In April 2019, the Los Angeles Lakers were Team Turmoil. L.A. had missed the playoffs for the sixth straight year. Team president Magic Johnson had resigned, followed by coach Luke Walton losing his job once the offseason began.
Then came the shrewd hiring of Frank Vogel as coach, then the blockbuster trade that landed Anthony Davis. Eighteen months later, the Lakers are NBA champions for the 17th time.
Now the focus will turn to potential free agent Anthony Davis and a possible extension for LeBron James, who can be a free agent in 2021.
Note: The financials here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected. Dates are subject to adjustment.
MORE: Biggest trade, free agency and draft decisions for every eliminated NBA team
The Anthony Davis contract
The Lakers' acquisition of Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans was high risk, high reward.
Here is the price tag:
The No. 4 pick in the 2019 draft (which was sent to Atlanta, with the Pelicans getting picks No. 8 and No. 17 in return)
Los Angeles' 2021 first-round pick (protected 8-30), which will turn into an unprotected 2022 first if it is not conveyed
The right to swap first-round picks in 2023
Los Angeles' 2024 unprotected first-round pick (which the Pelicans can defer to 2025)
Adding to the risk: Davis could opt to become a 2020 free agent. With potential free agency looming for both Davis (in 2020 or 2021) and James (2021 or 2022), there would be no guarantee that either player would be on the roster for the 2022-23 season. In that case, both the Lakers' roster and their stock of draft picks would be bereft.
But as Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka told ESPN's Dave McMenamin, when James committed to the Lakers in 2018, it was Pelinka's job to put a championship roster around James even if that meant trading away draft picks and young players.
"When a player of LeBron's stature puts his trust in the organization," Pelinka said, "I think there's an implicit bilateral trust going back, saying: 'We're going to do everything we can to put you in a position to win more championships, because that's what you're about.'"
Fortunately for Los Angeles, Davis put together his most complete season, racking up honors along the way: being named first-team All-NBA and first-team All-Defensive, and finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and fifth in MVP voting.
Furthermore, the risk of the Davis trade is now largely canceled out by the ultimate reward: an NBA championship.
Still, Davis is all but certain to opt out of his $28.8 million contract for 2020-21.
The decision would be financially motivated and not an indication that Davis will look elsewhere when free agency begins. There is no reason to believe Davis would spurn the chance to win another championship with the Lakers to sign with a lottery team such as Atlanta, Detroit or New York -- the three teams projected to have cap space for a maximum-salary player such as Davis.
The opportunity Davis would be taking advantage of is getting a raise for next season and establishing security. If the salary cap stays at $109.1 million, he can receive $32.7 million next season rather than the $28.8 million on his current contract.
Beyond that, Davis and his agent, Rich Paul, will make a decision on the length of his next contract. Here are three ways for them to go:
Two-year contract: $32.7 and $35.4 million
The contract would provide Davis a player option for 2021-22, allowing him to be a free agent again and sign a long-term contract next offseason. But if the salary cap stays flat for 2021-22 or increases only slightly, Davis might choose to defer the decision for a year (to 2022) in the hopes that the salary cap, and therefore the amount of his next deal, will rise.
Three-year contract: $32.7, $35.4 and $38.0 million
This probably makes the most sense for Davis. A player option for 2022-23 would allow Davis to become a free agent in 2022, when he'll have 10 years of service. Meeting the service criterion would allow Davis to sign for 35% of the salary cap (similar to a supermax contract).
For example, if NBA revenue returns to expected levels and the salary cap is $120 million for 2022-23, Davis could sign a five-year, $243.6 million contract with the Lakers or a four-year, $180.6 million deal with a team that has cap space.
This contract would also align with James' potential free agency in 2022.
Five-year contract: $189.9 million
This deal would be comparable to the max contract Klay Thompson signed with the Golden State Warriors last offseason.
Davis would secure $189.9 million in guaranteed salary. But in future years, the contract would likely be for less than his potential earning power.
The LeBron James extension
James continues to produce at an MVP level at age 35.
Instead of seeing a deterioration in his overall game 17 seasons in his NBA career, James continues to produce at not just an All-Star level, but an All-NBA and MVP clip.
Five years after his return to Cleveland for his age-30 season, James is still putting up similar numbers:
James also is arguably the most durable star in the league. Since entering the NBA in 2003-04, James has played in 92.5% of regular-season games.
James still has two years left on his contract (at $39.2 and $41.0 million) but is eligible to receive an extension.
Because of the over-38 rule, the Lakers can extend him for only two seasons beyond 2021-22. (This assumes his player option for 2021-22 is removed, keeping him in Los Angeles.) The max salary under current expectations would be $43.0 and $46.5 million.
The extension would start in 2022-23.
The roster outside of LeBron and AD
A year ago, the Lakers could have handed out name tags when training camp started.
Los Angeles had signed, drafted or traded for 10 new players and three more who were returning. Only James and Kyle Kuzma were not part of the transaction game.
Now, heading into the offseason, the focus for Pelinka is on roster maintenance. The Lakers have 11 players under contract and are over the salary cap.
Besides the possible extensions for Davis and James, here is the menu of roster options (and decisions) facing the Lakers:
The player options
Including Davis, the Lakers have four players -- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($8.5 million), Avery Bradley ($5.0 million), JaVale McGee ($4.2 million) and Rajon Rondo ($2.7 million) -- with a player option for 2020-21.
One tendency in these situations is for role players to capitalize on the championship by entering free agency in search of a bigger payday. But this year, that appears less likely because there will probably be less spending this offseason.
