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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
Although the 2022 NBA draft is at least 18 months away, teams are monitoring next year's class closely. It's important for NBA executives to get a baseline for the strength of the class and how valuable draft picks might be moving forward -- especially as we approach the NBA trade deadline on March 25.
NBA teams currently have no idea when the 2021 NBA draft will be conducted, though it is expected to be held after the NBA Finals, currently scheduled for August 2021. The hope is that a somewhat normal summer of scouting can occur this offseason, which would help make up for the many lost talent-evaluation opportunities of the past nine months.
Meanwhile, it seems clear that a bottleneck is emerging in the college ranks that could impact both the 2021 and 2022 drafts. Because of the uncertain impact of the pandemic on the 2020 draft and the 2020-21 season, many college players elected not to enter the draft last spring, and even more ultimately pulled their name out of the draft.
We've seen that pay off in a major way for players such as Corey Kispert (Gonzaga), James Bouknight (UConn), David Johnson (Louisville) and others, all likely second-rounders originally who are now emerging as potential lottery picks. Upperclassmen such as Luka Garza (Iowa), Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois) and Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky) -- all of whom might have gone undrafted in 2020 -- are making strong cases as first-rounders, as well. As the season moves on, other experienced and highly productive college players are certain to emerge and claim spots in the 2021 draft.
On the flip side, the lack of normal preparation in terms of early practices, exhibitions and low-major nonconference competition that the freshman class usually experiences has taken a toll on performance. Outside of Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State), Evan Mobley (USC) and Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga), most of the 2020 freshman class is underachieving badly relative to expectations, which will surely mean that some need to return to school. It looks likely at this stage that potential one-and-done freshmen such as Caleb Love (North Carolina), DJ Steward (Duke), Moussa Cisse (Memphis), Joshua Primo (Alabama) and Makur Maker (Howard) might be best suited returning to school and trying their luck as sophomores.
An older, more experienced draft class is good news for college basketball and NBA teams alike, and that's reflected in a major way in this 2022 mock draft, which features a record low number of one-and-done prospects.
Part of that is due to lack of exposure. While evaluators normally would have spent most of the spring and summer crisscrossing the globe to watch FIBA tournaments, USA Basketball camps and AAU and high school events, we've been stuck at home -- just like many of the prospects hoping to be drafted -- as virtually every domestic and international event was canceled.
Recruiting rankings won't be as accurate in this environment, as players simply haven't been seen much in live action -- and certainly not in more organized settings going up against other top-level competition. Things will get sorted out, eventually, once players get to college and the cream rises to the top; but projecting what the draft will look like 18-plus months in advance is not going to be the most fruitful endeavor at this juncture. For now, we're erring on the conservative side, mostly ranking college players and international prospects for whom we've been able to get a solid feel. - Jonathan Givony
Note: While the 2022 NBA draft is too far away to reasonably predict the order, we're using ESPN's Basketball Power Index here to help show picks owed and owned.
Chet Holmgren | 7-0 | PF/C | Uncommitted | Age: 18.6
Mock rank: No. 1
Holmgren is in a class of his own as a distinctively skilled 7-footer who checks every box NBA teams look for in a top pick. The lanky teenager first caught our eye in October 2019 at a USA Basketball camp, and since then, he has morphed into the type of shot-blocking, 3-shooting, ballhandling big man the modern NBA covets.
Holmgren's intrigue starts with his rim protection, where he utilizes his 7-foot-4 wingspan, big hands, stellar instincts, remarkable timing, quick leaping ability and outstanding technique to put a lid on the rim. From a fundamentals, timing and toughness standpoint, the 18-year-old is arguably the best shot-blocker I've ever evaluated at this stage of a prospect's development. His verticality technique is already elite. Maybe most importantly, Holmgren plays with a mean streak you don't always see from players with his wiry, 190-pound frame. He isn't afraid to take a hard foul, and he will challenge anyone at the rim, talking trash in the process.
Chet Holmgren crashes the lane and cleans up inside with a two-handed putback jam.
