Will James Harden join Wilt Chamberlain as the only players in NBA history to average 40 points per game?
Through the first 15 games of the 2019-20 season, Harden's average of 38.40 PPG would be the third-highest ever, narrowly surpassing Chamberlain's 38.39 PPG in 1960-61. The following two seasons, Chamberlain surpassed the 40 PPG barrier, including a record 50.4 PPG in 1961-62. Since then, Michael Jordan's 37.1 PPG in 1986-87 is the most on record, with Harden's own 2018-19 output (36.1 PPG) ranking second in the past five decades.
Is it realistic for Harden to hit 40 PPG? And, failing that, what are his chances of surpassing Jordan for the greatest modern scoring output? Let's take a look.
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Harden's scoring increase driven by faster pace
Remarkably, Harden's prodigious scoring start has actually seen him score slightly less on a per-possession basis than last season, declining from 48.2 points per 100 possessions to 47.8. Harden is playing essentially the same number of minutes per game (36.7 vs. 37.8 in 2019-20), so we can trace his increased output to a simple explanation: more opportunities to score.
Last season's Houston Rockets ranked 27th in the NBA in possessions per 48 minutes. This season, their pace has surged all the way to third. Factor in a faster pace leaguewide and the result is seven extra possessions per game for Harden, providing a 7% boost to his scoring numbers.
We can credit the arrival of Russell Westbrook for the Rockets speeding up. With Westbrook on the bench and Harden on the court, Houston is playing only marginally faster than last season, a change that would merely keep up with the rest of the league. Put the turbocharged Westbrook on the court with Harden, however, and Houston's pace increases by seven possessions per 48 minutes compared to Harden-only minutes, according to NBA Advanced Stats data.
Will the Rockets keep it up? Yes and no. They'll likely remain one of the league's fastest teams barring an extended Westbrook absence. The difference in team paces over the first 15 games has predicted about 80% of their spread over the full schedule the past five seasons, indicating the fastest teams early on remain the fastest all season. But pace generally tends to slow over the course of the season, and early outliers are pulled back toward the pack. Based on the past five seasons, we'd expect Houston to lose about 2.5 possessions per game by the end of the season, which would drop Harden's scoring average to 37.5 PPG if he maintains the same per-possession rate.
Fortunately for Harden, there's reason to believe he can score more efficiently than he has so far.
Harden not yet shooting well
The way Harden has piled up points early in the season is all the more remarkable given he began the year in a shooting slump. Over his first five games, Harden shot just 14-of-70 (20%) from beyond the arc, worse than any five-game stretch he had in the entire 2018-19 regular season. Since then, Harden has canned a cool 42% of his 3-point attempts, but his season mark (34.6%) is still slightly down from his near-37% shooting in both 2017-18 and 2018-19.
Watching Harden play, I suspected he was hunting more difficult pull-up attempts this season with the goal of further increasing his 3-point rate (3s have made up 56% of his shots this season, up from 54% last season). However, according to Second Spectrum's shot quality data, this isn't the case. Its qSQ (quantified shot quality) measure shows that a typical shooter would post an effective field goal percentage of 46.1% on Harden's 3-point attempts based on his location, type and the distance of nearby defenders. By contrast, last season, Harden's 3-pointers had a qSQ of 45.2%. (Harden actually shot an effective 55.2% on his 3s, showing his skill on making difficult attempts.)
Naturally, 3-point attempts are particularly important for Harden since he takes so many of them. If he were shooting around 37% from beyond the arc, as he did the previous two seasons, that would be an additional four or five 3-pointers thus far, equivalent on the high end to an extra point per game. That would be enough to offset the expected decline in his scoring due to the Rockets' pace slowing, allowing him to finish near his current average.
Help necessary for Harden to get to 40
Given Houston's fast pace and his potential improvement from beyond the arc, Harden stands an excellent chance of surpassing Jordan's 37.1 PPG to become the most prolific scorer in a season since Wilt. Cracking the 40-point barrier, though, will take more than what we've seen from Harden so far. That could mean an extended hot streak from beyond the arc. If Harden shot a career-high 40% from 3-point range over the course of the season, that would translate into about an extra half a 3-pointer per game above and beyond what we'd expect if he shot around 37% -- another 1.5 points per game.
Alternatively, it's possible Harden could take on a larger share of the offense if and when Westbrook is out of the lineup. (Westbrook has missed two games this season.) So far, both Harden and Westbrook have been able to maintain their 2018-19 usage rates while playing together, largely because the Rockets have few other shot creators with Eric Gordon sidelined following knee surgery. No other rotation player has a usage rate higher than 16.2% of Houston's plays, while two players (starter PJ Tucker and reserve Tyson Chandler) are finishing fewer than 10% of plays on the court with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover.
Whenever Westbrook's 30.1% usage rate is out of the lineup, we could see Harden take on an enormous role similar to what he undertook last season when Chris Paul was sidelined. During that monthlong stretch, Harden finished an incredible 43.8% of the Rockets' plays, more than any player has over a full season since individual turnovers were first tracked in 1976-77. (Since then, Westbrook's 40.2% usage in 2016-17 is the highest on record using NBA Advanced Stats' version of the formula.)
Last, it's possible Harden could make 40 PPG a target if he's close, staying in games to reach the mark much like we saw Westbrook do with triple-doubles in 2016-17.
Still, I think other factors will more likely conspire to work against Harden than help him. A healthy Gordon could take on a larger share of the offense after his return, and free throw rates typically decline over the course of the season -- a problem for Harden, whose free throw rate is way up this season after declining the past two.
Realistically, Harden is more likely to settle in between 37 and 38 PPG -- still a staggering number in the context of recent NBA history -- than push his average all the way to 40. If so, he has a solid chance of eclipsing Jordan to become the new leader in the non-Chamberlain class of the NBA's greatest single-season scorers.