Where do the Milwaukee Bucks go now that their reported sign-and-trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic has collapsed?
My ESPN colleague Adrian Wojnarowski reported Wednesday that the deal sending Bogdanovic to Milwaukee as a restricted free agent -- news that first broke late Monday night -- is no longer in play.
How does this affect Giannis Antetokounmpo's decision about his future? Can the Bucks continue to improve a roster that will include Jrue Holiday as part of a separate trade?
And what does this mean for Bogdanovic and the Sacramento Kings? Let's break down the implications.
More questions but more flexibility for Milwaukee
Ultimately, failing to land Bogdanovic might not be such a bad thing for the Bucks. Completing a sign-and-trade deal would have severely limited their options for filling out their roster. Teams that receive a player via sign-and-trade are hard capped at the tax apron, about $6.3 million greater than the luxury-tax line. Milwaukee would have completed the Bogdanovic trade with seven open roster spots and little ability to pay free agents more than the veteran's minimum.
Now, the Bucks will have more flexibility to retain or replace what was one of the league's best benches in 2019-20. Milwaukee faces a Friday deadline to decide whether to guarantee the $7 million 2020-21 salary of forward Ersan Ilyasova, who was headed to Sacramento in the reported trade. Ilyasova could be part of a different trade package or alternatively the Bucks could waive him, giving them more flexibility to use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
Using more than the $5.7 million taxpayer portion of the midlevel would put Milwaukee back in a hard cap situation but with fewer roster spots to fill, because that salary would now be divided among multiple players instead of simply Bogdanovic. Realistically, the Bucks should be able to use their full $9.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel and stay below the apron, which puts them back in play to re-sign starting shooting guard Wesley Matthews or replace him with a similar contributor.
It will be difficult for Milwaukee to build a starting five as strong as the one with Bogdanovic, who is a more complete offensive player than Matthews, fellow unrestricted free agent Pat Connaughton or Donte DiVincenzo (who also was headed to the Kings in the reported deal). The Bucks also could argue that having Bogdanovic signed long term was worth the restrictions on their roster this offseason.
Still, I think Milwaukee will have a better, deeper 2020-21 roster without Bogdanovic. In particular, the Bucks would have had difficulty finding a more physically skilled alternative to playing Brook Lopez at center -- something that could be important in the postseason. Marvin Williams filled that role for Milwaukee last season before announcing his retirement; and while the Bucks were able to get him for the veteran's minimum after Williams took a buyout from the Charlotte Hornets, I don't think Milwaukee can count on another value that good.
It's also important that Milwaukee holds on to DiVincenzo, who could eventually grow into the role the Bucks envisioned Bogdanovic playing in their starting lineup. DiVincenzo isn't yet in Bogdanovic's territory as an outside shooter, but DiVincenzo is a better defender and more than four years younger.
The looming question here is how Antetokounmpo views everything. Even if I'm right and Milwaukee is better off with depth than Bogdanovic, that won't play out in full until next summer -- well after Antetokounmpo's decision on whether to sign the supermax extension the Bucks can offer him through Dec. 21. (He also can re-sign for the supermax deal as an unrestricted free agent after next season.) There's nothing more important in Milwaukee right now than getting the two-time MVP signed long term, and it remains to be seen how the failure of this trade affects that.
Sacramento may be stuck
The sign-and-trade falling apart seems like worse news for the Kings. They've already signaled to the rest of the market that they didn't intend to keep Bogdanovic, meaning teams can aggressively pursue the restricted free agent.
Because Milwaukee was over the salary cap and unable to sign Bogdanovic outright, a sign-and-trade was the Bucks' only means of acquiring him. That allowed Sacramento to demand strong compensation in return in the form of DiVincenzo. If Bogdanovic finds another bidder with cap space, the Kings will face a difficult choice between matching an offer they don't like or letting Bogdanovic walk for nothing in return.
If the decision to trade Bogdanovic was an indication of how Sacramento feels about his value, then letting him leave is probably still a better move than overpaying to retain him. Although the Kings still wouldn't be able to create appreciable cap space this offseason without Bogdanovic's cap hold on their books, a new contract would affect their flexibility in future seasons, with De'Aaron Fox due for a new contract in 2021-22.
Bogdanovic likely to do well financially
Everything that makes this outcome disappointing for Sacramento works in reverse for Bogdanovic. Restricted free agents sometimes languish on the market because of the fear their former team will simply match any offer, tying up the other team's cap space while it waits out the decision. If other teams feel emboldened to pursue Bogdanovic, he should benefit from a hotter market.
The likely downside for Bogdanovic is not getting to play for a contending team. Of the teams with the ability to create cap space this offseason, the two 2020 playoff participants -- the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors -- are both disinclined to hand out long-term contracts this offseason because of their potential to have max cap space in the summer of 2021.
Barring another sign-and-trade, then, Bogdanovic is likely looking at the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets and New York Knicks for an offer sheet.