NBA draft No. 1 pick debate: LaMelo, Edwards or Wiseman?

What has changed in the 2020 NBA draft No. 1 pick race since the college basketball season began?

Memphis big man James Wiseman originally had the top spot, but he won't return to the court until Jan. 12 following an NCAA suspension. In Wiseman's absence, Georgia's Anthony Edwards and the NBL's LaMelo Ball have both put up extraordinary performances that have helped their cases as the top prospect.

So who should be No. 1 now? What do NBA teams think? And how close is the race among these three prospects?

ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz dive into the debate as Ball moves to No. 1 in our new rankings.

MORE: Top 100 NBA draft rankings

What is the case for and against LaMelo Ball at No. 1?

Givony: We outlined in September why Ball was making a strong case for No. 1. That drumbeat has only gotten stronger over the past two months, reaching a crescendo with his exhilarating 32-point, 13-rebound, 11-assist performance Monday in an overtime victory against Cairns in the Australian league. That could very well end up being the single-most impressive performance by a draft prospect all season. The fact that it came in a pro game featuring four former NBA players and a host of seasoned veterans will make it very difficult for any college basketball player to top.

Ball struggled with his shooting early in the season but has been on a tear over the past five games, averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals while shooting 13-for-37 (38%) from 3. His team, the Illawarra Hawks, has also won two of its past three.

There are only a handful of players in the NBA who can legitimately play point guard at 6-foot-7 like Ball. The mastery he has displayed operating in pick-and-roll gives him the ability to control a game unlike any player in this draft class. Ball is the youngest prospect in our top 20 and still has a huge amount of room to grow -- both physically and in terms of skill -- giving him the highest upside of any player in the draft.

He has made a huge jump on the defensive end already, playing with much more focus and intensity, following his team's scouting report and coming up with a number of key stops late. Combine that with his creativity, basketball IQ and scoring touch and you're talking about a player with absolutely special talent who simply doesn't come around often, which is why he has risen to No. 1 on our board.

However, I believe that if the draft were held today, he probably would not be the No. 1 pick. Of course, that will heavily depend on the team that ends up winning the May lottery. But both Schmitz and I have just received a significant amount of blowback from NBA teams who say that they simply don't trust Ball enough to hand him the keys to their franchise. They worry about what all the attention around him will do to their team culture, how strong his work ethic is and whether his father, LaVar, could become a distraction.

Once teams really dig into the film, get more background intel and seriously start to consider the possibility of passing on the most talented player in the draft, I do think they'll come around. Ball would help his chances by finishing out the season strong, continuing to help his team win games and staying engaged defensively.

What is the case for and against Anthony Edwards at No. 1?

Schmitz: The Maui Invitational was the perfect demonstration of Edwards as a prospect.

When he's on, he's nearly unstoppable, looking every bit like the draft's top prospect. A 6-foot-5 wrecking ball who can get to his pull-up against virtually any defender, Edwards showed glimpses of stardom during his 33-point second-half outburst against Michigan State with a slew of NBA execs sitting courtside. Against Aaron Henry, the Spartans' best perimeter defender, Edwards rose up from NBA range without breaking a sweat, got to midrange spots comfortably and even started flying around defensively, putting his range and near 7-foot wingspan to good use. He showed spirit and charisma in one of the most impressive stretches of shot-making I've ever seen, one that even strong NBA defenders couldn't have shut down.

NBA scouts gushed about Edwards' scoring instincts, while also getting a brief window into his untapped passing instincts, as he threaded the needle through defenders in the open court. It's easy to see a dialed-in Edwards functioning like Donovan Mitchell or Victor Oladipo in the NBA -- a combo guard who plays off the ball, but one who can go get a bucket from all three levels down the stretch. One of the youngest players in the draft, Edwards is also well ahead of both Mitchell and Oladipo at the same stage of his development.

With Wiseman out and Ball halfway across the world, if Edwards turns in a productive, efficient season, it's easy to see scouts feeling most comfortable with him at the top of the draft. A 225-pound athlete who can get offense whenever he wants will be extremely attractive to any team selecting No. 1 come June.