Holmgren still has questions to answer on the defensive glass and as a post defender given his incredibly light frame. Is he strong enough to play heavy minutes at center in the NBA or is he best suited at the 4? And if he is playing as a 4, is he quick enough to chase around a lot of the combo forwards who close games in the NBA? More long and fluid than explosive, even if Holmgren is still developing as a perimeter defender and defensive rebounder, the fact that he is tough, long and agile bodes well for him in the long term.
Already a game-changer defensively, some of Holmgren's offensive highlights are jaw-dropping. He is more than comfortable taking a defensive rebound coast-to-coast in transition, weaving through traffic with incredible grace for his size. He is even capable of knocking down hesitation 3s in the half court like a lot of the NBA's best wings. I initially viewed Holmgren as a Kristaps Porzingis type of big, but that would be underselling his ballhandling and toughness. You could argue that he is further along than a prospect like Evan Mobley was at Holmgren's age, and Mobley is getting strong consideration as the top pick in what's considered a loaded 2021 draft.
Along with his rim protection, Holmgren's floor spacing is his most NBA-ready skill. He shoots an effortlessly easy ball from 3 with great touch and rotation, and he even shows some potential on the move. He should be able to space the floor as a lob-catcher, as well. The Minnesota native can still improve as a facilitator -- he has been more wired to score from what we've seen on film and in person -- but he isn't short on offensive feel, and he should ultimately become an asset as a distributor given his all-around feel for the game.
Chet Holmgren, the No. 1 recruit for the class of 2021 in the ESPN Top 100, shows off the handles on a coast-to-coast play vs. YPSI Prep.
Simply put, Holmgren has very few holes in his game and still possesses tremendous upside because his body is still at such an early stage of development. The biggest uncertainty for Holmgren, who played on the Under Armour circuit, is where he'll spend next season. Although his father, Dave, played four years at Minnesota in the 1980s, Holmgren remains uncommitted and should be a major priority for the G-League Ignite team. Holmgren also played his high school basketball at Minnehaha Academy in Minnesota with Gonzaga star and potential 2021 No. 1 pick Jalen Suggs. Minnesota and Gonzaga are both in the recruiting mix for Holmgren, but wherever he ends up, scouts will come in droves to watch a player who has become the front-runner to be the top pick in 2022. -- Mike Schmitz
Yannick Nzosa | 7-0 | C | Unicaja Malaga | Age: 17.1
Mock rank: No. 5
The youngest player in the 2022 mock draft, Nzosa has been testing himself against the highest level of competition of any player in the class, carving out a rotation role in the Spanish ACB and EuroCup with Unicaja Malaga.
Starting his very first pro game of the season, the Congolese player became just the third 16-year-old (Luka Doncic, Ricky Rubio) in ACB history to score in double figures back in September, and then Nzosa matched that feat again a week later.
His minutes and role have fluctuated as the season has progressed, but Nzosa has dropped impressive glimpses of talent every time he has stepped onto the floor, rarely looking out of place.
Averaging 2.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes, Nzosa is a game-changer defensively -- even at the highest levels of European basketball -- giving his team a lift with his energy and skills every time he steps on the court. He covers ground exceptionally with outstanding mobility, regularly hedging pick-and-rolls well past the 3-point line and then recovering back to the paint with terrifying closing speed. He gets off the floor quickly and has stellar ability as a rim protector to go along with a huge standing reach.
Offensively, Nzosa does not have a particularly high skill level or the frame to bang consistently with grown men, but he is finding ways to contribute regardless by beating opposing centers down the floor in transition, crashing the offensive glass and finishing pick-and-rolls. He has reliable hands, the ability to finish with soft touch using both hands and good shooting mechanics from the free throw line.
Only weighing about 215 pounds, Nzosa's frame is the biggest thing he'll have to work on long term. His lack of strength is an issue in guarding the post and crashing the defensive glass, as he gets moved around relatively easily. As his career moves on, scouts will want to see Nzosa continue to improve his skill level and potentially show some range on his jump shot. For now, the fact that he is playing and contributing at this level is impressive enough. - Givony
Peyton Watson | 6-8 | SF | UCLA commit | Age: 18.2
Mock rank: No. 6
Still underrated nationally, Watson is a legitimate candidate to hear his name called toward the top of the 2022 draft if he continues on his current trajectory. A late bloomer who didn't start until his junior year of high school at California's Long Beach Poly, Watson stood only 6-foot-5¾ and weighed 170 pounds at USA basketball camp a year and a half ago. Now at least 6-foot-8, the rangy wing should be a pleasant surprise for NBA scouts who likely haven't seen him yet. His late-blooming status along with the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic have limited his national exposure and wiped away his AAU season, and his high school season on hold.
