Here we go -- a new round of 10 things featuring the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, Zion Williamson and Luguentz Dort.
1. The Bucks, settling in
Twelve games into a season where it's hard to practice, the Bucks are humming: 118 points per 100 possessions, above the best single-season mark ever. They looked polished -- as if they have been playing together longer than they have.
Mike Budenholzer is settling into a rotation. He has mostly separated D.J. Augustin and Bryn Forbes so as to avoid being too small on defense, and finds time for each in Donte DiVincenzo's spot alongside Milwaukee's core four starters.
Forbes and Giannis Antetokounmpo have developed nice pick-and-roll chemistry, with Forbes setting flat screens for Antetokounmpo before darting behind the arc -- a trick Malcolm Brogdon mastered in Milwaukee:
Bobby Portis -- shooting 56% -- backs up Brook Lopez at center, and plays some beside Lopez. Thanasis Antetokounmpo is the swing piece -- the backup power forward unless Budenholzer wants to go smaller, and use Pat Connaughton there. There is maximum shooting at almost all times. Milwaukee under Budenholzer has always jacked a ton of 3s. The difference now is they are making them: 41%, behind only the LA Clippers.
As I noted on the Lowe Post podcast in the first week of the season, they have tweaked the offense so one player often lurks in the dunker spot along the baseline. At first glance, that clutters Antetokounmpo's driving lanes. Sometimes, it does.
But it also complicates the opponent's help rotations in barricading the paint. Lunge off that guy, and Antetokounmpo has an easy drop-off. Defenders guarding Milwaukee's corner shooters keep one eye on the dunker spot in case they need to rotate there. Such divided attention leads to easy catch-and-shoot 3s.
With three shooters around the arc instead of four, there is more space between them -- making each rotation longer. It has led to sequences like this -- with Jrue Holiday in the dunker role:
The cat is out of the bag on this. The question, as always, is how Milwaukee will adjust when someone stifles Plan A.
Their defense is more or less the same, only with another stopper in Holiday. Only the Chicago Bulls switch fewer on-ball screens, per Second Spectrum. Only the Indiana Pacers switch fewer off-ball picks. Are the Bucks at least practicing switches for the playoffs?
Interestingly, Antetokounmpo has barely played center in super-small lineups without both Portis and Lopez. I thought they might use him more as a screener with Holiday aboard, but that hasn't been the case, per Second Spectrum.
Keep an eye on Milwaukee. They are really good, under major pressure, and it's fun to watch what they change and what they keep.
2. Oh, hey, the Lakers are awesome
The Lakers are tied for third in offense and rank first in defense even though they haven't revved the engine yet. They are different -- particularly on offense, where they are not the same battering ram at the basket -- but they might be better. Their new starting five has outscored opponents by (rubs eyes/checks to make sure I'm conscious) 30 points per 100 possessions. They are playing a more aggressive defense, but they appear just as fearsome -- smart, in sync, huge along the back line.
LeBron James is averaging almost three fewer minutes per game than in any prior season. His touches and time of possession are down beyond what you would expect given that minutes decline. He's running about seven fewer pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum. This team is playing the long game and dominating the present. Gulp.
They are only scratching the surface of what James and Anthony Davis can do alongside a scoring point guard (Dennis Schroder) within all the space the Lakers opened by signing Marc Gasol.
They ran this Schroder-James pick-and-roll -- with Davis and Gasol in the corners -- against the Rockets on Tuesday until they got bored scoring so easily:
Schroder dusts James Harden in what was Harden's final game as a Rocket, when he may or may not have accidentally worn a Brooklyn Nets jersey underneath his Houston uniform.
Switching exposes another mismatch: LeBron with a point guard on him.
Houston pivoted to drop-back defense after this. It didn't work. Schroder hit LeBron with a pocket pass, and LeBron rumbling to the rim is a DEFCON 1 emergency. The Rockets swarmed, and LeBron kicked to Gasol for a wide-open corner 3.
Davis-at-center lineups offer the same spacing with more speed and defensive versatility.
The Lakers remain favorites to repeat.
3. Dial in, Zion!
Williamson may be one of those players who for whatever reason -- instincts, positioning, hunger for points -- is a much better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder. For the second straight season, he is inhaling Pelicans misses while posting the defensive rebounding rate of a wing.
On the surface, this isn't crippling. New Orleans leads the league in defensive rebounding rate. Their guards and wings snare enough boards to accommodate down games from Williamson. (Josh Hart leads them in defensive rebounding rate by a lot.) Williamson is a wide obstacle just standing in the paint.
But sometimes the Pelicans need Williamson to go up and get it. That need is magnified when Williamson plays without Steven Adams; the Pelicans' defensive rebounding rate in those minutes falls almost to league-worst levels, per NBA.com. The team can't play Williamson at center much if it means bleeding rebounds.
Tracking data records where players stand when every shot goes up, and how good they are at snagging rebounds when they don't start in ideal position. Williamson rates very poorly for a big man by these measures, per Second Spectrum.
