100 possessions. When at least one of the Blazers' defensively-challenged reserves is on the court, that defensive rating jumps to 113.1, which would put Portland ahead of only the Sacramento Kings.
Surely, the Blazers' depth isn't quite that fragile, and they were able to hold off the Atlanta Hawks Saturday night with Nurkic replaced in the starting five by Enes Kanter and McCollum unavailable for the second half. But Monday's loss to the Spurs, who shot an effective 62% from the field accounting for the additional value of 3-point shots -- easily their best mark of the season -- might have been more telling of what to expect.
With 2019-20 starter Zach Collins also sidelined after undergoing a second ankle surgery late last month, Portland has quickly gone from an overstuffed rotation to one without enough quality players for a rotation. Behind Kanter at center, the Blazers are counting on reclamation project Harry Giles, whose promising preseason hasn't carried over to rotation minutes during the regular season.
McCollum's absence is an even bigger blow. Previously, Portland coach Terry Stotts had carefully managed his rotation to keep one of his star guards on the court at all times. That's no longer possible, and in the 12 minutes Lillard was off the court Monday, the Blazers were outscored by 18 points.
Third-year guard Anfernee Simons, who will now serve as Lillard's backup after being on the fringes of the rotation previously, hasn't developed as Portland hoped and has seen his true shooting percentage decline from .502 in 2019-20 -- already far worse than the league average of .565 -- to .437 so far this season.
Can the Blazers add help?
Portland's ability to add reinforcements is complicated by the team's precarious position with regard to the luxury tax. The Blazers began the season with an open roster spot because they wanted to account for the possibility of Nurkic earning a $1.25 million incentive for playing at least 62 games and the team winning at least 44 games (when adjusted for this season's 72-game regular season).
Clearly, Nurkic will not reach those thresholds because of the injury, which gives Portland a little wiggle room but not much. The Blazers now stand $1.9 million below the luxury-tax line, which gives them the ability to sign a 15th player but doesn't give them much flexibility in trades.
For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers were touted as an obvious trade partner after Nurkic's injury because the Cavaliers' roster is overflowing with centers following their deal for Jarrett Allen. But dealing for JaVale McGee, the likely odd man out in Cleveland making $4.2 million this season, would take Portland into the luxury tax unless the team sent back at least two players in return. That likely makes a McGee trade a non-starter for the Blazers. It's also probably not necessary at center, where the team could add depth by filling the second two-way spot with a promising G-League prospect like Donta Hall.
Realistically, Portland's best hope of staying afloat for the next four weeks would be signing a veteran point guard for the minimum. Shabazz Napier, who started 32 games last season for the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards, inexplicably remains unsigned and has experience in the Blazers' system after spending two seasons in Portland as Lillard's backup earlier in his career. Another former Blazer backup, Tim Frazier, is also available after his 10-day contract with the Memphis Grizzlies ended last week.
Thus far, Portland president of basketball operations Neil Olshey has resisted adding a veteran reserve at point guard because of his belief in Simons. At 2019 media day, Olshey called Simons "as gifted a player as anyone I've drafted in my 15 years in the league" -- a group that includes Lillard, McCollum and Blake Griffin.
Pressure to make the playoffs may force the Blazers to revisit that decision. Already, Portland's playoff odds had dropped to 61% in FiveThirtyEight's projections when the timeline for McCollum's absence looked like a week or two. With their hot-shooting guard sidelined longer than that, the Blazers could again be headed to this year's expanded play-in tournament.