It is best to break this year's Portland Trail Blazers into two teams.
The first team was one decimated by injuries, finding itself outside of the top eight in the Western Conference when the season was suspended.
The second team made the playoffs behind Damian Lillard (MVP of the seeding games), CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr. (a Sixth Man of the Year candidate) and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic,
Now heading into the offseason, the Trail Blazers focus turns to possible extensions for Trent, Nurkic, Zach Collins, and their own free agents: Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
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Assessing the roster
One year removed from its Western Conference finals appearance, the team with the league's highest payroll did not advance past the first round.
It's easy to assume that the roster has reached its ceiling, but the Trail Blazers can return their core players -- with some minor tweaks -- and compete for a top-four seed in the Western Conference.
Here is why:
1. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum
Lillard is untouchable -- and not because of the $196 million supermax contract that starts in 2021-22. The five-time All-Star recently turned 30 and is under contract through 2024-25. Lillard told The Undefeated's Marc Spears in December that he wants to be in Portland, much as Dirk Nowitzki stayed in Dallas for his entire career.
"He just stayed with it," Lillard said. "I respect what Dirk did. Like, I see that and I'm like, 'It'll be worth it. I know it was worth it for him,' you know what I'm saying? Like, he'll be forever, ever, ever respected in Dallas and in the league. So that's like what I see from myself."
"They allow me to be like the best version of myself as a player," Lillard said. "They support me in the stuff that I do off the court. So why am I looking for a different situation?"
The Trail Blazers owe $29.3 million to McCollum next season. Via trade, they could choose to break that money up and acquire three role players and perhaps draft picks, but why would they? McCollum, at 28 (almost 29), is in the prime of his career and signed an extension last year that keeps him in Portland through 2023-24. He's averaged 20-plus points per game in five consecutive seasons.
2. Jusuf Nurkic
Nurkic has fully recovered from a fractured left tibia that sidelined him for 91 games over the past two seasons. The 25-year-old averaged 17.6 points and 10.2 rebounds in 31.6 minutes in eight seeding games.
He is under contract through the 2021-22 season with a team-friendly cap hit of $12.9 and $12.0 million, and the second year has only $4 million guaranteed. His contract ranks near the bottom among starting center salaries in the NBA.
3. The young foundation
Instead of building out the bench and finding a starter in free agency, Portland has turned to drafting and developing -- a result of the financial restrictions placed on the roster because of the luxury tax the past two seasons.
Former lottery pick Zach Collins went from averaging 15.8 minutes his rookie season to playing 26.4 minutes and starting all 12 games before his season was ended by injury. Gary Trent Jr. went from playing in only 15 games his rookie season to becoming a valuable role player off the bench, averaging 20.4 minutes (up from 7.4), and 8.0 points in 55 games with 41% shooting from 3.
Although Anfernee Simons was not part of the rotation in the seeding games, the guard is only 21 years old and appeared in 65 regular-season games (with four starts) this year. The Trail Blazers also have 20-year-old Nassir Little, their 2019 first-round pick.
4. The return of Rodney Hood
Hood was shooting 49.3% on 3s when he tore his left Achilles in early December. Eight months after surgery, the small forward is determined to get back on the court.
"Once you start to move and run a little bit, the confidence comes back, and then it's just a matter of time before you come back to be yourself. I'm determined to get back to myself and continue to play good basketball," Hood told ESPN's Eric Woodyard in June.
Hood has a $6 million player option, which he will likely exercise, and should benefit from the delayed start to next season.
5. The expiring contract of Trevor Ariza
In 32 games with Sacramento, Ariza shot 38.8% from the field and averaged six points per game. He missed seven games because of a groin injury and had four DNPs. Ariza resurrected his season with Portland, averaging 33.4 minutes on 21 starts, 11 points and 49.1% from the field and 40% from 3 before opting out of the restart.
Ariza has a $12.8 million contract that becomes guaranteed if he is on the roster past Oct. 18. Kent Bazemore is proof that Portland is not afraid to flip an expiring contract for players with years left on their contract.
6. Their own free agents
Nurkic's return raises questions about Whiteside's role. Whiteside put together one of his most efficient seasons as Nurkic missed 61 games, averaging 16.3 points on 61.8% from the field and 14.2 rebounds.
Whiteside has Bird rights and Portland can exceed the cap to sign him. His salary for next year projects to be the $9-10 million range.
There is no denying that the Carmelo Anthony signing last November benefited both sides. Anthony filled a void left open when Zach Collins was injured. After starting at power forward in the regular season, Anthony switched back to small forward in the restart games, averaging 16.5 points on 46.9% from 3.
Lillard commended the forward for hitting two big shots and making a defensive stop in the closing minutes against Houston.
