Big NBA draft questions: What scouts want to see from top prospects

The 2021 NBA draft cycle promises to be the most unusual of its kind, with restrictions on the NBA side and postponements and cancellations throughout college basketball making for a high degree of difficulty for evaluators.

With that in mind, ESPN's draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz touch on a range of draft topics during the all-important conference portion of the college hoops season, from the unique ways teams are approaching scouting (including the single-destination NCAA tournament), to the expectations of top-pick candidates Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley, to the ways Kentucky's struggles and Gonzaga's dominance have impacted the draft forecasts for the draft prospects on those teams:

How are NBA scouts approaching the evaluation of this class?

Givony: It appears that this could very well be the least-scouted draft in recent memory in terms of live evaluations. NBA teams have already missed out on significant talent evaluation opportunities over the spring, summer and fall. Since then, they've been severely limited in their ability to scout college and international games as well. Some teams have told their scouts to stay off the road entirely, while others have told staff members to focus only on local and regional games, leaving huge swaths of this class to be covered only on video, television or on digital platforms like Synergy Sports Technology.

Most high-level front-office decision-makers who are allowed in the practice facility and around their NBA team (considered Tier 1 and Tier 2) are currently not attending college games in person. Going to a college game means leaving the Tier 1 or 2 protocol and requires negative COVID-19 tests for six straight days to get back in.

Other NBA scouts and some executives who are not in Tiers 1 or 2 are still attending some college and international games, just in far smaller numbers than in the past and with much less travel. In November, the NBA lifted its moratorium on scouts being allowed to attend games that were closed to the general public. Provided all teams are given equal opportunity to attend, the decision to allow NBA talent evaluators into the building now lies with individual college programs and international basketball teams, even for games without fans. Practices remain off limits.

Executives I've spoken to say they miss having the opportunity to arrive at games early and eyeball players courtside as they go through their pregame warm-up routines, helping them get a better feel for players' body types, physical potential, shooting mechanics and work habits. They typically use this time to reconnect with college coaches, staff members, media and fellow NBA scouts to gather background intel and hear the latest gossip around the respective programs and college basketball world.

Because of the different tier system based on NBA protocols, executives also have been limited in their ability to gather with other colleagues from their own teams due to the protocols that are in place, nullifying in-person scouting meetings that can be important for brainstorming, dialogue and consensus-building. These meetings have for the most part moved online.

Several executives admit that they've found video scouting to be productive in a different manner -- being able to watch four or five games in a day rather than spending 36 hours traveling to and from a venue to watch a single contest allows them to consume significantly more possessions of each player than they otherwise would have been afforded. Zoom calls, texts and phone conversations with trusted contacts are the next best thing for intel gathering, and many have enjoyed the comfort of working from home and spending time with their families rather than spending weeks living out of a suitcase.

As we get into the spring, teams may change their strategies on how to evaluate draft prospects. That will likely depend on how their own teams perform, the feel they have for players on their draft board and realities of the scouting constraints. Regardless, the way this draft is evaluated will be very different from 2020 or 2019, and every team will come up with their own methods for how to weather the restrictions and find advantages wherever they can.

What are evaluators looking for from the current 1-2 of Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley?

Schmitz: The only player in the country to average at least 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, 1 block and 1 steal per 40 minutes, Cade Cunningham has backed up his No. 1 status through 10 games with Oklahoma State. Yet, scouts will want to see the rangy 6-8 guard remain efficient and consistent amid what figures to be a rigorous Big 12 schedule. After a light nonconference slate, the Cowboys have suffered three agonizing losses over the past four games, falling to TCU, Texas and West Virginia by a total of five points. It doesn't get any easier from here, as Oklahoma State's remaining schedule still features bouts with four top-20 teams.

Cunningham ranks ninth among our top 100 prospects in usage rate and relies a fair amount on his 220-pound physicality. Can Cunningham lead an Oklahoma State team not exactly loaded with talent to the NCAA tournament (if deemed eligible) or will he run out of gas along the way? Whether or not he can remain efficient as the lead shot creator throughout such a difficult schedule will give NBA executives a clearer picture as to his pro outlook. Can Cunningham be the primary ball handler over the course of 82 games like a Luka Doncic or is he better served alongside a more traditional point guard?