You have to box someone out or jump. Standing there hoping the ball falls to you is not a strategy.
Williamson's defense is being nitpicked to a degree that is probably unfair for a second-year player who has battled conditioning issues and injury. He will improve, both one-on-one and within New Orleans' (quite demanding) scheme. You see him overthinking rotations:
The simplest way Williamson can help is being more diligent on the glass.
4. Cuttin' Chris Boucher
Boucher has been one of the bright spots in the Tampa Drakes' dreary start. He's averaging 15 points on 59% shooting, including 47% from deep.
He is doing all the stuff you'd expect, including flying from nowhere to contest 3-pointers. It must be unnerving to see Boucher and his elastic arms invading your airspace as you rise up. Boucher has blocked six triples in 11 games, per Second Spectrum. Matisse Thybulle led all players with 21 3-point rejections last season. Mitchell Robinson has the highest single-season total -- 24 -- since the introduction of tracking data in 2013. Draymond Green has the most (76) in that span. Boucher is on pace to block 39 3-pointers in 72 games!
It is very hard to score against Toronto with Boucher, Kyle Lowry, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam on the floor. The Raps have allowed just 103.7 points per 100 possessions with that quartet on the floor -- a tick stingier than the Lakers' top-ranked defense, per NBA.com. Toronto has needed every stop given its woes on the other end.
One worry: rebounding. The Raptors are a bad rebounding team, and they hemorrhage boards with the rail-thin Boucher at center. Even so, Toronto is plus-6 points per 100 possessions with Boucher on the floor, and minus-6.5 when he sits. His shooting pries open space on offense, and he's a menace at the basket on defense; opponents shoot about 8% worse at the rim with Boucher on the floor, a gargantuan difference, per Cleaning The Glass. He should start over Aron Baynes in almost every matchup, though I have no real problem with Nick Nurse starting Baynes to try and get him going -- and then playing Boucher the lion's share of center minutes, as he did in Thursday's win over the Charlotte Hornets.
One under-the-radar Boucher thing: he's a sneaky cutter. Gander at a pick-and-roll elsewhere, and Boucher bolts to the rim:
He's smart sliding into pockets of space around the arc:
The Raptors are better than their record. They have time to salvage this season.
5. Eric Gordon doing this thing
It has been a rough season in Houston. James Harden tarnished his reputation and tortured the franchise that catered everything to him by showing up out of shape, flouting coronavirus protocols, half-assing his final few games, and trashing teammates who were playing harder than he was.
By the way: Stephen Silas, Houston's coach, has been painted as a victim -- and to some degree, he is. But this could work out fantastically for Silas. Harden is gone. The team is rebuilding. He has zero pressure to win big now, unless Tilman Fertitta is delusional. He should have a long runway, and the chance to coach up younger players.
At least Houston fans have this:
I can't quite articulate why, but I find this quirk in Gordon's dribbling rhythm mesmerizing. I could watch that clip 50 times. Focus on his upper body, and he looks like a boxer bobbing and weaving.
6. Tyus Jones: That's fundamental!
If one team acquired Jones and Monte Morris, they would probably set the record for lowest turnover rate. True to form, Jones has 63 assists and 12 turnovers -- a ratio that ranks 5th overall. That is in line with Jones' prior marks, though he posted a ridiculous 7-to-1 ratio in 2018-19. (He led the league in each of the last two seasons; Morris was second.)
There is a price to Jones's style. His risk aversion bleeds into passivity that can stall offenses. He doesn't puncture the defense in ways that contort it. He drew fouls on only 1% of his pick-and-rolls last season, 185th out of 210 players who ran at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum. He averages less than one free throw attempt per game.
He typically shoots on only about a third of his pick-and-rolls -- one of the lowest figures in the league. If defenses know you won't shoot -- that you don't dare approach the rim -- they only throw so much attention at you. He's overmatched as a fill-in starter for Ja Morant.
But Jones is a very good caretaker backup. Memphis found lightning in a bottle last season with bench units that mixed Jones' stoicism with the wreck-everything raucousness of De'Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke's two-way versatility. The Grizz were plus-135 in 301 minutes with those three on the floor; Jones' injury was an underrated factor in their bubble struggles.
Opponents are mauling the Grizz with Jones on the floor this season, but it's hard to read much into that given how injuries have decimated Memphis's roster. (Seriously: how is this team 5-6? No one other than maybe Desmond Bane is outperforming expectations, minus bursts from Slow-Mo Anderson and Gorgui Dieng. The answer is mostly a defense that ranks fifth in points allowed per possession, allowing few 3s or shots at the rim.)
Jones' shooting is down, and the Grizz have hit just 30% from deep with him on the floor. Those things will normalize.
In the meantime, one Jones favorite: few players make more fundamentally sound use of the bounce pass. Seriously: Jones could be basketball's Tom Emanski after he retires.
I thought Jones would gamble on the lob to Clarke. Nope. He waited for Isaac Okoro to approach, and pounded that baby off the floor -- hard enough so it popped up to Clarke's waist.
