Lakers get: Dennis Schroder
Thunder get: Danny Green, 2020 first-round draft pick (No. 28)
Note: This expected trade can be formally agreed to in principle on Monday and finalized after the Lakers make their first-round pick (No. 28) on Wednesday.
Los Angeles Lakers: C
This deal feels unusually difficult to grade from the Lakers' perspective because of what we don't know about their prospects when free agency opens on Friday.
The reigning champs could have as many as seven rotation players hit unrestricted free agency, depending on the status of player options for Avery Bradley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo. Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris will be unrestricted free agents as well.
The uncertainty is particularly large in the backcourt, which is presumably why the Lakers targeted adding a guard. We saw during the 2020 playoffs when Rondo stepped into a larger role -- averaging 24.7 minutes per game, up from 20.5 during the regular season, and even more MPG (26.0) during the NBA Finals -- how useful it was for LeBron James to have a second playmaker to help carry the load. Schroder fits that bill.
If Schroder is indeed replacing Rondo, it's amusing because the veteran Rondo was a popular comparison for the German prospect when Schroder entered the NBA draft in 2013. They've evolved in different ways since then, with Schroder proving far more of a score-first point guard and a far better scorer in the NBA.
Rondo has never come close to touching the 18.9 points per game Schroder averaged last season (Rondo's career high is 13.7), while Schroder's decision-making and playmaking haven't proved as strong as advertised. He has topped out at 9.7 assists per 100 team plays in his career, a mark Rondo has beat 12 seasons running. Schroder is also a weaker defender than the engaged Rondo we saw at times during the postseason.
Just how well Schroder fits will depend in large part on whether last season's improvement as a shooter was a fluke. Having never previously shot better than league average from 3-point range (his career high was 35% in 2014-15), Schroder knocked down 38.5% of his attempts, pushing him above league average in true shooting percentage (.575) for the first time as well.
Schroder is a quality foul shooter (83% career), and his improvement is also explained in part by attempting more catch-and-shoot 3s than he had before. Per Second Spectrum tracking, Schroder is a career 37% shooter on catch-and-shoot attempts, as compared to 28% on pull-ups. Last season, a career-high 75% of his attempts were off the catch because he was playing more off the ball alongside Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
As compared to signing Rondo to a multiyear contract at age 34, Schroder is surely a better investment. Getting younger by dealing the 33-year-old Green for 27-year-old Schroder is also a positive for the league's oldest team last season, weighted by minutes played.
Still, this deal carries two big risks:
First, the Lakers have lost a wing option by dealing Green, their marquee addition in free agency last summer. Yes, I hear you, Lakers fans: Green was a disappointment in L.A.
By nature, 3-and-D wings tend to see their value fluctuate in the eyes of observers based on how often those 3s tend to go in. (Caldwell-Pope's Lakers career is pretty much a case study in that effect.) And last season, they didn't go in frequently enough for Green, who shot 37% during the regular season and slumped all the way to 34% during the playoffs. As a result, Green dropped behind Caldwell-Pope in the Lakers' wing pecking order and might have been behind Bradley had the latter not opted out of participating in the NBA bubble.
As we project forward to next season, however, Green's track record (he's a career 40% 3-point shooter and has hit 39% in the playoffs despite his recent high-profile struggles) makes him a far better bet as a shooter than Schroder. My SCHOENE projection system forecasts 39% 3-point shooting for Green in 2020-21 and 36% for Schroder.
Losing the 6-foot-6 Green also leaves the Lakers smaller on the wing. Caldwell-Pope is 6-foot-5 and Bradley (who may or may not return) is 6-foot-3 and better suited to defend the point guards with whom Schroder will now perhaps be matching up. So the second important free-agency variable is what wing with size the Lakers might be able to attract with their midlevel exception to replace Green.
The second risk the Lakers are taking is one of alternative cost, or opportunity cost. If they're committed to keeping Kyle Kuzma, this year's first-round pick was the Lakers' best trade chip, and Green their best expiring contract for matching salary. They now have that much less flexibility looking ahead to the trade deadline.
In value terms, the Lakers surely sold low on Green and appear to have bought high on Schroder. We'll find out in the next week or two whether the results of free agency justify that decision.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A
Back when the Thunder acquired Schroder from the Atlanta Hawks for Carmelo Anthony in the summer of 2018, giving up a conditional first-round pick because Schroder's contract was so much less onerous, the idea was Oklahoma City could eventually deal him to help replace the pick. Lo and behold, that's exactly what has happened.
In fact, the Thunder could end up way ahead in terms of draft picks if they're in the lottery in 2021-22. In that case, the pick Oklahoma City sends to Atlanta becomes second-rounders in 2024 and 2025.
Two seasons with the Thunder rehabilitated Schroder's value, which was limited after spending the previous two years as a starter on lottery teams. Oklahoma City moved Schroder to a bench role, a better fit for his score-first mentality, and cashed in at the peak of Schroder's value after he finished second to Montrezl Harrell in Sixth Man Award voting.
Now, the question is whether the Thunder can do the same thing with Green. With the franchise heading toward some version of a rebuild, it's certainly possible Green never makes it to Oklahoma City. If he is part of the 2020-21 Thunder, they can hope Green shoots well for the first few months of the season, which might make him valuable to a contender before the trade deadline. If not, dealing one expiring contract for another hasn't really cost the Thunder anything down the road.