Who could benefit and who might be less pleased if the NBA moves forward with a 22-team restart of the 2019-20 regular season in Orlando, Florida?
After Friday's remote board of governors meeting, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Ramona Shelburne and Zach Lowe reported that several members of the board indicated there's growing momentum for that plan to resume the season, which was interrupted on March 11 by the coronavirus pandemic.
A 22-team format probably would include additional regular-season games followed by a play-in tournament for playoff berths in both conferences, they reported. What would the implications of that scenario be for teams on the playoff bubble and elsewhere?
Let's take a look at potential winners and losers.
Winners: New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trail Blazers
Though the Pelicans and Blazers would have plenty of competition for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, where five teams currently outside the postseason picture would be invited to resume the season -- the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs would join them -- New Orleans and Portland are in the best position to benefit.
As of the shutdown, the Pelicans, Blazers and Kings were all tied for ninth in the West, 3½ games back of the Memphis Grizzlies. However, New Orleans and Portland have the strongest cases to perform better than their sub-.500 records in a tournament.
New Orleans went 10-9 in the 19 games Zion Williamson played after his return from knee surgery, and it posted a better point differential (minus-0.8 points per game) before the stoppage than the Grizzlies (minus-1.1) despite playing the league's most difficult schedule, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). One lingering question is whether the Pelicans will get the break they were due the rest of the season from schedule-makers in the games rescheduled for Orlando.
The Blazers, meanwhile, should be the closest they've been to full health since early in the season. Starting center Jusuf Nurkic, who hasn't played since suffering a compound fracture of his left tibia and fibula in March 2019, was due back days after the NBA shut down. And starting power forward Zach Collins also should be ready to return from shoulder surgery that sidelined him after only three games at the campaign's outset.
Portland star guard Damian Lillard told ESPN's Jalen and Jacoby earlier this week that he was "100% positive" Collins and Nurkic would be able to play, making last season's conference finalists a formidable contender in a play-in tournament.
Loser: Memphis Grizzlies
By contrast, a play-in tournament is bad news for the Grizzlies, who will understandably protest being forced to play for a playoff spot despite a sizable lead for eighth in the West. But I don't think those complaints are totally warranted given that under typical circumstances Memphis would have had to navigate the league's most difficult remaining schedule, according to BPI.
In part because of that, and also because the Grizzlies' record outpaced both their point differential and their preseason expectations, the Grizzlies were far from a lock to make the playoffs at the time play stopped. They held off the competition in 32% of simulations based on BPI, while FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projections were even more bearish on Memphis' chances, showing the Grizzlies in the playoffs in just 15% of simulations.
As compared to that forecast, the Grizzlies probably will have better chances of winning a play-in tournament if it is set up to favor the eighth seed.
Still, these aren't normal circumstances, and Memphis could reasonably have hoped for an outcome in which only the 16 current playoff teams headed to Orlando, which appears unlikely.
Possible loser: Los Angeles Lakers
Whether the Lakers actually end up in a worse position depends on the NBA's decision on possibly seeding all playoff teams 1-16, as opposed to retaining traditional conference brackets in the West and East.
If the playoffs are still done by conference, the Lakers might face a more daunting first-round opponent than the Grizzlies. In particular, the Lakers probably don't want to take on the Blazers, who used a 48-point outburst from Lillard to win in L.A. during the first game the Lakers played after Kobe Bryant's death -- the only victory by any contender for the West's 8-seed at Staples over the Lakers this season.
Loser: Orlando Magic
The Magic's gripe over having to play for a postseason spot is far more legitimate than Memphis' case. Orlando had a 5½-game lead over the Washington Wizards, the only East non-playoff team that would be invited to Disney's ESPN Wide World of Sports under the 22-team scenario. And since the Wizards had the second-most difficult remaining schedule after the Grizzlies, Washington effectively had no chance to make the playoffs in a traditional format, according to statistical projections.
Winner: Dallas Mavericks
Naturally, much of the attention on a 22-team scenario will focus on the play-in tournaments in both conferences, but playing additional regular-season games also could have seeding implications among teams locked into the playoffs.
Nobody stands more to gain by moving up than the Mavericks, currently seventh in the West and staring at a first-round matchup with the LA Clippers. Not only is Dallas 1½ games behind both the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder, the Clippers have the same margin over the Denver Nuggets for third. So one way or another, the Mavericks could end up with a first-round matchup that gives them a better chance of an upset -- provided they don't end up having to play for a postseason spot if they remain seventh in the West.
Loser: Utah Jazz
Of the teams in the top half of each conference, the Jazz might be in the most danger of slipping out of that spot. They'll have to finish the regular season without starting forward Bojan Bogdanovic, who underwent season-ending wrist surgery earlier this month. Though Utah coach Quin Snyder will have the advantage of working out how to replace Bogdanovic ahead of the playoffs, there's the potential to slide as far as sixth in the standings because only one game currently separates the Jazz from both Houston and Oklahoma City.
The good news for Utah is that finishing fourth versus fifth is not a big deal, especially with all games played on a neutral court. The bad news is this scenario makes the Jazz more likely to face a first-round matchup with the Rockets, who have knocked Utah out of the playoffs each of the past two seasons and took two of three head-to-head meetings so far in the 2019-20 season.