Which undervalued prospects should teams target heading into the 2020 NBA trade deadline?
Across the league, there are young players who aren't earning consistent minutes or living up to their pre-draft expectations. Situation, fit and opportunity play a large role here, and the Feb. 6 deadline is an opportune time for both contenders and rebuilding franchises to swing for a player ready to take on bigger roles.
Here are five buy-low or high-upside players who could thrive with more opportunity in better situations.
Bogdan Bogdanovic | Sacramento Kings
Few potentially available prospects could help a contender deep into a playoff run quite like Bogdanovic, one of the NBA's most underrated players. His ability to spot shoot, score and facilitate out of pick-and-rolls -- while holding his own defensively, given his competitiveness at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan -- should be extremely attractive to all of the league's top teams.
Bogdanovic brings a winning pedigree, even if he has yet to appear in an NBA playoff game. He was a EuroLeague champion and FIBA veteran prior to making his debut in the United States. Since his earliest days on the scouting radar, Bogdanovic has elevated his game when the stakes are highest. Bogdanovic went berserk over the course of seven games with Serbia at the 2019 World Cup, leading the tournament in player efficiency rating (PER of 35), points per 40 minutes (32.1) and win shares, all while shooting a scorching 60% from 2 and 52% from 3. He was the best player on the floor in Serbia's win over a Team USA squad featuring Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Donovan Mitchell.
Contenders would be wise to push in their assets to get him from the Kings, especially since a new team would hold his restricted rights in 2020 free agency. At the very least, Bogdanovic is a high-level sixth man who can operate as a primary ball handler in second units and play a big role in closing lineups. He also could make sense for a rebuilding team that has opportunity in its backcourt; Bogdanovic holds more upside than most 27-year-olds given what we've seen from him as a primary shot-creator when it is his team.
In Sacramento, with close to $200 million dollars committed to Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes -- and with De'Aaron Fox being the future of the backcourt -- Bogdanovic has a bit of a long-term ceiling. Whether it be a playoff squad that needs shot-making and toughness or a younger team willing to give him more offensive volume, Bogdanovic could be a trade-deadline coup if the Kings decide they are ready to make a deal.
Frank Ntilikina | New York Knicks
I've long been a fan of Ntilikina's physical tools, defensive versatility and unselfish style of play. Ntilikina won two youth European championships by age 18, and he started 36 of 59 games for Strasbourg during his draft season, showing maturity and winning impact. But in New York, Ntilikina has never had the confidence, handle, off-the-dribble shooting or point guard nuance to become a lead guard for the future of the franchise.
He has always been much better suited as a defense-oriented piece. Even after an impressive 2019 summer with the French national team, Ntilikina, while improving marginally, has been a lot of the same this season when asked to create in pick-and-roll.
He would be most valuable as a 3-and-D off-guard/wing who can play some second-side pick-and-roll. If the right team looks at him through that lens, it will see real value in the tough, rangy defender who doesn't turn 22 until July, making him younger than NBA rookies De'Andre Hunter, Rui Hachimura, Matisse Thybulle and Brandon Clarke. Prospects standing 6-foot-5 with a 7-foot wingspan and the ability to guard three positions like Ntilikina does are rare. Plus, Ntilikina's value on the trade market likely never will be lower.
As opposed to the role he currently is playing on a Knicks team full of hungry scorers, Ntilikina would be much more valuable in a winning environment where defense and basketball IQ are praised. A situational causality of sorts, Ntilikina might never live up to his No. 8 draft pick status, but landing in a spot that accentuates his strengths and dims his weaknesses could go a long way in turning his career around.
Lonnie Walker IV | San Antonio Spurs
One of my favorite non-lottery prospects from the 2018 NBA draft, the 21-year-old has had an up-and-down couple of seasons under head coach Gregg Popovich. Aside from a 28-point outburst in a win over the Rockets in December, Walker's highlights have been sparse through 34 games this season -- after spending the majority of his rookie campaign in the G League, which is becoming standard protocol for Spurs rookies.
