For the Washington Wizards, with John Wall out for the season, 2019-20 became a year for player development.
Now, with Wall expected to return next season, and Bradley Beal exploding as a scorer with 30.5 PPG, the Wizards have some big decisions to make: Should they trade Beal while his value is peaking? How do they approach the lottery and free agency, especially with sharpshooting Davis Bertans hitting the market?
Let's hit the most important goals for the Wizards' offseason and break down their trade assets, draft options and cap space.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
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Job 1: Block out the Bradley Beal trade noise
The trade speculation will begin again this offseason, as Beal, still only 27 years old, is the player who would bring back the most if Washington were willing to move him. The Wizards are a lottery team for the second straight year, and they've focused a lot of their attention on the future, with six rotation players age 23 or under, and several other young players in the pipeline. Does that mean the Wizards would be better off moving Beal now to maximize his value?
After signing an extension last October, Beal is under contract through 2022-23 (with a player option for that season). Any team acquiring him would have him for at a minimum of two seasons, a rarity for an All-Star like Beal. While a trade, in theory, might be a tempting prospect for both the Wizards and Beal -- giving the Wizards future value and Beal a chance to play for a contender -- he should be part of the solution in Washington, as he seems ready to be.
"I have an organization who basically gave me the keys," Beal said on the Lowe Post podcast in April. "'We're going to build around you. We're going to get guys around.' If I go anywhere else, granted, it may be a good team, but I would be a piece. Who knows if my role would be the same? My role here is, I love what it is. I love [Scott] Brooks. I love what we have. I love our young guys. I think the fact that we actually have guys that are committed to getting better."
There is also the relationship Beal has built with Wall after some rockier times, and the opportunity that awaits when the point guard returns.
"We were close way before I even got into the league," Beal said of Wall. "Even now, he's a big brother to me. He's taken me under his wing since day one. We're still like that to this day. We're both alpha dogs. We both feel like we're winners. We both want to take the shot at the end of the game. That's just how we are. At the end of the day, I think we both trust each other. I know I wouldn't be who I am without him and he wouldn't be part of who he is without me either. I think we both have that understanding."
Granted, Beal could wake up in mid-October and ask out if he sees the future in Washington as a dead end. For now, Beal and the Wizards need to block out the noise when it comes to trade speculation.
Job 2: Get John Wall back on the floor
Two years ago, I wrote about Wall's contract, an eyesore that one executive with another team called "the toughest contract I have seen a team try to move in 20 years."
The season before, Wall had played only 41 games. One concern then, which has been realized, was that Wall's body appeared to be breaking down -- after knee, heel and Achilles injuries -- before his $171 million super-max extension even began. That contract finally kicked in this season, and it has $41.2, $44.3 and $47.4 million remaining for the next three seasons.
In May, after more than two years off the court, Wall declared himself "healthy ... 110%."
If that's the case, Wall will play a role in both the Wizards' attempt to return to perennial playoff contender status and their decision about Beal.
Wall was once a durable player who missed only 12 games in four seasons and made All-NBA third team and five All-Star games. He'll turn 30 soon, but the Wizards can hope that he's regained some of his world-class athleticism and they'll be able to reteam their All-Stars in the backcourt.
Job 3: Bring back free agent Davis Bertans at a reasonable price
In his first season with Washington, Bertans averaged 15.4 points per game with 42.4% shooting on 3s. Though he played the sixth-man role, he was by far the Wizards' most effective player, according to ESPN's real plus-minus.
That strong performance leads to the downside of Washington's Bertans trade last July with San Antonio: The forward will enter the offseason as an unrestricted free agent.
Although Bertans will have suitors, the group of teams with cap space -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Miami, New York and Phoenix -- is smaller than in previous years.
In any case, Bertans' starting salary for 2020-21 is likely to at least double his current $7 million salary. Will a team be willing to sign him for a contract starting north of $16 million? That's one question Washington must try to answer.
For comparison, here is a list of players who were primarily bench players this season and paid more than $16 million: Gorgui Dieng, Bismack Biyombo, Andre Iguodala, Evan Turner, Jeff Teague, Goran Dragic, Kent Bazemore and Nicolas Batum.
With that backdrop, Washington must decide how to approach contract talk with Bertans. Do they treat him like a restricted free agent and allow him to shop for an offer with another team to set the price? Or do the Wizards take an aggressive approach to bring back Bertans on October 18, the first day of free-agent negotiations?
The problem with the conservative approach is that Washington is not projected to have cap space for the next three seasons and would not have the flexibility to replace Bertans with a similar player.
Offseason cap breakdown
Notes
The $13.3 million Bertans free-agent hold has Washington over the salary cap.
Because of their first-round cap hold, the Wizards will be right at the cap even if Bertans does not return.
The Wizards will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available.
Washington also has a $1.6 million trade exception.
Because of the combined $80 million owed to Wall and Beal, the Wizards are projected to be over the cap in 2021-22.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: two picks in the top 40, including a lottery selection
The return of John Wall
The young players: Troy Brown, Mo Wagner and Rui Hachimura
Own free agent: Davis Bertans
$9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exception
$5.6 million to receive and $4.5 million to send in a trade
Dates to watch
• Washington has two players -- Isaac Bonga and Anzejs Pasecniks -- on partial or non-guaranteed contracts. The $1.7 million Bonga contract becomes guaranteed on Oct. 17. Pasceniks has $200,000 of salary protection that increases to $1.5 million if he is not waived by October 26.
Restrictions
• The Wizards sent $1.1 million to New Orleans in a previous trade and have $4.5 million cash to send out prior to Oct. 19.
• The Bonga and Pasecniks contracts have no trade value since there is no salary protection.
• Both Bradley Beal and John Wall have 15% trade kickers. The Beal trade bonus is valued at $9.5 million and would be divided over three years (if traded before Oct. 19) or two seasons if traded after. The amount of the bonus could decrease if the salary cap comes in below $109 million. The Wall bonus is voided since it would exceed the maximum salary allowed.
Extension candidates
• Wall and Bonga are the only players on the roster that are extension eligible. It is unlikely that either player will receive a new contract.
Draft assets
The Wizards have all their own first-round picks.
Here is how Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington selecting in October:
No. 9 (own): Precious Achiuwa | PF/C | Memphis
No. 37 (via CHI): Payton Pritchard | PG | Oregon