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          What James Harden means for Luka Doncic's superstar turning point

          • Mike SchmitzJan 15, 2021, 07:10 AM ET

          At just 21 years old, Luka Doncic is already reaching levels of offensive dominance touched only by James Harden, the most efficient high-usage shot creator in NBA history. Before his trade to the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, Harden cracked the code to NBA defenses by splashing step-back 3s, baiting defenders into fouls at an incredible rate, absorbing contact going to the rim, tossing pinpoint lobs to bigs and spraying the ball out to shooters.

          Doncic is entering that same rare tier. He is averaging 27.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists through nine games -- the only player in the league to hit those marks. The Mavs are on a five-game win streak, and Doncic appears to have played his way into game shape after a slow start. Yet, in order to put up those numbers, Doncic also leads the NBA in usage rate, time of possession (9.3 seconds), average dribbles per touch and pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, while ranking second in isolations per 100, behind only Harden, per Second Spectrum tracking.

          Harden wasn't able to bring a title to Houston during his near decade-long run despite putting up video game numbers on incredible volume. There are plenty of reasons for this, many of which were out of Harden's control. But as Doncic enters a turning point on his path to his superstar peak, how different can and should the best version of Luka look compared to the now-former Rockets guard?

          Doncic's evolving differences from Harden

          Midrange and post game

          In his first four games of the season, Doncic's step-back abandoned him. He was posting a mere 23.5% effective field goal percentage (eFG) on 17 step-backs in December, per Second Spectrum, which forced him to do more damage inside the arc with his size and touch -- likely a blessing in disguise.

          Last season, Doncic attempted just 1.17 midrange jumpers per game with a 37.7 eFG%. With teams either waiting on his left-hand step-back or right-hand drive to the rim, he proved more predictable at times, especially when he wasn't in peak shape. This season, Doncic has almost tripled his midrange attempts to 3.11 per game with an eFG of 46.4%, which ranks in the top 20 among the league's 50 high-volume players. He looks comfortable in those spots in pick-and-roll against drop coverages, and that bodes well for his playoff future. Those are ultimately the shots defenses want to give up in playoff crunch time and ones the Rockets didn't want to take.

          Conversely, Doncic is owning midrange areas with turnarounds. With Kristaps Porzingis out for most of the season, Luka leads the Mavericks in post touches. Whether it's a designed catch just off the block or him simply dribbling smaller defenders to his spot inside the arc, Doncic has become reliable either sweeping through to draw a foul or dropping in turnarounds. Here, he makes Paul George look small before splashing the one-legged, back-shoulder fallaway.

          Then there's the counter: showcasing incredible footwork to set up the back-shoulder fade only to eventually shot-fake and step through for the finish. We saw glimpses of this previously, but it's even more of a weapon now.

          This left-to-right crossover also has become a simple yet effective counter to his typical moves. He's playing with a little better rhythm off of hang dribbles:

          Doncic's primary move appears back to usual form, as he's now up to a 54.55% eFG on 33 January step-backs. If he can somehow stabilize the step-back 3 by being more selective, continue to build on the midrange/midpost game and keep adding counters off the dribble, Doncic figures to eclipse the 30-point-per-game mark sooner than later.

          And these more diverse ways of easily generating offense -- as opposed to dribbling out the clock and hoisting it up -- could help Doncic stay fresh come playoff time, unlike Harden.

          Seeing over the top of the defense

          Doncic's sheer size at 6-foot-8 allows him to see over the top of the defense like few other jumbo playmakers outside of LeBron James, giving him an even higher ceiling as a playmaker than Harden (an elite passer in his own right). This one-handed corner skip out of pick-and-roll is a pass only a few NBA players can complete accurately, and a big contributing factor is Doncic's size.

          Although Doncic too often goes into an unnecessary isolation, he at least has the ability to read the weak side in unison, unleashing these soccer-style overhead looks to the corner shooter.

          Doncic does this when teams blitz him in pick-and-roll, and he's outstanding at looking off tagging defenders to either hit the roll man in stride or create an extra second for a shooter. Because of his size -- and the fact that he grew up playing a more European, ball-moving style in Spain -- Doncic is wired to make the right play, even if it comes after too many dribbles.

          The size, touch, creativity and passing remind some of Larry Bird. In today's game, it's LeBron who's the archetype for Doncic. For Doncic to even come close to entering that conversation, he'd have to really start taking his physical development seriously, like James.

          Doncic's pre-draft skeptics questioned his individual work ethic and that has been on display at times with his conditioning. He needs to improve there, but the court vision certainly helps make up for it.

          Glimpses of defensive activity

          The Mavericks have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. Primarily, the addition of Josh Richardson, James Johnson, and Willie Cauley-Stein (who joined midseason last year) is the driving force in the improvement. Rookie Josh Green is a high-energy defender. Maxi Kleber is one of the league's most underrated defenders. When healthy, Porzingis' shot-blocking has clear value.

          But Doncic also appears to be more dialed in than in the past, and at least shows the glimpses necessary to believe that, come crunch time in the playoffs, he's more than capable of getting a stop. He'll still ball watch, give up lanes to the rim or forget to box out. But Doncic played one of his best defensive games of his career in a road win over Charlotte on Wednesday, collecting 4 blocks and 2 steals to go along with 13 boards. He showed excellent effort shedding screens to recover and block pull-ups from Devonte Graham and Gordon Hayward. He even dove on the floor to save a loose ball and ignite a fast break.

          He expends too much offensive energy to ever be a true two-way stopper like Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler. But, as I wrote in October of 2017, "It's natural to question the defensive upside of European guard/wing prospects, especially given how strong and athletic those positions are in the NBA, but Doncic has proven that he has the tools and mentality to at least be adequate and more than just a one-sided player."