Fortunately, I was able to watch him play 5-on-5 with several 2020 draft prospects a couple of months ago, and he was the best player on the floor despite being just 18. It left me thinking he had all the ingredients of a future top-5 pick. Having already seen him play a do-it-all role as a 6-foot-6 high school junior, I was blown away by Watson's talent and development. Watson is a shifty shot-creator with high shoulders, outstanding footwork, a smooth handle and the type of toughness wiry wings with his frame need to make it at the NBA level.
Thanks to his long strides, 7-foot wingspan, big reach and ability to change speeds and directions, Watson puts pressure on the rim in the open court and doesn't shy away from contact. Watson is comfortable with the ball in his hands, can create space to get to his jumper off the bounce and shows potential as a playmaker, with a solid, all-around feel for the game.
Watson is still on the streaky side as a perimeter shooter and doesn't have a ton of experience having to fit in alongside other elite players given his trajectory. With that said, he is versatile offensively and is a willing defender both on and off the ball, rotating from the weak side for blocks and working to contest on the perimeter. Given his light frame and late rise, Watson might take some time to get comfortable in the Pac-12, but he is the type of shot-creating wing NBA scouts yearn for. So long as he can put together a productive season at UCLA under Mick Cronin in 2021-22, Watson should be viewed as a potential top-10 pick with considerable upside. -- Schmitz
Terrence Shannon | 6-6 | SG/SF | Texas Tech | Age: 20.4
Mock rank: No. 11
Shannon is just entering the meat of Big 12 action and could very well end up being a 2021 NBA draft candidate, depending on how the rest of his season goes. Featuring an ideal physical profile for a wing prospect, Shannon looks the part on first glance, with good size, an excellent frame and impressive physical skills.
Shannon's defensive versatility is his most NBA-ready trait as arguably the best defender for the No. 1-ranked defense in college basketball. He creates plenty of turnovers with his quickness and activity, demonstrating willingness to sacrifice his body while stepping in for charges or pursuing loose balls. His ability to slide up and guard big men has allowed Texas Tech to put more skill around him, which is important considering how much of a struggle it is for the Red Raiders to put the ball in the basket at times.
Offensively, Shannon is a work in progress, as he is neither a consistent shot-creator nor a perimeter shooter, getting most of his offense playing off the ball. He is a career 31% 3-point shooter in college on a small number of attempts, although a recent flurry in Big 12 play (6-of-11 from 3 in his past two games) is something to monitor despite his funky shooting mechanics. He is extremely left-hand dominant as a ball handler and finisher, and he can be a last-resort passer who is prone to driving into brick walls.
Shannon will have plenty of opportunities to show he is worthy of being a first-round pick in 2021 in a loaded Big 12 slate. But if his offense remains inconsistent, another year in college might not be the worst idea to gain polish and experience and potentially make a run at being a top-20 pick -- as we currently project. - Givony
Justin Powell | 6-6 | PG/SG | Auburn | Age: 19.6
Mock rank: No. 16
With five-star recruit Sharife Cooper battling NCAA eligibility issues, Bruce Pearl has been forced to turn toward a much less heralded freshman guard in Powell to spearhead his offense and attempt to keep Auburn respectable.
The results have been about as good as one could expect, with Powell establishing himself as arguably the most impactful freshman in an SEC that enrolled eight five-star recruits.
Powell has excellent size for a guard at 6-foot-6 to go along with a strong frame and good athletic ability. Ambidextrous with his ballhandling and passing, he is exceptionally creative while probing the lane and generating offense for teammates, showing outstanding timing operating out of the pick-and-roll.
He is an excellent perimeter shooter, making 19 of 37 3-point attempts on the season while showing deep range on his pull-up jumper. Quick enough to create offense from a standstill, he has plenty of creativity with the way he finishes inside the arc, showing touch on his floaters extending out to the free throw line.
