There will be a new NBA champion in 2020, as the defending champs have officially been eliminated.
The Toronto Raptors aspire to get back atop the basketball throne, but first Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri has a few major decisions: Can the Raptors bring back Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol and still preserve cap space for potential free agents like Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Let's hit the most important goals for Toronto's offseason and break down their trade assets, draft options and cap space.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected. Dates are subject to adjustment.
MORE: Biggest trade, free agency and draft decisions for every eliminated NBA team
Winning now vs. cap flexibility
NBA front offices take a big-picture approach -- usually looking at a three-year window -- when balancing their finances and their ability to remain competitive.
The defending champion Raptors did that last October when Kyle Lowry signed a one-year, $30 million extension, followed by Pascal Siakam's four-year, $122 million max contract.
The two contracts are set to begin in 2020-21, with Lowry's expiring after the season. There is a potential strategy in that timing. For 2021-22, only Siakam and Norman Powell are on guaranteed contracts. Will Toronto be throwing its hat into the ring in 2021 when it comes to free agents?
"I think for Toronto, they look at this season and then they look at the summer of 2021, when, like a lot of teams, they want to be in the sweepstakes for Giannis Antetokounmpo," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski said on the Woj & Lowe Trade Deadline Show in February. "You're not going to see them do anything here that's going to compromise their salary-cap flexibility for the following year."
Big-game hunting would be a shift from how Toronto has built its roster. The Raptors' roster from their championship team and the current one was assembled through shrewd trades (for Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard), the draft (OG Anunoby, Norman Powell and Pascal Siakam) and signing undrafted prospects (Fred VanVleet and Terence Davis).
In fact, the four-year, $58 million deal for DeMarre Carroll in 2015 is the largest free-agent contract that a player has signed in Toronto in the seven years since Ujiri took over (other than contracts for their own players).
Their offseason plan, starting with VanVleet and continuing with Ibaka and discussions on a rookie extension for Anunoby, will be a clear sign as to what approach they will take going forward.
Can they keep Fred VanVleet?
That leads us to how the Raptors can prioritize cap flexibility in 2021 and still retain VanVleet, one of their core players but a pending free agent.
The undrafted guard went from playing in the G League to averaging almost 36 minutes per game this season and starting 54 games. He even garnered a Finals MVP vote last year (thanks to Hubie Brown) after coming off the bench to average 14 points, including 22 in Game 6.
This season's increase in playing time coincides with VanVleet missing a career-high 16 games as a result of various injuries (shoulder, hamstring and knee).
VanVleet has said his preference is to remain in Toronto: "I've been here. This is the team that gave me my chance, I think we understand that," he said on SportsNet's Sid and Tim show in October 2019.
The Raptors have a hometown advantage not only for the familiarity on the court but also when it comes down to finances. Because VanVleet has established Bird rights, Toronto can offer the most in dollars and contract length (up to five years) compared to a team that has cap space (four years maximum). But will the Raptors?
It is no secret that Toronto has prioritized cap space in 2021. An offer to VanVleet in the range of a four-year, $80 million contract would allow the Raptors to be in position to sign a max-type player in 2021, even if the salary cap were to stay flat at $109.1 million.
(Norman Powell has a player option, and his $11.6 million salary would need to come off the cap for the Raptors to have max room in 2021.)
Toronto would have Siakam, VanVleet and restricted free agent OG Anunoby to build around and sell to free agents.
What the Raptors cannot do is draw a line in the sand and offer a one-year contract, even if the salary were in the range of $25 million. For one thing, unless VanVleet were to be renounced, he would still have a high free-agent hold in 2021, restricting what Toronto could spend.
Second, the injuries this season might make VanVleet concerned when it comes to sacrificing long-term security with another team for a bigger payday in one season with Toronto.
Third, despite the uncertain economics of the salary cap, there is still a market for VanVleet. Atlanta, Detroit and New York all project to have at least $20 million in cap space. The Heat could also have cap space, though at the expense of guard Goran Dragic.
What about Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol?
Bringing back Ibaka and Gasol fits into the theme of preserving future flexibility but remaining in the top four of the Eastern Conference. Both players are set to enter free agency and are in different periods of their career.
Gasol will turn 36 in January and missed portions of this season due to injury. In the 44 games Gasol did play, the veteran center averaged a career-low 7.5 points per game. While the stat sheet showed a decline, the former Defensive Player of the Year ranked No. 5 in Defensive Real Plus-Minus among all centers and No. 10 overall. There is still a role for Gasol, with either Toronto or another team. But his new salary will be $6-8 million less than the $25.5 million he made this past season.