Popovich appreciates smart offense and intense defense from his non-stars, and Walker's biggest questions entering the league were decision-making and defensive consistency. It is no surprise that the pairing hasn't always been a match.
These circumstances are what a deadline shopper should be looking for, as a young, rebuilding team ready to move a win-now veteran could help push the Spurs into the playoff mix while landing a steal in Walker. So if the Spurs decide to become deadline buyers, Walker should be an interesting piece given his athletic profile and shot-creating potential. On a young team with more freedom and the goal of development through reps, Walker could flash his scoring instincts and physical gifts.
Most effective playing off others out of catch-and-shoot and closeout situations right now, Walker has shown brief glimpses of shot-creation potential out of ball screens. His ability to rise up off the dribble at will could be the table setter for a dynamic pick-and-roll attack, should Walker develop more feel and finesse around the rim as a finisher. He has the tools to check either guard spot in a pinch, flourish in transition and score at all three levels.
The Spurs' front office likely remains high on the former first-round pick, but should San Antonio get aggressive at the deadline, Walker is the first name I'd target on that roster.
Robert Williams III | Boston Celtics
Injuries, Boston's window for contending and his own sometimes-shaky feel for the game have kept Williams from really emerging with the Celtics. A likely top-10 pick if he chose to leave Texas A&M after his freshman season, Williams returned to college, posted similar numbers and carried lingering questions about his approach to the game and his health -- major reasons he fell to the No. 27 pick.
But I wonder what Williams' career arc would have looked like if he had left as a freshman and ended up in a situation similar to that of Jarrett Allen with the Brooklyn Nets. So much of how players pan out comes down to fit and opportunity. Allen was able to take full advantage of his early playing time on a young Brooklyn team with few expectations. Although Allen is a bit bigger, there is no reason Williams -- a superior leaper -- couldn't have stepped in and shown similar promise as a rim-running, lob-catching, shot-blocking center.
Even with Williams dinged up and the Celtics having several bigs ahead of him on the depth chart, it is hard to imagine Boston simply giving up on the Time Lord. But Williams is the type of undervalued, springy center I'd prioritize in a deal with the Celtics, as he holds clear starter potential in the right situation.
There's no question that Williams needs to play with more consistent energy and discipline, but his catch radius and defensive range (1.9 steals and 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes in 53 career games) are high level. And the fact that he has shown glimpses of passing instincts in the past gives me hope that he could eventually be more than just a bench energizer.
Malik Beasley | Denver Nuggets
With his minutes seeming to fluctuate every season in Denver, Beasley has long looked like a classic buy-low prospect with starter potential, given his on-the-move shooting, straight-line explosion and overall energy.
Beasley hasn't had much opportunity to evolve as a pick-and-roll player thus far, but should the Nuggets look to add another veteran piece at the deadline, he is an interesting option for a young team that wants to get up and down and shoot 3s. A 40% 3-point shooter on his past 550-plus attempts, Beasley could thrive if unleashed with the ultimate green light out of a variety of actions, considering his ability to elevate on a dime. The 23-year-old Florida State product is an intriguing fit next to a big playmaking guard, as Beasley can focus on getting out in transition, making spot-up shots, attacking closeouts, sprinting off screens and checking point guards on the other end.
Aside from a spark here and there, it has been a run-of-the-mill season for Beasley, whose true shooting percentage is down from last year's 58.9% to 53.4%. But when given more shots, Beasley has more or less remained efficient, proving he can handle a larger load.
Beasley reportedly turned down a three-year, $30 million extension offer in the fall, which could give some franchises pause as heads toward restricted free agency. But he is a worthwhile target as a starter or sixth man on a team that isn't competing for the top spot in the Western Conference. He is good enough at his strengths to remain an efficient scorer and transition high flyer if given greater volume with the right pieces. He might never be a secondary ball handler or an advanced facilitator, but Beasley's shot-making and upside should be attractive at the deadline.