Defensively is where Powell has the biggest questions to answer long term, as he has really struggled to stay in front of quicker players so far this season and has often looked lost off the ball. That's to be expected, to an extent, considering his lack of experience and the fact he barely played in his final two years of high school due to injury and eligibility issues after transferring schools.
Auburn has played a somewhat soft schedule, which might cause some growing pains entering SEC competition. Powell's combination of size, skill and court savvy is enticing and will surely draw quite a bit of attention if he can continue to display the type of shot-making and playmaking instincts he has in his first eight games. - Givony
Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 | SG | Kansas | Age: 19.2
Mock rank: No. 17
Agbaji has been on NBA radars since the moment Kansas surprisingly elected to lift his redshirt and throw him into its rotation in the middle of Big 12 action back in January 2019.
He has been up and down since but appears to be finding some consistency as a junior, establishing himself as Kansas' second-leading scorer and its most versatile defender, all while hitting 42% of his 3-point attempts.
Agbaji's impressive frame and physical skills were always going to make him an NBA prospect, but it's taken him time to gain consistency with his shooting mechanics and become a more reliable decision-maker. While not much of a ball handler, Agbaji has become increasingly effective pulling up off the dribble when defenses go under on ball screens, and he has shown flashes of being capable of scoring off pindowns, as well.
While it's important for him to make open shots in order to stay on the floor, Agbaji's value in the NBA will always lie on the defensive end; at this stage, he is one of the most impactful defenders in the college game. He chases guards, wings and even some forwards tirelessly around the perimeter with his long arms and powerful build, containing opponents on and off the ball while also offering a steady dose of rim protection.
Agbaji will surely be in the mix to hear his name called in the 2021 draft and might have a tough decision ahead of him. Kansas' status with the NCAA and the ongoing investigation into recruiting violations could play a role in his decision. - Givony
Taevion Kinsey | 6-5 | SG | Marshall | Age: 20.8
Mock rank: No. 27
Somewhat off the radar in Conference USA, Kinsey is quietly putting together an All-America-caliber season, thus far, against admittedly weak competition.
One of the most explosive athletes in the college game, playing for one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, Kinsey has always been good for an impressive highlight, but his skill level is slowly starting to round into form during his junior season.
At his best in the open court, attacking closeouts and finishing lobs, Kinsey is putting up points in bunches this season and doing so very efficiently, at that -- even if he doesn't really have a consistent means of scoring in the half court. He is a reluctant 3-point shooter (career 32%), an average ball handler and an inconsistent decision-maker, but he has made major strides in every facet over the past few years and still has considerable room to grow.
He shows soft touch on his jumper, creating sharp separation from his defender while using his impressive leaping ability, and he has hit a sparkling 69% of his 2-pointers and 82% of his free throws on the season.
Defensively, Kinsey is rangy with his slides and active getting over the top of screens, and he shows his physical skills on occasion by getting in passing lanes and crashing the glass. With that said, his lack of strength and just average feel for the game are things he'll have to work hard to address in the future, as he has a tendency to stand around and lose his focus off the ball.
A fairly young junior, not turning 21 until the end of the season, Kinsey will need to show more consistency against better competition to establish himself as a first-round prospect, but his physicality and productivity have certainly put him on the radar of NBA scouts. - Givony
Kessler Edwards | 6-8 | SF/PF | Pepperdine | Age: 20.3
Mock rank: No. 34
Despite a recent dip in production, Edwards has captured the interest of NBA scouts this season thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame, stellar standstill shooting and age as a junior who doesn't turn 21 until August. Despite a robotic style of play, average feel for the game and somewhat stiff shooting mechanics, Edwards is automatic with his feet set, elevating over the top of closing-out defenders to the tune of 43% from distance and 89% from the free throw line this season. He isn't a fluid ball handler or a savvy passer, and he has benefited from playing the 4 and even some 5 at the West Coast Conference level, but he has still found a way to average 16.9 points in 32 minutes, including strong showings against San Diego State and UCLA.
Pepperdine's Kessler Edwards gets the ball in the paint and backs up his defender to the basket, then makes his move and gets the and-1 to drop.
