Will Joel Embiid's injury hamper the Philadelphia 76ers' pursuit of home-court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs?
Philadelphia's All-Star center will undergo surgery Friday to repair a torn radial collateral ligament in the ring finger in his left hand and will be reevaluated in 1-2 weeks, suggesting he'll miss at least the Sixers' next four games and potentially more than that.
Currently fifth in the East at 24-14, a game behind the Toronto Raptors for the fourth seed that ensures home court in the first round -- and a game ahead of the Indiana Pacers for sixth -- Philadelphia has gone 3-4 in the seven games Embiid has missed so far this season.
So how much ground might Embiid's absence cost them in the East standings? Let's take a look.
Horford's presence hasn't helped as much with Embiid sidelined
The possibility of Embiid missing time was one reason the 76ers signed Al Horford as a free agent last summer. Horford has started at power forward alongside Embiid but can slide to center to replace him. When Philadelphia is at full strength, having one of the two All-Stars on the court at all times has been a positive. The Sixers' net rating with Embiid on the bench is plus-0.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to minus-3.5 during the 2018-19 regular season.
Alas, Horford's presence hasn't translated into above-average play with Embiid out of the lineup entirely. While their biggest blowout of the season (a 47-point home win over the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers) came with Embiid watching on the bench, so have three of their four losses by 15 points or more.
Part of the problem is that Horford can't play all 48 minutes at center. (He has averaged 30 minutes when Embiid sits, topping out at 35 minutes.) Filling the remaining minutes will be a challenge for Philly. Playing the rival Boston Celtics on Thursday, the Sixers briefly used Ben Simmons at center before turning to Norvel Pelle, who's on a two-way contract. With Pelle's available NBA days dwindling (he's down to five, per ESPN's Bobby Marks), the 76ers would have to clear a roster spot to convert Pelle to a full NBA contract.
Above and beyond that, Philadelphia also has the issue of replacing Horford at power forward when he moves to center. They're still down a starter (and an elite one at that) on a top-heavy roster. The return of rookie wing Matisse Thybulle gives head coach Brett Brown, who started stretch-4 Mike Scott in place of Embiid on Thursday, another option on the perimeter. Still, Embiid's absence forces Brown deeper into a bench that's already low on reliable options.
Can the Sixers get necessary shooting?
Even with Horford as a defensive anchor, it's clear Philadelphia isn't going to be as effective at locking down opponents without Embiid's presence in the paint. So far this season, they've allowed teams to score 0.5% more points per 100 possessions than their usual offensive rating in games Embiid has missed, as compared to holding them 3.8% below their season average with Embiid.
If the Sixers are going to survive Embiid's absence, then, they're going to have to be effective offensively with better floor spacing. There's a blueprint here in the way Philadelphia finished the 2017-18 regular season with Embiid sidelined by an orbital fracture of his left eye, winning all eight games he missed with the NBA's second-best offensive rating over that span.
With Scott at power forward and Horford at center -- or with smaller lineups featuring Thybulle or fellow wings James Ennis III and Furkan Korkmaz in place of Embiid -- the 76ers can put four 3-point threats around Simmons, giving him more room to operate. But while Simmons has picked up his scoring in Embiid's absence -- he's averaging 20 points per 36 minutes in those seven games, as compared to 14.2 in all others -- the shooters haven't made the most of their opportunities. Philadelphia has shot just 32% on 3s in the seven games Embiid has missed, down from 37% when he plays. As a result, Simmons' assists per 36 minutes have declined from 9.2 per 36 minutes to 6.6 when Embiid sits.
Already, additional shooting was a need for the Sixers, who got key contributions from post-deadline buyout pickups Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova during that 2018 run. If Embiid misses more than a couple of weeks, that could add urgency for Philadelphia GM Elton Brand to make a move before the deadline.
76ers an underdog for home court?
Even before Thursday's news, projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index showed Philadelphia as about 50-50 to finish outside the East's top four. Having to go on the road to open the playoffs would be a disappointing outcome for a team expected to reach the conference finals after falling one game short last May on Kawhi Leonard's series-winning jumper.
The timing of Embiid's absence isn't ideal for the Sixers, who will travel to Dallas and Indiana after playing Boston on Thursday. If Philadelphia can get through that stretch, the schedule softens. The 76ers won't face another above-.500 opponent until they travel to play the Raptors on Jan. 22. Having Embiid back by then would be ideal for Philly, currently looking up at Toronto in the standings despite Leonard's departure.
Above and beyond the short-term impact, Embiid's injury also puts the process of integrating newcomers Horford and Josh Richardson on hold. Philadelphia's revamped starting lineup has played just 240 minutes together because of injuries and suspensions, a total that won't increase in the near future. Given all those factors, I'd currently bet against the 76ers finishing in the East's top four.