What does Gordon Hayward's severe ankle sprain mean to the Boston Celtics' chances of a deep run in the 2020 NBA playoffs?
After Hayward rolled his ankle late in Monday's Game 1 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics announced Tuesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 3 ankle sprain -- the most severe category of sprains -- and indicated he's expected to miss the next four weeks.
That timetable would sideline Hayward the remainder of Boston's opening series against the 76ers, plus in all likelihood the entirety of the Eastern Conference semifinals should the Celtics advance.
Without Hayward, can Boston advance far enough into the playoffs to allow him to return? Let's take a look.
MORE: 2020 NBA Playoffs schedule
How Boston replaces Hayward
Entering the playoffs, there was a clear divide between the Celtics' strong core of top-six players -- their five starters and sixth man Marcus Smart -- and the remainder of the roster. Boston's top six players all ranked in the top 100 this season in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), with backup center Enes Kanter the only other Celtics player who rated better than league average.
During Game 1 vs. Philadelphia, Boston coach Brad Stevens relied heavily on those six players, who combined to play 206 of the team's 240 minutes. Hayward's injury will force Stevens deeper into his bench. After all, there's only so many more minutes the Celtics can get from Smart, who figures to be Hayward's primary replacement. Smart finished Monday's game in place of Hayward, but had already seen 29 minutes of action off the bench before that.
Beyond Smart, the next man up is backup point guard Brad Wanamaker, the only perimeter reserve besides Smart to see meaningful action in Game 1. (Rookie Romeo Langford played the game's final 10.9 seconds.) After averaging 19.3 mpg during the regular season, Wanamaker played just 10 on Monday, so he's capable of extending his minutes.
Stevens will likely have to give minutes to at least one more perimeter player. That choice figures to be Javonte Green or Semi Ojeleye, two quality defenders who don't really need to be accounted for by opposing defenses. Though Ojeleye made 38% of his 3-pointers this season, that's out of line with his 32% accuracy the previous two years and came on selective attempts. Per StatHead.com, Ojeleye's 9.7% usage rate ranked in the NBA's bottom 10. Green, meanwhile, shot just 9-of-33 (27%) from beyond the arc.
Hayward's versatility will be missed
When Boston's starters are on the court, Hayward's absence may also be felt in terms of missing versatility. Closer to fully healthy two seasons removed from the horrifying fibula fracture that sidelined him nearly the entire 2017-18 campaign, Hayward offered the Celtics a little bit of whatever they needed.
An All-Star and go-to scorer during his time with the Utah Jazz, Hayward remains capable of creating his own offense, particularly in the favorable matchups created by playing alongside two other quality wings, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. He particularly excels as a playmaker in those situations, handing out assists at a rate typical of a combo guard.
At the same time, Hayward is fully capable of being a threat spotting up when Boston puts the ball in the hands of Tatum or fellow All-Star Kemba Walker. Hayward knocked down 42.5% of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts this season, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, good for 27th in the NBA among players with at least 100 such attempts. That's his biggest advantage over Smart, who ranked in the league's bottom 25 at 31%.
Defensively, Hayward's versatility shines too. According to my analysis of Second Spectrum tracking data of defensive matchups, Hayward spent at least 17% of his time guarding players at every position but center. Smart will be an upgrade at the defensive end and plays bigger than his size, but the Celtics still might miss Hayward's ability to match up with power forwards.
Projecting Boston without Hayward
Combining my projections of team rotations and player ratings in the multiyear, predictive version of RPM shows Boston dropping off by about five wins per 82 games without Hayward in the lineup. While that might not sound like much, it's enough to noticeably hurt the Celtics' chances of reaching the Eastern Conference finals.
Without Hayward, Boston should still be comfortably favored to beat the Sixers, who are dealing with a bigger absence of their own in All-Star Ben Simmons. Based on my pre-series projection and their 1-0 lead, the Celtics were favored to win about 84% of the time with a healthy Hayward. His absence drops that, but only to 74%.
The bigger challenge might come in the East semifinals, where Boston would most likely match up against the defending champion Toronto Raptors. With the Celtics at full strength, RPM projected their likely rotation nearly as strong as the Raptors', but Hayward's injury opens up a sizable gap between the two teams. Barring a shocking upset of Toronto by the Brooklyn Nets, Boston projects to have an uphill climb to the East finals in the next round.
The other issue the Celtics must fear is the possibility of an additional injury that would further compromise their depth. From that standpoint, the quad contusion Brown suffered in a collision with Embiid Monday is less than ideal. He's listed as probable for Game 2.
Remember also that Walker missed the team's first seven games after the All-Star break due to swelling in his left knee, which was still bothering him when the team first arrived at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex for the restart. If Walker is limited or has to miss time, Boston's depth would go from a concern to a potential season-ender.
The four-week timetable the Celtics listed for Hayward seems optimistic given the history of Grade 3 ankle sprains, as noted by injury expert Jeff Stotts. Still, even by that timetable, Boston will have a tough time playing well enough without Hayward to still be active by the time he's able to return.