          Key next steps

          Even with unprecedented productivity for a player his age, Doncic is at an important point in his career. For him to offer the Mavericks roster flexibility and the chance to build a title contender, he'll have to improve in a couple of key areas that Harden mostly ignored.

          Becoming an off-ball threat

          Priority No. 1 for Doncic should be to become a more consistent and willing spot-up shooter.

          Prior to Wednesday's blowout win over Charlotte, Doncic had made just 2 of 12 catch-and-shoot jumpers through eight games. Last season, Doncic connected on 23 catch-and-shoot jumpers in 67 games.

          Watch Doncic in a pregame workout over the years and it's no surprise that Doncic isn't yet an efficient catch-and-shoot marksman. Practicing efficient shot preparation and game-like reps has never been his forte. So eager to go for the knockout punch with a late-clock step-back jumper, Doncic has turned too many rhythm 3s into step-backs or dribbled into an isolation.

          At the 2017 FIBA Eurobasket, he shined as an impactful off-ball contributor -- hitting standstill shots, attacking closeouts and reading scrambling defenses. Alongside Goran Dragic, Doncic averaged 1.56 points per possession on 39 spot-up possessions, looking comfortable stepping into catch-and-shoot 3s with a speedier release than you see today. Head coach Igor Kokoskov even ran hammer screens to spring Doncic open for corner 3s. Through 307 minutes this season, Doncic has yet to attempt a corner 3, per Second Spectrum data.

          Both Harden and Doncic are special with the ball in their hands, and the fact that Doncic ranks fourth in the NBA in points per chance when he touches the ball -- behind only Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard and LeBron -- speaks to his effectiveness. But even arguably the greatest of all time in James needed other ball handlers like Kyrie Irving and Dwyane Wade or bigs like Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh to win titles. The long-term questions regarding Luka will become: Is this level of volume sustainable? Can Doncic lead the league in usage, touches and generate so much of Dallas' offense without running out of gas like Harden did at times in the playoffs?

          I've always felt that Doncic has been his best self when he's alongside another ball handler who can both spot shoot and go get a bucket. Doncic helped lead Slovenia to a European Championship alongside Dragic. Can Josh Richardson be that guy? With Real Madrid, as Doncic's step-back started falling more, the ball stuck a little longer each possession. During the 2016-17 season, he led all of high-level Europe in finishing possessions with fewer than four seconds on the shot clock.

          While it was clearly a mistake, the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings passed on Doncic in large part because they didn't like the fit alongside ball handlers Devin Booker and De'Aaron Fox. In Dallas, the Mavericks could give Doncic the ball, surround him with shooting and defenders and watch the magic unfold. But for Doncic to win a championship someday, he'll likely have to be more malleable -- someone other stars feel like they can fit alongside. He can start by becoming a more efficient spot-up shooter.

          One key reason Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are so effective is the fact that they're incredibly dynamic both on and off the ball. Durant is maybe the most versatile star in the league. No elite guard has ever moved better off the ball than Curry. So as Doncic progresses in his career, it's up to him to evolve into more of an asset when he's not isolating.

          The Mavericks will play a role here, too, and Harden is a good example of why.

          Harden was an excellent catch-and-shoot player in his final season in Oklahoma City alongside Durant and Russell Westbrook on a team that made it to the NBA Finals. Harden finished in the 97th percentile on catch-and-shoot jump shots on almost 200 attempts, according to Synergy Sports.

          In Houston, Harden had free rein. The Rockets often looked the other way if Harden was out of shape or dominated the ball to no end. For Doncic, it's important that he regains some of that spot shooting that we saw alongside Dragic, which should materialize with Porzingis back in the lineup. The Mavs are doing a good job of trying to get Doncic catching on the move more often, even using him as a screener from time to time.

          But Doncic can still get better as a cutter and move with more urgency. Watching how Harden adjusts to playing alongside Durant and Kyrie Irving could give us an early look at how Doncic will look when faced with the same situation someday, even if Doncic is already far more willing to move without the ball at this stage.

          Finding a balance

          Although he's averaging the second-most isolations per 100 possessions this season behind Harden, Doncic actually ranks 22nd of 24 high-volume players in points per direct iso, ahead of only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Russell Westbrook, per Second Spectrum. Last season, Doncic ranked eighth in isolations per 100 possessions league-wide and seventh in points per direct iso among 35 high-usage players.

          Doncic's early shooting struggles are partially to blame for his dip in isolation productivity. Because he wasn't in peak shape early on, he was more willing to let defenses off the hook by settling for jumpers. Teammates also left a fair number of assists on the table.

          Doncic still leads the NBA in touches with more than 10 dribbles at 150-plus. Yet, predictably, the Mavs as a whole are far more effective when he uses 10 dribbles or fewer, generating 1.072 points per chance as opposed to 0.987. You can see the frustration in some teammates when Doncic turns to hero ball, making it less likely the supporting cast will knock down an open look after he dances around for 15 seconds.

          As a scorer, Doncic is actually more effective relative to the rest of the NBA on shots in which he uses 10 or more dribbles, yet the supporting cast clearly loses interest on those possessions. This has been a question about Doncic since scouts really started digging in on him. It takes a lot of dribbles for him to get to an efficient shot against an elite defender. Is that sustainable deep into the playoffs, and will he adjust his style when he's paired with other high-level players?

          Topping out as being just "as good as Harden" would mean being a top-three perennial MVP candidate -- an incredible accomplishment. Harden came painfully close to toppling maybe the greatest single-season team ever. He certainly belongs on this greatest of all time list.

          But Luka is on track to belong in this elite tier as well. That's why these questions matter. A well-rounded Doncic is more likely to creep up in those all-time rankings and win a few championships. A version of him who embraces the limits Harden pushed in Houston could fall short of those lofty aspirations.