The 12 trades that teams made in the 48 hours before the 2020 NBA trade deadline is a preview of what to expect this offseason. With salary-cap space in short supply, the transaction game will have to come more by trades than lucrative free-agent contracts.
After the combined $4 billion spent on more than 150 players last July, teams don't have much cap room to use on a class that projects to be average at best.
Also there are teams such as the New York Knicks, who could have $50 million in cap space in 2020 but likely will choose to bypass free agency and wait until 2021, when we could see another historic free-agent class.
Now that the trade deadline has passed, let's take a look at what we should expect this summer.
MORE: NBA trade deadline winners and losers
Ranking the free agents
Anthony Davis is the clear headliner of the 2020 class, though his name should be written in pencil. Despite Davis telling ESPN's Rachel Nichols this July, "I don't know what's gonna happen -- I have one year here," that attempt to preserve mystery about his commitment to the Los Angeles Lakers should be met with skepticism.
The Lakers' front office would not have traded six players, two first-round selections and a pick swap for a one-year rental. Plus, the teams that will have cap space are not considered championship contenders, which is one reason Davis forced a trade away from the New Orleans Pelicans. Draymond Green also came off the board with his extension, leaving the free-agent class barren of superstars.
Beyond Davis, here are 26 of the top free agents by position, plus other notable names:
Point guard
1. Fred VanVleet | TOR | Age: 26 | $9.3 million
2. Mike Conley (early termination option) | UTA | Age: 32 | $32.5 million
3. Goran Dragic | MIA | Age: 34 | $19.2 million
4. Jeff Teague | MIN | Age: 32 | $19 million
5. Kris Dunn (restricted) | CHI | Age: 26 | $5.3 million
More: D.J. Augustin, Emmanuel Mudiay, Austin Rivers (player option), Evan Turner, Reggie Jackson, Shabazz Napier, Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Jevon Carter (restricted), Rajon Rondo (player option) and J.J. Barea.
Shooting guard
1. DeMar DeRozan (player option) | SAS | Age: 30 | $27.7 million
2. Joe Harris | BKN | Age: 28 | $7.7 million
3. Evan Fournier (player option) | ORL | Age: 27 | $17.1 million
4. Tim Hardaway Jr. (player option) | DAL | Age: 28 | $19.0 million
5. Malik Beasley (restricted) | MIN | Age: 23 | $2.7 million
More: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (player option), E'Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, Jordan Clarkson, Alec Burks, Kent Bazemore, Frank Jackson (restricted), Dwayne Bacon (restricted), Kent Bazemore, Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton, Courtney Lee, Marco Belinelli, Allen Crabbe, Avery Bradley (player option) and Wesley Matthews (player option).
Small forward
1. Brandon Ingram (restricted) | NOP | Age: 22 | $7.3 million
2. Gordon Hayward (player option) | BOS | Age: 30 | $32.7 million
3. Bogdan Bogdanovic (restricted) | SAC | Age: 27 | $8.5 million
4. Maurice Harkless | NYK | Age: 26 | $11.0 million
5. Torrey Craig (restricted) | DEN | Age: 29 | $2.0 million
More: Juan Hernangomez (restricted), James Ennis III (player option), Glenn Robinson III, Otto Porter Jr. (player option), Rodney Hood (player option), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kyle Korver.
Power forward
1. Danilo Gallinari | OKC | Age: 31 | $22.6 million
2. Jerami Grant (player option) | DEN | Age: 26 | $9.3 million
3. Serge Ibaka | TOR | Age: 30 | $23.3 million
4. Paul Millsap | DEN | Age: 35 | $30.4 million
5. Marcus Morris Sr. | LAC | Age: 30 | $15.0 million
6. Davis Bertans | WAS | Age: 27 | $7.0 million
More: Dario Saric (restricted), Kelly Olynyk (player option), Jeff Green, Bobby Portis (team), Kenrich Williams (restricted), Jabari Parker (player option), James Johnson (player option), Jae Crowder and JaMychal Green.
