What's next for the Detroit Pistons after star forward Blake Griffin underwent knee surgery that will require "an extended rehabilitation period"?
With a hampered Griffin playing at a sub-replacement level this season, the Pistons had already slipped four games back of the Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and his surgery seems to snuff out their postseason hopes.
So what now for Detroit with center Andre Drummond headed toward possible unrestricted free agency? Have we already seen the last of the Griffin-Drummond pairing that led the Pistons back to the playoffs last spring?
Let's break down Detroit's options, including a possible Drummond trade by next month's deadline.
Drummond question looms large
Ahead of Tuesday's surgery for Griffin -- but after he was sidelined by knee soreness, portending trouble ahead -- ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported last week that the Pistons were escalating discussions with other teams about trading Drummond, who can be a free agent this summer if he declines a $28.8 million player option for the 2020-21 season.
That timeline is suboptimal for Detroit, which would likely have to offer a similar starting salary on a long-term contract to bring Drummond back. Doing so would tie up approximately $70 million in 2021-22 salary on the duo of Griffin (who holds a player option that season) and Drummond. The Pistons would be committing to a similar core for the foreseeable future despite Griffin aging (he turns 31 in March) and dealing with the cumulative effect of a series of knee surgeries.
Given that daunting prospect, it's easy to see why Detroit might prefer getting value for Drummond now and maintaining salary flexibility. Griffin is currently the only Pistons player with a guaranteed contract beyond 2020-21. Though starting shooting guard Luke Kennard will be due a new deal by then, Detroit would have ample room to add around a younger core that will probably be bolstered by a 2020 lottery pick.
The biggest question about a Drummond trade is whether the Pistons can attract multiple suitors to build leverage. Few teams are in the market for a high-priced center, and some of those who might have interest -- most notably the Boston Celtics -- would have a tough time matching salary. Boston would have to send back guard Marcus Smart and centers Enes Kanter and Daniel Theis, and even that package would require Drummond to waive part of his trade bonus for the trade to work under CBA rules.
As a result, the Atlanta Hawks -- who have talked seriously with the Pistons about Drummond, per Wojnarowski's report -- might be able to wait out Detroit in the hopes of minimizing the price. Atlanta could offer cap relief with the expiring contract of forward Chandler Parsons, and Wojnarowski reported conversations have also included the first-round pick the Nets owe to the Hawks if the Nets make the playoffs.
It's unclear whether that offer alone would be enough to land Drummond, whom Pistons owner Tom Gores called a "top priority" to retain as recently as media day. (Gores was less committal about Drummond while speaking with Detroit media last week.)
Time for Pistons to evaluate young talent
Detroit has enough young talent on hand that trading Drummond need not entail a full teardown. That starts with Kennard, whose own injury (bilateral knee tendinitis) has been a factor in the Pistons' recent swoon. (Detroit is 2-7 in the nine games Kennard has missed.) In his third season, Kennard has taken a solid step forward as a full-time starter, knocking down 2.6 3-pointers per game and providing solid playmaking off the ball.
While fellow starting guard Bruce Brown has been stretched running the team's offense at times with Reggie Jackson sidelined since the season's first week, his capable defense at either backcourt position and bargain salary ($1.7 million for 2020-21) mark the 2018 second-round pick as a keeper.
If Drummond is traded, backup big man Christian Wood is capable of stepping into a larger role. Playing both frontcourt spots, Wood has been typically productive in a more regular role this season, averaging 20.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes while making 67% of his 2-point attempts and 38% of his 3s. Wood, whose minimum contract will guarantee for the remainder of the season later this week, has earned an opportunity to see whether he can maintain that productivity in starter's minutes.
The ability to give 2019 first-round pick Sekou Doumbouya playing time has been a silver lining of Griffin's injury. After spending much of his first two months in the G League, the 19-year-old Doumbouya -- the NBA's youngest player this season -- has started the past three games, recording a pair of double-doubles.
If the focus shifts to evaluating young players, the Pistons should also look to get what they can for the veterans they signed this offseason in preparation for what they anticipated would be a playoff run. There should be a strong market for Derrick Rose, the former MVP who has evolved into a quality bench scorer over the last two seasons and has perhaps been the second-best Detroit player over the course of the season behind Drummond.
It's reasonable for the Pistons to expect a quality second-round pick or two from a contender for Rose, though a first-round pick is probably too much to ask unless they take back salary beyond this season. Detroit should also explore whether there's interest in forward Markieff Morris, who's currently dealing with a foot sprain but should be healthy by the deadline.
The side benefit of a youth movement for the Pistons is improving their chances at a top pick in this year's NBA draft. Notably absent from Detroit's group of young players is a long-term option at point guard, with Jackson's contract expiring this summer. With five point guards in the top eight of ESPN's best available prospects, this year's draft looks like an ideal time for the Pistons to land a point guard. And depending on how the team fares over the next three months, Detroit could have its choice of several of them.
The Pistons are tied with the Chicago Bulls for the league's seventh-worst record, but Detroit is only a game away from falling to the fifth-worst record. So the Pistons could easily end up with their highest draft pick since taking Darko Milicic No. 2 overall 17 years ago.