Here is the available money:
Cap space of $15 million-plus: Four teams
$9.3 million midlevel exception: 20 teams
$3.6 million biannual exception: 15 teams
$5.7 million tax midlevel exception: Five teams
For some teams, such as Houston and Milwaukee, spending more than $5.7 million of their midlevel exception would impose a hard cap. Teams that rely on revenue sharing -- such as Indiana, Memphis and New Orleans -- could also be reluctant to use the full midlevel exception.
Because Caldwell-Pope has been on the Lakers' roster the past three seasons (without changing teams), he has established Bird rights. If he elects to opt out, the Lakers can sign him for up to 30% of the cap and a total of five years. The salary range for him outside of the Lakers would be $8 million to $9 million, similar to his 2020-21 player option.
Rondo and McGee have early Bird rights (allowing them 175% of their salary from the previous season or the average player salary), but the Lakers would have to commit a minimum of two years (not including an option) if they use the exception. The Lakers could sign them (and Avery Bradley) with the non-Bird rights exception and give each player a 120% raise from his 2019-20 salary.
In the case of Rondo, the maximum the Lakers could sign him for is $3 million -- a $300,000 increase from his 2020-21 player option.
In the unlikely scenario that all four players opt out and sign elsewhere, the Lakers would still not have cap space and would have only the $9.3 million midlevel, $3.6 million biannual and minimum exceptions to replace them.
Their own free agents
The Lakers' four free agents -- Markieff Morris, Jared Dudley, Dwight Howard and Dion Waiters -- signed one-year contracts and have non-Bird rights. The Lakers can sign each player to a maximum of $3 million without dipping into their midlevel or biannual exceptions.
JR Smith was signed as a substitute player, and the Lakers are allowed to sign him to the $2.7 million minimum exception.
The exceptions
The Lakers will have three roster spots (or four, if Quinn Cook is waived) open to use for their $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions.
Using both exceptions and waiving Cook would put Los Angeles right at the projected $132.7 million luxury tax line.
Beyond Morris and Howard, here are some available names to keep an eye on:
Point guard: Jeff Teague, D.J. Augustin, Matthew Dellavedova, Reggie Jackson and Michael Carter-Williams. Note that Goran Dragic will receive more than the midlevel exception in free agency, assuming good health.
Shooting guard: Langston Galloway, E'Twaun Moore, Alec Burks, Kent Bazemore, Jordan Clarkson, Justin Holiday and Pat Connaughton.
Forward: Maurice Harkless, Torrey Craig, Derrick Jones Jr., Jae Crowder, JaMychal Green and Carmelo Anthony.
Center: Derrick Favors, Christian Wood, Mason Plumlee, Nerlens Noel and Aron Baynes.
The 2021 offseason
Next year, the Lakers could have nine free agents without having all that much flexibility.
If the roster remains intact, the Lakers might head into next offseason with only James, Davis and their 2020 first-round pick on the roster. Kuzma will be a restricted free agent.
Even with only three players under contract, the maximum money they'll have to spend if the cap stays flat at $109.1 million is $17.5 million. That number would include renouncing the free-agent hold of Kuzma.
Offseason cap breakdown
As a result of the Davis $34.5 million free-agent hold (or his salary if he does not opt out), the Lakers will operate over the salary cap.
The Lakers will still be over the cap if Caldwell-Pope, Rondo, Bradley and McGee opt out of their contracts and sign with other teams.
The Lakers will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: first-round pick
Cash to send out and receive in a trade
Exceptions: $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual
Dates to watch
The Davis option date will be amended to reflect the revised start to the 2020-21 basketball calendar.
Caldwell-Pope, Bradley, Rondo and McGee have until the day prior to the start of free-agent negotiations to exercise their option for the 2020-21 season.
Quinn Cook has $1 million guaranteed of his $3 million contract with the balance becoming fully protected if he is not waived prior to the start of free agency. Cook averaged 11.5 minutes during the regular season.
Restrictions
The five Lakers with a player option -- Davis, Caldwell-Pope, Rondo, Bradley and McGee -- cannot be traded until they opt in to their contracts.
James has a 15% trade bonus in his contract. In the highly unlikely scenario that James is traded, the bonus would be voided because it exceeds the maximum salary allowed in one season.
Caldwell-Pope has a 15% trade bonus that is valued at $1.3 million.
Because of the Davis trade with the Pelicans, the Lakers cannot trade a first until 2027. They are allowed to trade the draft rights of their 2020 first-round pick after the draft.
Extension candidates
Kuzma is extension eligible up until the last day before the season starts.
The decision on a Kuzma extension comes down to three factors:
What is the value of preserving cap flexibility in 2021?
Do the Lakers view him as part of the future?
What is the value of Kuzma on the trade market?
If he is not extended, the forward will carry a $10.7 million free-agent cap hold in 2021. An extension for Kuzma decreases the Lakers' cap space next offseason. It also likely takes a potential trade of Kuzma off the table because of the poison pill restriction that would be in his contract.
Related note: Since 2016, only four players -- Larry Nance Jr., Justise Winslow, T.J. Warren and Taurean Prince -- have signed a rookie extension with a starting salary of $13 million or less, which is the category in which Kuzma would likely belong.
The draft assets
As covered above, the Lakers sent a bounty of draft assets to New Orleans in the Davis trade. They do have their own first-round pick in November and will likely retain their first in 2021.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Miami selecting in the draft:
No. 28 (own): Tyler Bey | F | Colorado
The Lakers have their own second-round picks starting in 2023.