Center
1. Andre Drummond (player option) | CLE | Age: 26 | $27.1 million
2. Montrezl Harrell | LAC | Age: 26 | $6.0 million
3. Marc Gasol | TOR | Age: 35 | $25.6 million
4. Tristan Thompson | CLE | Age: 29 | $18.5 million
5. Derrick Favors | NOP | Age: 28 | $17.7 million
More: DeMarcus Cousins, Willie Cauley-Stein (player option), Jakob Poeltl (restricted), Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter (player option), Christian Wood, Hassan Whiteside, Robin Lopez (player option) and Mason Plumlee.
The teams
Last July, 14 NBA teams entered free agency with at least $20 million in room. This summer, that number projects to be five or six -- depending on how many teams decide to retain their own free agents.
Unlike Miami and (maybe) New York, four of the teams -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland and Phoenix -- are not considered marquee free-agent destinations. That is a big reason why the Hawks used cap space at the trade deadline while Cleveland and Memphis signed their own players to extensions.
Atlanta, Memphis and Cleveland might be content on organically building their rosters through the draft rather than overpaying in free agency. The Grizzlies waved the white flag on cap space to trade for Justise Winslow and the additional $28 million owed to Dion Waiters and James Johnson next season.
However, because 18 teams or more could have room in 2021, teams such as Atlanta and Charlotte could take advantage of a less crowded field of rivals and bolster their roster rather than wait.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Projected room: $45 million
Expected to remain: Trae Young, Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, Dewayne Dedmon, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, John Collins, Bruno Fernando and first-round pick (own)
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($2.9 million)
Situation: How the Hawks will use their money hinges on a decision: Do they make a move for multiple veterans in free agency or, as in previous years, take on bad contracts with draft assets attached?
The Capela trade did show that Atlanta is open for business -- despite a league-worst record, the Hawks took the unusual step of becoming a buyer at the deadline -- but they maintained future flexibility. Capela's $16 million salary in 2020-21 is less than half of what potential free agent Andre Drummond would earn on a max contract.
One thing to keep an eye on over the next two months is the fit between Collins and Capela. Collins is set to enter the last year of his contract and is extension-eligible this summer.
Atlanta can spend $25-30 million on roster upgrades this offseason and continue the process of player development while still having enough room for a max slot in 2021.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Projected room: $27 million
Expected to remain: Nicolas Batum (player option), Terry Rozier, Cody Zeller, Malik Monk, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges, Cody Martin, Devonte' Graham (non-guaranteed), Jalen McDaniels (non-guaranteed), Caleb Martin (non-guaranteed), Dwayne Bacon (free-agent hold) and first-round pick (own)
Situation: The most recent time Charlotte had cap flexibility, in 2016, the Hornets were coming off a first-round playoff loss to Miami and faced the decision of whether to prioritize their own free agents in Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lin.
What transpired was the Hornets committing $170 million to Williams and Batum, with the remaining cap space spent on Roy Hibbert and Ramon Sessions and the Hornets missing the playoffs. Those decisions put the team in salary-cap purgatory, resulting in four consecutive lottery appearances (including this year) and limiting their flexibility to build around Kemba Walker.
This offseason is different from 2016 because their own free agents are not a priority. The front office and coaching staff have put a heavy emphasis on player development, evident in the growth of Graham, Washington and Bridges. Like most other rebuilding teams, the Hornets will have multiple options for what to do with cap space.
Because Batum and Zeller come off the books after the 2020-21 season, they could spend all $27 million in cap room on two players who could help on the court and still have flexibility of up to $60 million for 2021-22. Despite an average free-agent market, Charlotte has an advantage because so few teams are projected to have cap space this summer.
The key offseason decision might be whether to extend Graham. Charlotte could extend Graham to a four-year, $50 million contract, but that would see the Hornets lose $10 million in room for the 2021-22 season.
DETROIT PISTONS
Projected room: $37 million
Expected to remain: Blake Griffin, Tony Snell, Derrick Rose, Luke Kennard, Sekou Doumbouya, Bruce Brown (non-guaranteed), Khyri Thomas (non-guaranteed), Svi Mykhailiuk (team option) and first-round pick (own)
Other charges: Incomplete roster charges ($2.9 million)
Situation: After trading Andre Drummond to Cleveland before he could opt in for 2020-21, the Pistons do not have to worry about cap flexibility. Detroit has a projected $37 million in room to find a starting point guard (like Fred VanVleet) and a center to replace Drummond.
