When the NBA released the early votes for the 2020 NBA All-Star Game, Trae Young was at the top of the list among all guards in the Eastern Conference.
Does Young deserve to be an All-Star in his sophomore campaign? He's putting up some impressive numbers, ranking fourth in the NBA with 28.5 PPG and fifth with 8.3 APG. But his Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the league.
Is the man they call Ice Trae putting up empty stats on a bad team, or is he really the only bright spot in a rebuilding situation and worthy to stand with the best of the best?
Buy or sell: Trae Young should be an All-Star
Everything runs through Young
Few players carry a bigger offensive load than Young does for the Hawks. He ranks fifth in the NBA with 21.0 shot attempts per game and 15th with 56.1 passes per game, according to Second Spectrum. There are no players ahead of Young on both lists, and Young is also fifth in the league with 21.8 passes leading to a shot per game. His usage rate of 34.6% trails only those of Giannis Antetokounmpo (37.8%), James Harden (36.7%) and Luka Doncic (34.6%).
Young's scoring production is more about volume than efficiency, and his inefficiency, shown by his pedestrian 52.5% eFG, can be traced to the types of shots he takes. Young attempts very difficult shots, according to Second Spectrum's shot quality measure. On the other hand, he converts those difficult shots at a relatively good clip, ranking 61st in Second Spectrum's qSI, which estimates that his eFG% is 4.6% higher than one would expect on the shots that he takes.
According to Second Spectrum, Young also uses significantly more on-ball screens as the ball handler than any other player in the NBA. His 50.8 picks used per game is 7.5 more than those of second-ranked Devonte' Graham of the Charlotte Hornets. Young uses those on-ball picks to create offense for both himself and his teammates, as he also leads the league with 35.6 direct picks per game that end a possession (in shots, passes that lead directly to shots or turnovers).
Thus, not only is Young the primary finisher and setup man, but by utilizing so many on-ball screens, he is also bringing his teammates into each set and keeping the unit engaged in each possession's outcome despite his ball dominance.
Young stretching the floor and driving to the rim
Young is fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts and seventh in 3-point makes, knocking down 35.3% of his 8.9 attempts per game. But those stats don't capture the actual distance of his 3-point shots. Young is the NBA's most prolific shooter from extra-long distance, adding to his degree of difficulty but also creating spacing. According to Second Spectrum, Young's average 3-pointer has been from 27.8 feet away during his first two seasons, tops in the league in that span. He has made 48 3-pointers from more than 30 feet during that span, whereas no other player has made even 30 such shots.
Young's super-long range stretches opposing defenses in ways that dramatically open up the court for teammates to operate. As we've seen with the Splash Brothers, Harden and Doncic, Young is able to force opponents to stretch their defenses well beyond the 3-point arc, warping the defensive scheme in ways that are advantageous for the offense. Couple this with his heavy usage of the on-ball screen, and the Hawks' pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop game with Young brings multiple opposing defenders, including big men, outside of their comfort sphere.
Young takes advantage of these warped defenses, using his quickness off the dribble to drive into the paint and make things happen for his offense. Per Second Spectrum, Young leads the NBA in both drives (19.9 drives per game) and direct drives (16.6 direct drives per game).
Young's offensive impact vs. defensive weakness
Young's offensive repertoire presents a compelling case -- on one side of the court, at least -- for his All-Star bid, which is supported by ESPN's real plus-minus. Young's offensive real plus-minus is 4.26, sixth-best in the league. The only names ahead of Young in ORPM, and thus the only players whose presence on the court coincides with a more positive impact on their team's offensive scoring margins, are Antetokounmpo, Harden, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns and Doncic.
On the flip side, however, Young ranks seventh-worst in the NBA in defensive real plus-minus with a rating of minus-3.7. This indicates that the Hawks' defense is estimated to be 3.7 points worse per 100 possessions when Young is on the court, giving back a good portion of the points he generates on offense.
Young is relatively short and slight for the position and has not shown the physicality to fight through screens the way the best defensive guards do. While Young's defensive shortcomings might not come directly into play in the All-Star voting, they do have an impact on wins and losses, and the Hawks are 7-28, with the third-worst defensive rating. Perhaps the biggest question about Young going forward is whether he can provide more resistance on the defensive end.
Bottom line
Young measures out as one of the best, most versatile, most impactful offensive players in the NBA but also demonstrates defensive weakness that has made him a liability at that end of the floor. A strong team could be built around a lead guard with Young's capabilities, while his defensive shortcomings could be hidden better.
Ultimately, his impressive stats do in fact translate to a huge offensive impact. Thus, I buy that Young does deserve to be an All-Star in just his sophomore season.