What does an extension for Paul George mean for the six-time All-Star and the LA Clippers?
George could have been an unrestricted free agent next summer, when both he and fellow Clippers star Kawhi Leonard held player options. Instead, he has replaced that option with a new four-year maximum extension that will keep him under contract until at least 2024, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
As the Clippers try to move past the disappointment of the 2020 playoffs and make good on their championship potential, where do things now stand? Let's take a look.
PG: Still good at basketball
All the "Pandemic P" talk during the playoffs overshadowed the fact that George actually had an impressive regular season given he was coming off a pair of shoulder surgeries that sidelined him for the first 11 games. George hit a career-high 41.2% of his 3-point attempts and also posted the best true shooting percentage of his career (58.9%).
The decline in George's scoring average from a career-high 28.0 PPG in 2018-19 to 21.5 can be traced largely to more conservative usage. Due to the late start to the season and a hamstring strain in January, George averaged just 29.6 MPG, his lowest mark since his rookie campaign (excluding his injury-shortened 2014-15 season). Accounting for that, George's 26.2 points per 36 minutes were down only slightly from the 27.4 he averaged in 2018-19 and were the second best of his career.
It seems like not even George realizes how well things went. In a preview of an upcoming episode of the "All the Smoke" podcast with former Clippers Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson, George lamented that former coach Doc Rivers used him "like a Ray Allen or like a JJ Redick -- all pindowns."
"I can do it. But that ain't my game," George said. "I need some flow. I need some mixes of pick-and-rolls. I need some post-ups. Just different touches. ... And so, it was just, that last season was just hard overall."
Second Spectrum tracking numbers don't bear out George's criticism. He actually ran more pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions (26.8) than in any other season since camera tracking began leaguewide in 2013-14, having never previously topped 20 per 100 possessions. That declined a bit to 20.8 during the playoffs, but during the postseason George came off fewer off-ball screens per 100 possessions (17.3) than in any previous year. By comparison, Redick averaged 36.6 off-ball screens per 100 possessions in his four playoffs with the Clippers.
Not-so-"Playoff P"?
The playoffs were obviously a different story for George, who struggled even before the Clippers lost the final three games of their semifinals series with the Denver Nuggets to be eliminated.
After shooting 10-of-47 (21%) in Games 2 through 4 of the Clippers' opening-round win over the Dallas Mavericks, George opened up to reporters about facing anxiety and depression in the NBA's bubble. George played well in LA's losses to Denver in Games 5 and 6, combining for 59 points on 17-of-39 shooting with eight 3-pointers and 17 free throws in those games. But the lingering memory of his playoff run is a 4-of-16 effort in Game 7, where George missed nine of his 11 3-point attempts and his only free throw try.
It was George's second dreadful shooting performance in an elimination game in three years; he scored five points on 2-of-16 shooting in Game 6 of the 2018 first round as the Oklahoma City Thunder were eliminated by the Utah Jazz. Those subpar efforts have made the "Playoff P" moniker he applied to himself before the 2018 series an easy target on social media.
Over the course of his career, however, George has played better in the playoffs than expected based on his regular-season performance. He starred as the Indiana Pacers reached the 2014 Eastern Conference finals before losing for a third consecutive year to the LeBron James-led Miami Heat and nearly single-handedly dragged an undermanned Pacers team to a quarterfinals upset of the No. 2 seed Toronto Raptors in 2016, his penultimate year in Indiana.
Before the 2019-20 season, FiveThirtyEight's projections suggested George would be more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season. So I don't think there's much reason to expect George's performance to crumble in the postseason under what will likely be more normal circumstances in 2021.
Clippers lock in one star but must wait on the other
Extending George relieves some of the pressure on the Clippers for the upcoming season, after which both George and Leonard could have left in unrestricted free agency. They're unlikely to get a similar commitment from Leonard, who would have to pick up his 2021-22 player option to be eligible for an extension.
Even if he wants to stay with the Clippers, Leonard will be better off financially playing out the season, declining his player option and re-signing a new deal next summer using Early Bird rights. Because he'll have 10 years of experience, Leonard will move into the larger 35% max category, allowing him to make up to $39.3 million based on the current 2021-22 salary-cap projection -- a substantial raise on his $36 million player option.
Instead of signing a contract with the same structure as Leonard's back in 2018 when he became an unrestricted free agent, George instead re-signed with the Thunder for three years plus a player option. Although that structure delayed George getting to the 35% max, it facilitated the possibility of an extension. He traded off making a little less money this season for more long-term security.
By the time this extension kicks in, George will be 31, so the Clippers are certainly taking a risk of aging on the back end of the contract. Still, George seems like a good bet to maintain his value as he ages. George's size and skill won't fade, allowing him to compensate as his athleticism declines. It wouldn't surprise me if he eventually drifted from the wing to playing more of a combo forward role, to the extent positions matter on a Clippers team with multiple multiskilled players around the same height.
While the Clippers can't feel entirely comfortable until Leonard re-signs, they seem likely to retain him. Leonard chose to come home to Southern California and play for the Clippers, making this a different situation than with stars (including both George and Leonard himself) who have changed teams upon being traded.
If Leonard returns next year, the Clippers are well positioned to bring back their core and make changes via trades and by using the taxpayer midlevel exception. They'll have full Bird rights on sixth man Lou Williams and newcomer Luke Kennard, who will be a restricted free agent unless he and the team agree to an extension by Dec. 21. They'll also be able to offer Serge Ibaka up to a 20% raise if he declines a $9.7 million player option on the contract he just signed with the Clippers.
With raises for George, Leonard and presumably Kennard, the Clippers could go deep into the luxury tax. That shouldn't be a concern for a championship contender with one of the NBA's wealthiest owners in Steve Ballmer. Because the Clippers haven't yet paid the tax, they won't face stiffer penalties as a "repeater" until 2023-24 at the earliest.
There's still plenty for the Clippers to do between now and Leonard's potential free agency, including that little matter of playing the 2020-21 season. Still, I think the extension for George is a good sign both that the Clippers can keep their core together and that they're not overreacting to the disappointment of the 2020 playoffs.