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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams
The NBA Rising Stars will take center stage during All-Star Weekend on Friday at the United Center in Chicago. Which players on the United States and The World rosters have the most star potential?
Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz drafted Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and more of the NBA's best rookies and sophomores to build two 11-player rosters forecasting for 2025 and beyond.
Let's see how they rank the NBA's young stars.
The first two rounds were selected by snake draft, and then our insiders exchanged picks for the remaining rounds.
The starting fives
1. Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks
Jonathan Givony: Doncic is already an MVP candidate in his second year in the NBA, something his most vocal supporters in the draft couldn't have predicted. He hasn't turned 21 years old and still has upside to tap into as he improves his body.
Doncic is a devastating shot-creator (58.0 2P%, nine free throw attempts per game) for himself and others while finding ways to improve his 3-point efficiency (32%) to reflect how good a shot-maker he is. A pesky ankle injury that cost him 12 games has been the only damper on Doncic's season thus far.
He has changed the way NBA scouts look at the draft. Analysts are putting more emphasis on deceleration, prodigious basketball IQ and productivity now than they did two years ago, when Doncic was nitpicked to death to the point that he was foolishly passed over by multiple franchises.
2. Zion Williamson | New Orleans Pelicans
Mike Schmitz: Although I would have drafted Doncic first overall as well, the possibility that Williamson becomes the superior NBA player in three or four years makes him the clear choice at No. 2.
Williamson already is highly productive 10 games into his NBA career while barely even looking at the rim from the perimeter, and as his jump shot progresses, he should tap into the playmaking ability we've seen flashes of.
For him to be the small-ball center the Pelicans see him evolving into, he has to improve on the backboards and defensively. Prior to Duke, Williamson hadn't played structured basketball, so his technique guarding pick-and-roll and his closeout fundamentals haven't been stellar. But once he learns the nuances of defense and his conditioning improves, Williamson should develop into an MVP candidate, health permitting.
3. Ja Morant | Memphis Grizzlies
MS: The likely Rookie of the Year if the season ended today, Morant is already a star at 20 years old, with the ingredients to become the league's top point guard.
We compared Morant to a mix of Trae Young and De'Aaron Fox leading up to the draft, and that might have undersold his talent. Not only is Morant averaging 17.6 points and 7.0 assists in less than 30 minutes on 57.3% true shooting, but he also has the Grizzlies in the playoff hunt, completely revitalizing a franchise that top prospects wanted to avoid. His personality is infectious, teammates love playing with him, and the South Carolina native has the mentality to embrace the Memphis market.
Morant can still improve defensively, become a more reliable shooter and finish better through contact, but he's way ahead of schedule as far as rookie point guards go, including making 3s when teams go under screens, and he has the most efficient floater in the NBA.
According to our database, Morant is one of only two players in NBA history to average at least 17 points while shooting better than 50% from 2 and 35% from 3 before reaching the age of 21. The other? Current teammate and Grizzlies cornerstone Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder
JG: With Zion and Ja picked, I wanted a creator who can play on or off the ball with the versatility to guard both backcourt positions. Gilgeous-Alexander fits that description perfectly, as he plays that role on OKC alongside Chris Paul and sometimes together with Dennis Schroder.
Gilgeous-Alexander will soon have the keys handed to him, but it's tough to argue with the way he's being developed and the improvement he has shown between his rookie and sophomore seasons. His leadership is helping as OKC looks like a near-lock for a playoff spot and is fighting for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
It's fun to see how much trust the 21-year-old has earned from his teammates and coaching staff, and his confidence and assertiveness are growing on a nightly basis. It's exciting to ponder how much better he can become as his body fills out and his jumper continues to stabilize.
5. Trae Young | Atlanta Hawks
MS: This came down to Young, Jackson or Deandre Ayton. Although I've had questions about Young's ability to impact winning at the highest level due to his defensive limitations and ball-dominant style, I underestimated how devastatingly good an offensive player he would be.
