What does the Brooklyn Nets parting ways with Kenny Atkinson mean for their chances of contending when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving return next season?
The timing of Saturday's announcement that the Nets and Atkinson had "mutually agreed" to part ways came as a surprise, in no small part because Brooklyn was coming off a blowout win over the San Antonio Spurs at home the night before. While the Nets' injury-marred season likely can't be salvaged, they have higher hopes for 2020-21, when Durant and Irving should be back from long-term injuries.
What kind of replacement might help Brooklyn translate the excitement of landing two of last summer's top free agents into contention for the Eastern Conference crown? And where could Atkinson land? Let's take a look.
Atkinson deserves credit for the Nets' rise in the East
When Atkinson arrived in Brooklyn less than four years ago, he inherited what looked like the NBA's most hopeless team. The Nets finished last in the East during 2016-17, his first year as head coach, but were back in the playoffs within two seasons. While general manager Sean Marks certainly upgraded the talent on the roster, Atkinson's player development and defensive scheme were key factors in Brooklyn's progress.
That steady improvement was most obvious at the defensive end of the court, where Atkinson installed a conservative system designed to take away high-value shots at the rim and beyond the arc. The Nets rank in the league's top 10 this season in opponent 3-point rate, and only the Milwaukee Bucks allow shots in the restricted area less frequently, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Because of that strong shot chart, Brooklyn opponents had the third-lowest shot quality in the league according to Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) metric, which determines the expected effective field goal percentage of each shot based on location, type and distance of nearby defenders. The Nets are eighth overall in defensive rating, and every team ahead of them has a winning percentage of .600 or better.
Naturally, given Brooklyn is 28-34, that points a finger at the offense as the culprit for the team's shortcomings. The Nets never ranked better than 19th in offensive rating (in 2018-19) under Atkinson. This season, they slipped back to 23rd, with offensive explosions like the 139 points they put up against San Antonio on Friday few and far between.
At the same time, Brooklyn never had elite offensive talent during Atkinson's tenure. The additions of Durant and Irving promised to provide that eventually, but Durant won't make his Nets debut until 2020-21 because of an Achilles rupture, and Irving played just 658 minutes before requiring shoulder surgery. The brief time Brooklyn was able to pair Irving with Spencer Dinwiddie offered an encouraging taste of what might be in store. The Nets managed 117.0 points per 100 possessions with both dynamic guards on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats, a rate that would lead the league.
Managing playmakers and personalities is a key
It will be interesting to see the caliber of coaches Brooklyn attracts if the team decides this summer not to go forward with assistant Jacque Vaughn, who will coach the remainder of the season. Though there may be an unusually large number of vacancies, few will offer as much upside as the chance to coach a pair of All-Stars. At the same time, keeping Durant and Irving happy could prove challenging for a coach without a forceful personality and instant credibility.
Besides the component of talent management, there's also the question of fitting two superstars who rightfully want to make plays with the ball in their hands with a pair of role players, Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert, who are also most effective handling the ball. LeVert's improvement as a 3-point shooter this season (he's making 37% of his attempts, having previously hit a below-average 33%) is encouraging but over too small of a sample to be considered reliable.
In all likelihood, the best coach for the Nets will be someone with playoff experience who can command the respect of their star players. Former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue, the only available active coach to win a championship (with Irving as his point guard), should certainly be of interest to Brooklyn.
One important aspect of the timing of the Nets and Atkinson parting ways: It could allow Brooklyn to pursue a coveted coach who is currently out of the league before other playoff teams can do so at the conclusion of their postseason runs.
Where might Atkinson land?
Given the expected volatility on the sidelines this offseason, Atkinson likely won't be out of work for long. Despite concerns about his offensive system, Atkinson's bona fides as a developer of young talent are established enough that he will be an attractive candidate for teams on the rise.
Given that Atkinson came to the Nets from the Atlanta Hawks, for whom he was an assistant coach under Mike Budenholzer, a return would be logical if the Hawks decide to move on from Lloyd Pierce after two seasons. Atkinson's defensive system could help minimize Atlanta's defensive shortcomings, while his developmental track record would be ideal given the number of recent first-round picks in the Hawks' lineup.
Alternatively, if the New York Knicks are thinking as patiently about their future as new team president Leon Rose intimated in his message to fans, Atkinson could make sense as a candidate to cross the Brooklyn Bridge and develop the Knicks' recent lottery picks if the team does not retain interim head coach Mike Miller.
The other coaching job that has changed hands this season is in Cleveland, where the Cavaliers replaced John Beilein with J.B. Bickerstaff after Beilein stepped down during the All-Star break. Bickerstaff seems a fairly likely candidate to continue in that role, having guided Cleveland to a more competitive 3-5 record thus far. If the Cavaliers do make another change, Atkinson could be the long-term solution they've lacked on the sidelines since firing Lue.