Jones picks up his dribble with a textbook jump stop, and holds his crouch for an extra beat so Xavier Tillman Sr. can slip behind Larry Nance Jr. -- opening a corridor for that diagonal bounce.
That is sexy, old-school, ground-bound basketball.
7. Lu Dort is happening!
Dort is morphing from curiosity to basketball player. He has hit 44% of his ceiling-scraping 3s on decent volume -- about 6.5 attempts per 36 minutes -- even though the shot flies so high, the atmosphere might alter its trajectory. He has a bulldozing pump-and-go game, and a surprising ability to decelerate:
Dort is averaging about 12 drives per 100 possessions, up from eight last season, per Second Spectrum. A cautionary note: Oklahoma City has scored a paltry 0.714 points per possession when Dort shoots out of a drive or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 178th out of 190 players who have recorded at least 20 drives.
Dort is wild and turnover prone. He has zero midrange game; he is 1-of-10 on shots from between the restricted area and the 3-point arc. Still: it's encouraging to see him stretch himself.
He remains a growling brick wall on defense. His motor is incredible, and occasionally a little disconcerting.
Nine guys are playing basketball there. Dort is playing his own game, scrambling around as if someone has challenged him to guard an entire team at once. He denies Evan Fournier an open 3, rides Fournier's hip into the lane, and slashes outside to fly at Dwayne Bacon. He then drifts right to deter a potential pass to Aaron Gordon in the corner, and finally U-turns out to deflect that kickout to Fournier.
I'm tired just watching that. It looks like someone is controlling Dort with a remote control.
In conclusion: MAKE THE DORT MINI-LICENSE PLATES!!
8. The Knicks' offense is still terrible
Coaching and effort can do only so much to make up for a lack of both shooting and star talent. The Knicks rank 28th in points per possession, and the lane is just as clogged as it was last season, when the Knicks ranked ... 28th in points per possession.
It's hard to score in 2021 when you start one average 3-point shooter. That would be the always-scowling Austin Rivers, starting in place of Reggie Bullock. RJ Barrett is shooting 18.5% on 3s and 44% on 2s. Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton are down to 34% and 33% from deep, respectively, after hot starts. Defenses treat them as non-shooters.
Once Alec Burks returns, the Knicks will have some good (or potentially) good shooters on the bench: Burks, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley (just 29% on 3s), Kevin Knox (one of New York's happy early-season stories, showing progress beyond shooting), and Bullock/Rivers. They can build lineups with two or even three range shooters.
But the only way to solve the issue within the starting five is benching one of Barrett, Payton, Randle, or Mitchell Robinson. Demoting Payton makes the most sense given the greater importance of the other three to New York's present and future, but it would leave New York either dependent on Quickley or starting without a traditional point guard.
More teams are busting out zone defenses against the Knicks -- daring them to launch. Denver went zone for most of its win Sunday; watch Nerlens Noel and Randle collide in the middle of it:
That's the thing about bad outside shooters: they gravitate to the rim, which warps floor balance and makes it hard for the Knicks to scurry back on defense:
New York is 16th in points allowed after misses and 29th after turnovers, per Inpredictable. This was a problem last season, too.
Perhaps they had no chance to get him, but I loved the idea of Fred VanVleet in New York. This roster begs for a point guard to spoon-feed New York's younger players and draw attention beyond the arc. Oh well.
9. Payton Pritchard has a nose for the ball
Where would the Celtics be without Pritchard? They are plus-45 in his 229 minutes, and minus-27 in the remaining 251 minutes. All but nearly 50 of Pritchard's minutes have come with one of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, but not both, meaning Pritchard has been crucial in Boston's offense staying afloat in minutes that are precarious without Kemba Walker.
The Celtics have gutted out a 7-3 record despite outsourcing opponents by just 18 points total. They have four wins by five or fewer points. Scrounging games you maybe shouldn't pays off in playoff seeding.
Pritchard is active on defense, with a knack for anticipating when it is safe to gamble for steals. Turn your back on him in some location Pritchard deems non-threatening, and beware a Pritchard sneak.
Pritchard is leaning toward Rose before Rose goes into that patented spin. He knew what was coming.
There are guys who read the game at such a high level -- and move fast enough -- that for them, gambling isn't really gambling. They have an edge. They count cards, basically. Manu Ginobili was a card-counter. What was reckless for most was not so for him because he operated one step ahead.
Pritchard might be a card-counter. He's averaging two steals per 36 minutes -- an elite number.
This rookie class has been a lot of fun!
10. Portland's broadcast is on drugs
Some gimmicky alternate camera angles have grown on me. The floor-level shot from the corner hammers home how fast these dudes move through tight spaces.
But Portland's crew must be on some serious, umm, stuff, because it seems they are trying to make my stomach turn:
I'm not sure what is technically happening there, but the camera appears to veer sideways and zoom in and out at the same time. I don't want to feel like I'm watching "The Blair Witch Project" during an NBA game.
The Blazers will sometimes transition from this angle right into a top-down aerial view that swirls and shifts.
Less is more! Just let us watch the game.