While I don't have that many questions about his ability to function in an on-ball role with the benefit of NBA spacing and talent around him, Cunningham's naysayers would question his burst with the ball, especially against elite wing defenders. With that in mind, we'll keep a close eye on how Cunningham looks against teams such as Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and Arkansas, four of which rank in the top 12 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

Although they didn't match up that often during their first meeting, Texas Tech's Terrence Shannon Jr. is the type of physical wing defender Cunningham will face in the NBA, and the Red Raiders are a handful as the No. 3 defense in the country. Also a top-five defense, Texas is loaded with length and quickness, particularly fellow 6-9 freshman and super-athlete Greg Brown. Kansas' 6-5 guards Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji make up one of the better defensive backcourts in the conference and will test Cunningham with their ball pressure. Then there's Baylor, which has one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in Davion Mitchell and 6-5 defensive stalwart Mark Vital. Arkansas guard Moses Moody also has NBA length (7-0 wingspan) and will be a good barometer for Cunningham.

I would expect Cunningham to take his lumps at times efficiency-wise, but he impacts the game in so many ways as a passer, rebounder and defensive playmaker even when he isn't scoring. If he is able to power through the rest of the season, lead the Cowboys to more wins than expected and answer critics' questions about creating against elite athleticism, Cunningham could emerge as the runaway top pick. As it stands now, the race is still open.

As for Mobley, scouts will be watching to see if he can kick it up a notch with his offensive aggression and defensive dominance, as he ranks just 27th in our top 100 in defensive rebound percentage and is coming off a 2-point, 5-rebound, 30-minute game against Utah in which he attempted zero field goals. In a vacuum, Mobley is exactly what every NBA team wants in a big man as he can protect the rim with outstanding timing, guard pick-and-roll, handle, pass, shoot 3s and finish with feathery touch at 7-0 with a 7-4 wingspan. Bigs can be tough to evaluate on a congested college floor with sometimes spotty guard play, and even if you'd like him to be more aggressive at times, Mobley's feel is a plus. But scouts are still learning whether the 19-year-old will be best off as a high-level starter or if he'll be able to generate his own offense later in his career. The answer to that question should dictate whether he goes No.1 overall.

It's a light year for the Pac-12 prospect-wise, especially in the frontcourt, but the thin-framed Mobley will still be tested by bigs such as Stanford's Oscar da Silva, bouncy Washington State shot-blocker Efe Abogidi, Arizona's Jordan Brown and Oregon's Eugene Omoruyi, among others. How high Mobley goes in the draft is less about who he faces and more about whether he's able to find another gear on the defensive backboards, buy into being an elite defensive anchor, which he has the elite instincts to do, and add more ways to generate offense for himself. With all that said, Mobley's floor is incredibly high given his tools, two-way versatility, agility, feel for the game, excellent touch and modern fit. Even with a few uneven performances, teams remain enamored with his long-term potential.

This Kentucky group has underperformed dramatically -- what's going on with their prospects?

Givony: It's still too early to draw too many definitive conclusions. Clearly there aren't very many positives to take away from what we've seen so far, and that's reflected in the way that Brandon Boston Jr. (No. 3 in the preseason, now No. 15) and Terrence Clarke (No. 15 preseason, now No. 26) have slid in our projections. On the positive side, Isaiah Jackson was not a top-30 recruit and was not projected to be one-and-done originally, but now finds himself at No. 14.

NBA teams have been burned in the past by undervaluing Kentucky players (including Jamal Murray, Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker, Tyler Herro, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Keldon Johnson) who later proved to be far better prospects than what they had shown in college. The hope among optimists is that Boston's inability to show anything beyond small glimmers of what made him such a coveted prospect in high school lies more in Kentucky's archaic offense, poorly constructed roster and his own lack of physical strength than deal-breaking talent shortcomings.

Those same mitigating factors didn't save Tyrese Maxey from dropping from the projected No. 6 pick around this time last year to eventually going No. 21 in the 2020 draft, meaning Boston certainly has more room to slide if he doesn't find a way to be more productive.