What can Stephen Silas do to help the Houston Rockets take the next step in the playoffs?
After coming within a game of the NBA Finals in 2018, the Rockets have exited in the second round in each of the past two years, including a 4-1 loss to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers this season that wasn't particularly close.
Since Houston has little flexibility to retool its roster after trading for Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, it's up to Silas to find strategic ways to get more out of a similar group. Here's how he might accomplish that.
Step One: Help Russ Cook
James Harden is undoubtedly the Rockets' best offensive player. Westbrook is their most important from a coaching perspective. At this point, Harden is mostly going to do what he does on offense: isolate, hopefully against a weaker individual defender, and either drive or go to his step-back 3. Westbrook's role is far more malleable.
In particular, we saw Westbrook's game change when Houston traded starting center Clint Capela for Covington, which made the Rockets' move to play without a traditional center on the court permanent. That opened things up for Westbrook, who was far more effective in space.
The difference in performance for Westbrook with and without a traditional center (either Capela or backups Tyson Chandler and Isaiah Hartenstein) was dramatic through the suspension of the regular season.
Westbrook shot far more accurately inside the arc, attempted fewer 3s and was much more efficient than he'd ever been before. (His career high for true shooting percentage, which captures a player's efficiency on both shot attempts and trips to the free throw line, is .554 in 2015-16.) As a result, from Capela's injury until the suspension of the regular season, Westbrook scored nearly as prolifically per 36 minutes as Harden.
A combination of factors prevented that from translating in the restart. Westbrook was late to rejoin his team after testing positive for Covid-19, then suffered a quadriceps strain that sidelined him through the Rockets' first four playoff games. Predictably, Westbrook struggled after returning, making 48% of his 2-point attempts and posting a dismal .464 true shooting percentage in eight playoff games.
During the postseason, the attempts at the rim on which Westbrook had thrived dried up. According to Second Spectrum tracking, 40% of Westbrook's shots in the regular season with no traditional center on the court came in the restricted area around the basket. That dropped to 31% in the playoffs -- still better than the 26% mark he posted when playing alongside a center, but not good enough. Part of Silas's task will be determining whether that came because opposing defenses were better prepared for Houston in the playoffs or because Westbrook wasn't at full strength.
A subtle addition to the Rockets' playbook that could benefit Harden is using Westbrook more frequently as a pick-and-roll screener. Houston found itself short of pick-and-roll options in the playoffs when Luguentz Dort's defensive pressure made it difficult for Harden to play his usual isolation game. Westbrook's athleticism makes him dangerous rolling to the basket if he's willing to set a solid screen first.
Step Two: Build Trust in Switching Defense
Any team featuring Harden will likely be best off relying on a switch-heavy defense. During Mike D'Antoni's four years as head coach, the Rockets switched more than 1,500 more on-ball picks than any other team, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Only the Golden State Warriors were anywhere close in terms of switching, as the third-place team in this category (the LA Clippers) switched nearly one-third less frequently.
Relying on switches will be something of an adjustment for Silas. During his two years as an assistant to Rick Carlisle with the Dallas Mavericks, the Mavericks switched about half as frequently as the Rockets, per Second Spectrum. Before that, Silas worked with Steve Clifford in Charlotte, where the Hornets ranked last in the league in switching on-ball picks between 2013-14 and 2017-18.
Although the tactics are different, the teaching points should be similar for Silas: communication and repetition are as important to making sure switches are executed correctly as they are in any defensive scheme.
To his credit, D'Antoni had Houston playing at a high level defensively during the 2020 playoffs, particularly in their opening-round win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing without a traditional center, the Rockets ranked third in defensive rating and fourth when accounting for the regular-season performance of the offenses they faced. So the task for Silas is more to maintain Houston's defense than to improve it.
Step Three: Develop Young Talent
Even if the Rockets are willing to spend into the luxury tax for the first time since 2015-16, depth is going to be an issue for a team with more than $80 million per season guaranteed to Harden and Westbrook through 2023. Developing talent in-house is the easiest way of supplementing Houston's veteran stars.
Under D'Antoni, the Rockets had success with reclamation projects such as Ben McLemore, who played with more confidence in D'Antoni's system. But Danuel House Jr. is the only player of note Houston has developed since Capela broke into the starting lineup and Montrezl Harrell emerged as his backup in D'Antoni's first season as head coach.
In fairness, the Rockets didn't make a single first-round pick under D'Antoni. (Their last first-round pick was Sam Dekker in 2015.) That's not likely to change much going forward, as Houston owes first-round picks this year -- 2024 and 2026 (top-4 protected), and swaps in both 2021 and 2025. Silas, and new general manager Rafael Stone, will have to make development more of a focus to mine talent from the second round and G League.
With the roster aging and the rest of the West loading up, getting back to the conference finals will be challenging. If Silas can coach Houston there, he'll deserve a long tenure with the Rockets moving forward.