"He understands what we need from him in certain situations, depending on how the game is going," Lillard said. "It's obvious to somebody like me that pays attention to everything. I find it real funny and disrespectful how people speak on him. He's a Hall of Famer."
Because he was on a one-year contract, Portland can offer Anthony a starting salary of $3.0 million, the $3.6 million biannual exception or use part of their $9.3 million midlevel exception.
The extension options: Zach Collins and Gary Trent Jr.
When it comes to extending a non-max young player with a year left on his contract, one common approach for teams is to avoid a new contract and preserve cap space for the following season. Often teams let the contract play out and wait for the player to become a restricted free agent.
The Trail Blazers' cap ledger in 2021-22 allows them to take a more proactive approach with Collins and Trent this offseason. Portland is right at the salary cap with both players' free-agent holds ($16.2 million for Collins and $2.1 million for Trent), the $74.5 million owed to Lillard and McCollum, Nurkic's $12 million contract ($4 million guaranteed), their 2020 and 2021 first-round picks and the salaries of Simons and Little.
Considering that Collins is only 22, averaged 16 minutes his first two seasons and missed all but three regular-season games (not including the eight seeding games in Orlando) this year because of a shoulder injury, the Trail Blazers would be buying future stock with an extension.
This would be comparable to the approach San Antonio took with Dejounte Murray. Murray averaged 8.5 minutes his rookie year, 21.5 in his second season and missed all of the 2018-19 season with a knee injury. The Spurs considered the 23-year-old to be their point guard of the future and signed him to a four-year, $64 million extension last October.
Not getting drafted in the first round is likely going to benefit Trent financially. He signed a three-year contract and not the standard four-year rookie scale for players selected in the first round, so Trent is now eligible to sign an extension this offseason.
In the seeding games and playoffs, Trent averaged 16.9 points, shooting 50.7% from 3. Portland should offer the maximum allowed: four years, $51 million.
Offseason cap breakdown
A luxury tax payer the past two seasons -- with a combined $20 million penalty -- Portland finds itself below the threshold this offseason.
If the Trail Blazers remove all their free-agent holds, they are right above the $109.1 million projected salary cap.
In terms of the tax, Portland does have financial flexibility with the $12.8 million ($1.8 million guaranteed) contract of Ariza. Waiving the veteran would not give them cap space.
If Ariza is not waived and the luxury tax line stays at $132.7 million -- the same as in 2019-20 -- Portland is $22 million below the luxury tax.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: lottery pick and second-round selection
The young players: Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr., Nassir Little and Zach Collins
The expiring contracts of Trevor Ariza and Rodney Hood
The $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exception
$5.6 million to receive and $3.8 million to send out in a trade
Dates to watch
Ariza's $12.8 million contract becomes guaranteed if Portland does not waive him by 5 p.m. ET on Oct. 18. Before the season was suspended in mid-March, Ariza averaged 33.4 minutes, 11 points, 4.7 rebounds on 49.1% from the field and 40% from 3. Portland ranked No. 1 in offensive rating in the 21 games he started.
Mario Hezonja has until Oct. 15 to exercise his $2.0 million player option. The contract is for the minimum salary exception and Hezonja is not likely to see a pay increase if he becomes a free agent.
Rodney Hood likely would have opted out of his $6.0 million contract for 2020-21 had he not ruptured his Achilles. At the time of his injury, Hood was having his most efficient season, averaging career-highs in field goal % (50.6), three-point % (49.3), offensive rating (112.3), true shooting (62.5%) and effective field goal (60.8%). Hood has until Oct. 15 to opt into his contract, a likely scenario considering he is nine months removed from Achilles surgery.
The Trail Blazers have until Oct. 17 to tender Wenyen Gabriel a $1.9 million qualifying offer.
The Damian Lillard super max extension that begins in 2021-22 will likely get adjusted when the future salary numbers are finalized. The $196 million extension is based on a $125 million cap. If there is a decrease in the salary cap, Lillard's per cap hit and total amount will reduce. The final number will not be determined until next June.
Restrictions
Only $1.8 million of Trevor Ariza's $12.0 million salary can be used in a trade.
Rodney Hood and Mario Hezonja cannot be traded until they opt into their contracts.
Portland sent out $1.8 million at the trade deadline and has $3.85 million available to use before Oct. 19.
Extension candidates
Along with Trent Jr. and Collins, Nurkic is also extension eligible. Because $4 million of his 2021-22 contract is guaranteed, Portland would need to guarantee the balance of $8 million if they were to extend him. The most Portland can extend him is for an additional three years and $46.5 million.
The draft assets
Portland has all of its own first-round selections.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Trail Blazers selecting in October:
No. 16 (own): Tyrese Maxey | Kentucky | G
No. 46 (own): Isaiah Joe | Arkansas | G