MIAMI HEAT
Projected room: $27 million
Expected to remain: Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk (player option), Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, KZ Okpala, Kendrick Nunn (non-guaranteed), Duncan Robinson (non-guaranteed) and first-round pick (own)
Other charges: Ryan Anderson ($5.2 million), AJ Hammons ($350,000) and incomplete roster charge ($2.1 million)
Situation: The Heat joined the list of teams with cap space when they traded Dion Waiters and James Johnson, owed a combined $28 million next season.
While the trade does give it flexibility to build out the roster, don't expect Miami to go out and commit to four-year contracts on free agents. The Andre Iguodala extension with a team option for 2021-22 is evidence Miami is preserving room for the 2021 free agents. In that summer, the Heat could have up to $55 million in room.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Projected room: TBD
Guaranteed: Julius Randle, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox II, RJ Barrett, Ignas Brazdeikis and first-round pick (own)
Partial/non-guaranteed: Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, Wayne Ellington, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock and Mitchell Robinson
Other charges: None
Situation: The Knicks deserve a special mention because of the uncertainty about what they will do with the five players (other than Robinson) on non-guaranteed contracts. The easy play for Leon Rose, once he's installed as the new head of basketball operations, will be to waive each player and go free-agent shopping with the $50 million in projected room.
However, in the past few months New York should have learned the lesson that cap space can become fool's gold. Who exactly would the Knicks be spending that money on? The goal should be to have flexibility for the summer of 2021, even if that means returning the same roster. New York could have up to $80 million in room come 2021.
Aside from free agency, the Knicks could theoretically package players on expiring contracts and draft picks for a disgruntled superstar. Waiving those players and signing free agents to multiyear contracts would eliminate that option, too.
If the Knicks hire a new coach, he'll need to be on board with how the roster is constructed and have the patience to understand the team he inherits might not stay the same.
PHOENIX SUNS
Projected room: $20 million
Expected to remain: Devin Booker, Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre Jr., Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Ty Jerome, Jalen Lecque, Cheick Diallo (team option), Frank Kaminsky (player option) and Elie Okobo (non-guaranteed)
Situation: With Dario Saric having an inconsistent season, he is no longer expected to return, which would give Phoenix close to $20 million in room in July.
That number could increase to $25 million if the team option for Kaminsky is not exercised and Okobo is waived.
The wild-card teams
Cleveland Cavaliers
There is nothing wrong with the approach Cleveland took at the deadline. Instead of waiting to use its $27 million in cap space this summer, the Cavaliers went out and traded for one of the top potential free agents in Drummond.
The trade allows both team and player to use the remaining two months of the season to see if there is a fit on and off the court. If Drummond walks, Cleveland will have $25 million in room.
Toronto Raptors
This would be an unhappy scenario for Toronto, because it would mean VanVleet signed with a different team.
Because of his $17.8 million cap hold, the Raptors are right at the salary cap. If VanVleet signs elsewhere, Toronto will have $20 million in room but only nine players under contract.
Resources outside of cap space
The sign-and-trade
The summer of 2019 proved the sign-and-trade is still a way to acquire talent without cap space. That offseason, 11 players -- including Jimmy Butler, D'Angelo Russell and Terry Rozier -- were signed and traded to teams that were over the cap.
If there isn't a real market for DeMar DeRozan in 2020, a sign-and-trade could be a way for him to navigate to his next team. Of course, DeRozan would need to have a handshake agreement with that team and San Antonio before he opted out of his $27.7 million contract.
The midlevel exception
Teams are already labeling this offseason the summer of the midlevel exception. Because there are only six teams with projected room, expect the $9.8 million midlevel exception to become a valuable resource.
ESPN is projecting 19 teams to have the full midlevel exception available, which allows front offices to go over the cap to sign free agents. For comparison, 13 teams had the full midlevel in 2019, 16 in 2018 and nine in 2017.
The summer of 2021
We are still 17 months away, but teams have identified 2021 as the next great free-agent class.
It could include Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James (player option), Blake Griffin (player option), Paul George (player option), Kawhi Leonard (player option), Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday (player option) and Victor Oladipo. DeRozan and Drummond could be added to the group if they bypass free agency this July.
There is also the strong group of restricted free agents, including All-Stars Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo.
Combine the free agents mentioned here with 18 teams projected to carry max cap space and we could see extremely high roster turnover once again.