But for as good as Edwards was during that 16-minute stretch against Michigan State, what about the Dayton game, when he scored six points on 10 shots while looking lost on both ends? And what about the first half of the MSU game, when scouts were ready to seriously question Edwards as a potential top prospect? When Edwards is down and those difficult pull-ups aren't falling, his still-evolving feel for the game and dips in energy stand out. He settles for contested jumpers early in the clock rather than using his linebacker frame and force to get to the front of the rim. He'll take possessions off defensively, ball-watching when in help position or not sitting in a stance on the ball.

Unless the Bulldogs improve significantly, Edwards' evaluation becomes a bit tricky if most of his production comes in losses. We've seen this with Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Trae Young and a handful of other top prospects who were on the wrong side of lopsided defeats. It doesn't make for the cleanest evaluation. Edwards doesn't come from a successful high school program, either, and whether his style is conducive to winning has long been a question.

Still, there aren't many teenagers in the world who can take over a game the way Edwards did in Hawai'i. And he did it without ideal spacing while also being asked to play his fair share of point guard, which is new to him. Although his performance was uneven overall, Edwards showed more than enough wow factor to be considered the top prospect in the 2020 draft as it stands now.

Is this a two-player race until Wiseman returns?

Givony: My gut wants me to say yes, but without knowing who will actually get the No. 1 pick, that's probably a little too strong of a statement at the moment.

More than anything, I think what's working against Wiseman is just how limited an impact a center in his mold can have on today's NBA game compared to a player like Ball -- or Edwards, to a lesser extent. Having star players who can create a huge volume of efficient offensive possessions with their ability to dribble, pass and shoot is paramount. Among the top 40 NBA players in total points and assist opportunities created per game this season, only five -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid -- are true bigs, per Second Spectrum tracking data.

We just haven't seen enough shot creation out of Wiseman to come anywhere close to feeling comfortable projecting him being able to play a role similar to those guys. Plus, his impact defensively has been pretty inconsistent, something that makes it difficult to see him compensating for his lack of offensive prowess by becoming an otherworldly defensive stopper, like Embiid or Rudy Gobert.

So, sure, Wiseman is only getting started, and he will have plenty of opportunities to impress scouts when he returns on Jan. 12. The real question: How valuable is a guy like him, even operating at max potential, compared to Ball or Edwards?

Who is your No. 1 prospect right now?

Givony: I'm going with Ball, both because of the things I described earlier as well as some of the reservations I have about Edwards.

For as impressive a half as Edwards had against Michigan State, part of me wonders if there's some fool's gold there. His attempts were so tough that it might be unlikely to expect that production game in and game out. Until I see Edwards consistently create and convert as many easy looks for himself and teammates as he does difficult ones, my vote for No. 1 will be with Ball.

A bigger, stronger, longer, more athletic version of Lou Williams sounds awesome in theory, but you need more than that to win games on nights when the jumper isn't falling. Let's see if Edwards is able to get going inside the arc a little more as the season moves on. So far his finishing in the half court has been fairly pedestrian -- he's shooting under 50% inside the paint, per Synergy Sports tracking, and he's not even getting there very often, averaging fewer than four shots per game. On top of that, he's sporting a near 1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Part of that is due to the personnel around him -- and partially due to his own propensity to settle -- but there's a lot of room for improvement.

Ball's sample size is bigger and more impressive at the moment. But we still have a lot of basketball left.

Schmitz: For as high as I am on Edwards, I still give the slight edge to Ball. His feel and creativity as a 6-7 point guard gives him franchise-changing potential. There's no question that Edwards has all the ingredients to become a future star and eventually one of the more dynamic scorers in the NBA, but Ball's vision, basketball instincts, flair and never-ending confidence give him superstar upside pending his landing spot and how he develops. Edwards is certainly more physically gifted and a better half-court scorer. However, his feel for the game remains a question.

I don't think there's a huge gap between the two, though. It's more a matter of preference, as they're very different prospects. Should Edwards continue improving his habits and start taking over games for Georgia, he'll certainly challenge Ball for the top spot. But for now, I'll roll with LaMelo.

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