If you asked the Orlando Magic why 2019-20 was a successful season, the answer would be a second straight playoff appearance and the development of Markelle Fultz into the point guard of the future.
The short-handed Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1, but Fultz, at age 22, started 60 games in the regular season and five more during the playoffs.
This offseason, the Magic's attention turns to the draft, the development of their young players, the future of Evan Fournier, filling a potential gap at backup point guard and possible rookie extensions for Fultz and Jonathan Isaac.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
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Assessing the roster and its direction
Orlando is the epitome of a team that is well coached and plays hard every night. Unfortunately, those descriptions imply a ceiling. In the Magic's case, that ceiling has been the first round of the playoffs, which they've made the past two seasons -- much like Orlando coach Steve Clifford's teams in Charlotte, which lost in the first round of the playoffs twice during his first three years there.
While the Magic can point to the injuries to Al-Farouq Aminu (in November) and Isaac (in January and again in August) as primary reasons this team struggled, Orlando was below .500 when both players were out.
Moving forward, the front office now has to assess where this roster is and ask an honest question: How do we go from competing for a playoff spot to being a top-five team in the East?
That question might seem unfair, considering that the Magic were in the lottery five straight years before president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman took over in 2017. But that should be considered a realistic goal for a maturing team.
Going forward, the Magic can put stock in their continuity and internal development, with starters Fultz, Aaron Gordon, Fournier (if he opts in) and Nikola Vucevic, plus role players Aminu and Terrence Ross as known quantities.
While the Magic will get a full season of Fultz at starting point guard, Isaac will likely miss most, if not all, of the 2020-21 season while rehabbing from a torn ACL.
Another cause for optimism is that the roster will have six players 25 or under: Fultz, Gordon, Mo Bamba, Isaac, the team's 2020 first-round pick and last year's selection, Chuma Okeke.
Deciding on a backup point guard
Fultz has played in only 105 games in three seasons, including 75 starts, raising the stakes for having a veteran insurance policy.
The Magic should have some good choices. They can bring back former starting point guard D.J. Augustin, who will be 33 when the season begins, or Michael Carter-Williams. Or they can use one of their free-agent exceptions: the $9.3 million midlevel, $3.6 million biannual or veteran minimum exception.
For Augustin, Orlando has Bird rights and can exceed the cap to bring him back. Expect the market to be in the $4-6 million range. Carter-Williams, a former Rookie of the Year in Philadelphia, has now played on five teams and missed the playoffs with a left foot injury.
If the Magic go outside, free agents will include Matthew Dellavedova, Brad Wanamaker (restricted), Austin Rivers and Shabazz Napier. Point guard projects to be the weakest position this offseason in terms of available free agents.
The Evan Fournier $17 million player option
If this were 2019, Fournier would be opting out of his $17 million contract and seeking a new deal with the Magic or a team that has cap space. But the 2020 offseason is shaping up differently.
The 27-year-old is coming off a season in which he posted a career high in scoring (18.5 PPG) and shot 46.7% from the field and 39.9% from 3. Fournier struggled in the playoffs, averaging 11.5 points and shooting 33.3% from the field and 32.1% from 3. But among prospective free-agent shooting guards, he would rank in the top three with Bogdan Bogdanovic and Joe Harris.
The tighter nature of this year's market is why it is more likely than not that Fournier opts in for another year. With the $115 million projected salary cap expected to drop, that leaves only five teams with projected cap room: Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Miami and New York.
Another option that would fit a pattern would be Fournier opting out to sign a new deal that decreases each season. Harrison Barnes did that in Sacramento, as did Gordon and Vucevic in Orlando.
A contract that would benefit both sides could start 2020-21 at $19 million (a $2 million raise from his $17 million salary) and decrease to $17.5 million, $16.0 million and $14.5 million over the remaining three seasons.
Before Oct. 14, Fournier's deadline to opt in, his agent, Bouna Ndiaye, will canvass the league to see if there is a landing spot. There will also be a discussion with the Magic front office about securing a long-term contract.
In the unlikely scenario that Fournier does opt out and sign with another team, the Magic would have only the $9.3 million midlevel exception to sign a free agent.
Offseason cap breakdown
• The Magic have $124 million in committed salary (with draft holds), including the $17 million Fournier player option. They will still be over the cap if Fournier leaves in free agency.
• Orlando would be impacted if the projected luxury tax drops from $139 million to $132 million. A decrease would have them only $8 million below the threshold.
• The Magic will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions available.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: first- and second-round selections
2019 first-round pick Chuma Okeke
$5.6 million to send out and receive in a trade
Exceptions: $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual
Dates to watch
Evan Fournier and James Ennis have until Oct. 17 to opt in to their $17.0 million and $2.1 million contracts, respectively, for next season. Ennis started 16 games this season, including all eight seeding games and five playoff contests. His contract is comparable to the minimum player exception. He would see at least the same salary if he were to become a free agent.
The Magic have until Oct. 17 to exercise the $1.6 million contract of former second-round pick Melvin Frazier. In his first two seasons, the 23-year-old played only a combined 29 games but did have a 19-minute, eight-point performance against Boston in early August, setting career highs.
Wesley Iwundu ($2.1 million) and Gary Clark ($1.9 million) will have the restricted-free-agent tag if the Magic give each player a one-year qualifying offer by Oct. 17. Because of the absence of Aaron Gordon, Clark started all five playoff games.
Restrictions
Fournier, Ennis and Frazier cannot be traded until a decision is made on their player/team options.
Extension candidates
The Magic have five players who are extension-eligible: Fultz, Isaac, Gordon, Fournier (if he opts in) and Frazier.
Fultz is a former No. 1 overall pick and three-year veteran but with only one season for Orlando to evaluate. (His first two seasons are pertinent to his career and development, but Orlando will look primarily at year three.)
As ESPN's Mike Schmitz wrote, Fultz has evolved in Orlando after two tumultuous seasons in Philadelphia. Because he has a $30.7 million free-agent cap hold in 2021, the decision to extend Fultz will come down to whether there is a price point the Magic are comfortable with. Unless there is an extension that starts in the $12-13 million range (the same as his 2020-21 salary), the Magic should pass until he becomes a restricted free agent.
Isaac was on his way to All-Defensive honors before he hurt his right knee in early January. Now with a torn left ACL, any extension talk will need to wait until the Magic assess his rehab. The likelihood is that Isaac will miss the 2020-21 season and become a restricted free agent in 2021. The forward has missed 62 games in his first two seasons with various left and right ankle issues, in addition to his knee injuries. If the Magic do extend him in the offseason or sign him to a new contract in 2021, his left knee will not be covered by insurance.
The Magic are in a similar position with Gordon that the Chicago Bulls are in with Zach LaVine. Gordon has two years left on his contract and is extension-eligible. The Magic can extend him up until the last day of the season for an additional three seasons and up to $64 million in new money.
Considering that the contract Gordon signed in 2018 decreases each season, it would be unlikely that Orlando would start the first year at $19.7 million. It would be hard to justify a $60 million extension for a player coming off an injury-marred, inconsistent season.
Also, an extension would take him off the trade market for six months, and Gordon represents the Magic's most valuable trade asset -- another reason an extension is unlikely this offseason.
The draft assets
The Magic will be adding two first-rounders: their 2020 pick and 2019 first-round pick Chuma Okeke, who was drafted last June but did not sign a contract while he was rehabbing a torn left ACL.
Here is how Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Magic selecting in October:
• No. 15 (own) Cole Anthony | North Carolina | PG/SG
• No. 45 (own) Skylar Mays | LSU | PG/SG
The Magic have their own firsts for all future years.