Ibaka averaged a career-high 15.4 points per game while still offering a defensive presence in the middle. Although his 0.8 blocks per game were the lowest in his career, Ibaka ranked in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage based on opponent attempts at the basket. As both a reserve and a starter, Ibaka now plays almost exclusively at center after playing most of his career as a power forward.
Ibaka should expect to see offers at the $9.3 million midlevel from playoff teams that do not have cap space. Dallas and Portland are possible suitors. The Raptors can preempt or counter that by offering a one-year, $18 million contract (with essentially two seasons of money paid in one year), allowing them to preserve cap flexibility in 2021. That would be a win-win.
If Toronto were to lose Gasol and Ibaka, the Raptors would have the $9.3 million midlevel, their two draft picks and restricted free agent Chris Boucher to patch the holes at starting and backup center.
The rookie extension of OG Anunoby
The Raptors' front office has shown a tendency to extend players early: Norman Powell in 2017, followed by Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry last October.
That could change with Anunoby. Because Anunoby was selected with the 23rd pick, his 2020 free-agent cap hold is $11.7 million. An extension that starts with a salary greater than the hold will see Toronto lose cap space in 2021.
The argument from Anunoby's camp would be that Toronto forfeited $20 million of cap space in 2020 when Siakam was extended. The power forward's $7.1 million cap hold was replaced with a projected salary of $27.3 million. But that situation was different because the Raptors lost flexibility in 2020 when Lowry was extended before they reached a new deal with Siakam.
Still, the Raptors front office does need to weigh the risk-reward factor. Anunoby is considered one of the top defensive players in the NBA and will likely see his price tag increase in 2021 if an extension is not reached. To keep him and maintain cost control, would Toronto be willing to extend him to a four-year, $70 million extension and lose $4 million in flexibility?
Offseason cap breakdown
The Raptors have $88 million in salary but are over the salary cap because of the $17.8 million free-agent hold of VanVleet.
If VanVleet does not return, Toronto would have $17 million in room but with 10 players under contract (not including VanVleet, Ibaka and Gasol).
The Raptors will have either the $9.3 million or the $4.8 million midlevel exception available.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: First- and second-round picks
Cash to send or receive in a trade
The Kyle Lowry expiring contract
Exception: $9.3 million or $4.8 million midlevel
Dates to watch
The rookie max extension of Siakam will be impacted by how the NBA sets the 2020-21 salary cap. The current $122.2 million contract is based on a projected $109.1 million salary cap. When Siakam signed the extension in October, the contract was projected to be worth $128 million.
Former lottery pick Stanley Johnson has until five days prior to the NBA Draft to exercise the $3.8 million player option in his contract. Johnson is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-low 6.0 minutes and barely played in the playoffs. Johnson is still only 24, but the market for the forward would be the veteran minimum exception. It is likely Johnson will opt into his contract.
Davis and Dewan Hernandez have guarantee dates for their respective $1.5 million contracts. The original November 7 will be adjusted with the new date of free agency. The undrafted Davis averaged 16.7 minutes this year and will get consideration for All-Rookie. He is a lock to have his contract guaranteed. Hernandez played in six games, averaging 4.7 points. He did not play in the playoffs and is considered a development project. He has a non-guaranteed contract for 2021-22.
Matt Thomas has $725,000 of his $1.5 million contract guaranteed. There is not a trigger date for the remaining half to become protected. The 25-year-old shot 47.5% from 3 in 41 regular season games this year.
By Oct. 17, the Raptors will extend one-year qualifying offers ($2 million each) to Malcolm Miller and Chris Boucher. The players will then become restricted free agents.
Restrictions
The poison-pill restriction for Siakam will be lifted on the first day of free agency. Because Siakam signed a rookie extension last year, the average salary of 2019-20 and the new extension is used for incoming salary. For example, Siakam would count as $26.3 million as incoming salary for a team acquiring him and $2.4 million as outgoing salary. Because of the restriction, Siakam cannot be traded until after free agency starts.
Davis and Hernandez count as outgoing salary because their contracts are non-guaranteed. Matt Thomas would count as $725,000.
Stanley Johnson cannot be traded until he opts into his contract.
Extension candidates
Besides Anunoby, the Raptors have Powell eligible for an extension. Powell has $10.9 and $11.6 million (player option) left on his contract. Toronto can add four years and $51 million of new money if the player option is removed. The number of additional years is reduced to three if the option is not touched. Powell struggled in the early part of the Boston series, averaging 7.0 points on 29.4% shooting from the field. But he would play a big role in the Game 6 win, with 23 points.
The draft assets
The Raptors own all of their future first-round picks.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Toronto selecting in the draft:
No. 29 (own): Cassius Winston | G | Michigan State
No. 59 (own): Josh Hall | F | Moravian Prep