I knew he was an elite off-the-dribble passer with never-ending range and the confidence to match, but the fact that he has been able to average 29.7 points in 35.1 minutes while ranking fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage speaks to how skilled he is. Even at his size, he has a knack for drawing contact (9.2 free throw attempts per game), and he's going to become more efficient as he gains experience.
He's still arguably the worst defender in the NBA, and the jury is out on whether he can turn the Hawks into a winning team, but he's one of the premier young point guards in the game, with an offensive repertoire built for the way NBA basketball is played today.
6. Jaren Jackson Jr. | Memphis Grizzlies
JG: Jackson is a cornerstone of the fast-rising Grizzlies, who would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended now. Jackson is the fourth-youngest player participating in this game, something that should be accounted for in his long-term outlook.
He's scoring prolifically (24 points per 40) and efficiently (59% TS%), but it seems like there's another gear Jackson can get to on both ends of the floor in terms of toughness, basketball IQ and overall impact. The fact that he's rebounding as poorly as he has been thus far has made it difficult for him to emerge as the full-time, rim-protecting, switch-everything, vertical-spacing, 3-point-shooting center many envisioned him becoming in the NBA.
The Grizzlies can afford to be patient with his development because if he comes even close to realizing his full potential, Jackson will be one of the most valuable two-way players in the league.
7. RJ Barrett | New York Knicks
MS: I wasn't as high on Barrett pre-draft as some, but this is great value here in this mock draft, and I think it would be wise to not overreact to an ugly rookie season for a 19-year-old.
Barrett's 46.7% true shooting is historically bad for a top-three pick, but he deserves a bit of a pass, given the Knicks' porous roster construction. Barrett is an aggressive, physical slasher who needs space to operate. Unfortunately, the Knicks are arguably the worst shooting team in the NBA, ranking last in made 3s and bottom-five in 3-point percentage. That lack of spacing is a big reason Barrett is shooting just 41% at the rim in the half court and ranks in the 12th percentile on pull-up jumpers.
Barrett is a better player than he has been able to show with this Knicks group, and New York's drafting a player such as LaMelo Ball could help his efficiency. I'll bet on Barrett's work ethic and competitiveness as reasons he'll evolve into a very good NBA player in time.
8. Deandre Ayton | Phoenix Suns
JG: A 25-game suspension and Doncic's ascension to superstar status have made Ayton somewhat an afterthought in the conversation about the league's best young prospects. He should be an All-Star soon, especially with the subtle improvements he's making on the defensive end as a rim protector and covering ground on pick-and-rolls.
Ayton still doesn't always bring the type of physicality and assertiveness you'd like to see in the paint and in getting to the free throw line, and his lack of shooting range development isn't ideal. Still, he is only 21 years old, and his supernatural physical tools make him one of the most productive big men in the NBA and an easy choice at No. 8.
9. Brandon Clarke | Memphis Grizzlies
MS: A draft-day steal at No. 21, Clarke's play has caused several NBA teams to investigate why they missed on the 6-foot-8 pogo stick. Although it's still early, and the 23-year-old was expected to have an instant impact, few thought his offensive game and efficiency would translate so seamlessly.
He ranks in the top 10 in true shooting percentage while making more than 40% of his 3s and has maybe the best big-man floater in the NBA. Clarke has a lot of Shawn Marion to his game, though his rim protection and overall defense haven't quite translated yet. Clarke is a valuable player who doesn't need volume to have an impact.
10. Tyler Herro | Miami Heat
JG: Herro won't play Friday due to a foot injury and has been replaced on the roster by Collin Sexton. The Kentucky rookie has carved out a significant role, playing for a team vying for home-court advantage in the playoffs. Herro has established himself as one of the best catch-and-shoot threats in the league while showing potential creating out of pick-and-roll sets and making shots off the dribble.
He's the third-youngest player in this game, and his scoring instincts, toughness, swagger and unlimited confidence provide upside for him to grow into as his body and skill set continue to evolve.
Draft results
Team Givony
Luka Doncic
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Deandre Ayton
Tyler Herro
Team Schmitz
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
Trae Young
RJ Barrett
Brandon Clarke
Collin Sexton