Defensively, he has solid timing for blocks and uses his positional length to contest on the perimeter. Yet, he is very upright and a little stiff in the hips, so he doesn't quite project as a defensive stopper. Edwards also is still improving in the toughness department on the defensive glass. But the California native has taken a step each and every season at Pepperdine and looks like a real candidate to hear his name called during the 2022 draft as a 3-and-D combo forward. Strong in-conference showings against powerhouse Gonzaga could expedite that process. -- Schmitz
Dalano Banton | 6-8 | playmaker | Nebraska | Age: 21.1
Mock rank: No. 37
One of the most unique players in college basketball, Banton has piqued the interest of NBA scouts, averaging 14.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 31 minutes playing exclusively point guard at 6-foot-8. Banton was unable to separate himself as a freshman at Western Kentucky and sat out last season after transferring to the Cornhuskers, but the 21-year-old Toronto native has resurfaced in a big way. He has shined with his ballhandling, court vision and defensive instincts under Fred Hoiberg.
Although Nebraska is 3-5 and his numbers are partially a product of his role, Banton is one of only three players since 2007 to average at least 18 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per 40 minutes, joining Ben Simmons (LSU) and John Konchar (Purdue Fort Wayne).
With high shoulders, a 6-foot-9 wingspan, an 8-foot-8 standing reach and a lean frame, Banton glides with the ball in his hands, picking apart defenses with his court vision. With that said, Banton isn't overly explosive or physical and faces questions about his finishing and half-court shot-creation at the next level, evident by his 49.1% shooting rate on 2-pointers, relying a lot on touch shots in the paint. Banton's long-term upside will be dictated by the type of shooter he can become.
As the NBA is loaded with elite ball handlers, Banton's best chance at sticking is by becoming a reliable spot-up shooter, allowing him to function as more of a playmaking wing and secondary ball handler. A career 25% 3-point shooter, Banton shoots a set shot from distance and isn't much of a pull-up threat, yet his 74% mark on free throws this season suggests he could become an average standstill shooter in time.
Banton also will have to improve his body to survive defensively against elite wings at the next level. However, he is able to have an impact on that end thanks to his reach, instincts and anticipation, regularly making plays off the ball and on the glass. If Banton can find a way to stabilize his shooting stroke, turn Nebraska into a winner and prove he can be just as effective off the ball as on it, he could emerge as a 2022 sleeper and potential first-round pick given his unique combination of size and skill. -- Schmitz
RJ Nembhard | 6-5 | PG/SG | TCU | Age: 21.7
Mock rank: No. 46
Nembhard has been one of the Big 12's breakout players, thus far, leading a 7-2 TCU team in points (18.4) and assists (4.9) as a redshirt junior. Although currently in COVID-19 protocol, Nembhard already has a handful of banner performances under his belt, headlined by a 21-point, 4-rebound, 4-assist game in a win over Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, knocking down the game-winning jumper in the process.
Standing 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Nembhard was more of a utility guard when he joined the Horned Frogs. But after playing more on ball last year, the 21-year-old has evolved into a legitimate combo guard who has shined playing heavy minutes on the ball for Jamie Dixon. Groomed as a point guard prior to college, Nembhard looks quite comfortable in the pick-and-roll, hitting the roll man and weakside shooter from different angles, even off of a live dribble at times. He isn't the shiftiest ball handler, and he can be a bit turnover-prone, but Nembhard's evolution from role player to high-volume lead guard has him in the NBA draft conversation.
On top of his improved floor game, it's his shooting progression that has allowed him to make such a big jump, going from 30% from 3 as a freshman to 32% as a sophomore to now 40.5% on 4.6 attempts per game. Nembhard doesn't have the most natural stroke, with a somewhat violent ball dip before he gets into his motion. But he has great shot preparation in spot-up situations and touch on floaters, and he shows the ability to rise up off the dribble for midrange spots and from 3 on occasion. Nembhard also has two-way potential given his tools. He doesn't have the flashiest style of play, but Nembhard's productivity, gradual improvement and winning impact has him on track to potentially hear his name called in 2022 -- or potentially sooner -- if he keeps progressing like he has. -- Schmitz
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.